A Prospectively Validated Prognostic Model for Patients with Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck Based on Radiomics of Computed Tomography Images

Background: Locoregionally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients have high relapse and mortality rates. Imaging-based decision support may improve out-comes by optimising personalised treatment, and support patient risk stratification. We propose a multifactorial prognostic model including radiomics features to improve risk stratification for advanced HNSCC, compared to TNM eighth edition, the gold standard. Patient and methods: Data of 666 retrospective-and 143 prospective-stage III-IVA/B HNSCC patients were collected. A multivar-iable Cox proportional-hazards model was trained to predict overall survival (OS) using diagnostic CT-based radiomics features extracted from the primary tumour. Separate analyses were performed using TNM8, tumour volume, clinical and biological variables, and combinations thereof with radi-omics features. Patient risk stratification in three groups was assessed through Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves. A log-rank test was performed for significance (p-value < 0.05). The prognostic accuracy was reported through the concordance index (CI). Results: A model combining an 11-feature radiomics signature, clinical and biological variables, TNM8, and volume could significantly stratify the validation cohort into three risk groups (p < 0∙01, CI of 0.79 as validation). Conclusion: A combination of radiomics features with other predictors can predict OS very accurately for advanced HNSCC patients and improves on the current gold standard of TNM8

The important role of cisplatin in the treatment of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer assessed by real-world data analysis

Objectives: The prognostic advantage of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) resulted in the initiation of treatment de-intensification studies. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported inferior survival of HPV-positive OPSCC treated with radiotherapy plus cetuximab compared to standard of care radiotherapy plus cisplatin. In this study we investigated whether the important role of cisplatin in the treatment of HPV-positive OPSCCs would also emerge from causal inference analyses of real-world data.Material and methods: A retrospective cohort of 263 advanced-stage OPSCC-patients from 5 European clinics was studied, treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone or cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT) based on standard clinical indications. Causal inference was applied to adjust for treatment assignment, thereby simulating a randomized setting. Average treatment effect of concurrent cisplatin on overall survival (OS) probability was estimated using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Bayesian logistic regression.Results: Significantly better survival probabilities were found for HPV-positive OPSCC treated with CRT compared to RT alone (3-year OS probability 0.961 versus 0.798, p = 0.008).Conclusion: This study using causal inference of retrospective patient data confirms the important role of cisplatin in the treatment of HPV-positive OPSCC. Causal inference analyses of real-world data complements the evidence from the published RCTs

Evaluation of the eighth TNM classification on p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas in the Netherlands and the importance of additional HPV DNA testing

Background: Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) are traditionally caused by smoking and excessive alcohol consumption. However, in the last decades high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections play an increasingly important role in tumorigenesis. HPV-driven OPSCCs are known to have a more favorable prognosis, which has led to important and marked changes in the recently released TNM-8. In this 8th edition, OPSCCs are divided based on p16 immunostaining, with p16 overexpression as surrogate marker for the presence of HPV. The aims of this study are to evaluate TNM-8 on a Dutch consecutive cohort of patients with p16-positive OPSCC and to determine the relevance of additional HPV DNA testing. Patients and methods: All OPSCC patients without distant metastases at diagnosis and treated with curative intent at VU University Medical Center (2000-2015) and Erasmus Medical Center (2000-2006) were included (N=1204). HPV status was determined by p16 immunostaining followed by HPV DNA PCR on the p16-immunopositive cases. We compared TNM-7 and TNM-8 using the Harrell's C index. Results: In total, 388 of 1204 (32.2%) patients were p16-immunopositive. In these patients, TNM-8 had a markedly better predictive prognostic power than TNM-7 (Harrell's C index 0.63 versus 0.53). Of the 388 p16-positive OPSCCs, 48 tumors (12.4%) were HPV DNA-negative. This subgroup had distinct demographic, clinical and morphologic characteristics and showed a significantly worse five-year overall survival compared with the HPV DNA-positive tumors (P < 0.001). Conclusions: TNM-8 has a better predictive prognostic power than TNM-7 in patients with p16-positive OPSCC. However, within p16-positive OPSCCs, there is an HPV DNA-negative subgroup with distinct features and a worse overall survival, indicating the importance to perform additional HPV DNA testing when predicting prognosis and particularly for selecting patients for de-intensified treatment regimens