An RBC model with non-Ricardian households: lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2018)

Purpose: We introduce non-Ricardian ("hand-to-mouth") myopic agents into an other- wise standard real-business-cycle (RBC) setup augmented with a detailed government sector.We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of non-optimizing households for cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. Design Methodology/approach: We calibrate the RBC model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2018). Findings: We find that the inclusion of such non-Ricardian households improves model performance along several dimensions and generally provides a better match vis-a-vis data, as compared to the standard model populated with Ricardian agents only. Originality/value: This is a novel finding in the macroeconomic studies on Bulgaria using modern quantitative methods

Disparities in cataract surgery between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in New South Wales, Australia

<b>Background:</b> To investigate variation in rates of cataract surgery in New South Wales (NSW), Australia by area of residence for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal adults.<p></p> <b>Design:</b> Observational data linkage study of hospital admissions.<p></p> <b>Participants:</b> 289 646 NSW residents aged 30 years and over admitted to NSW hospitals for 444 551 cataract surgery procedures between 2001 and 2008.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> Analysis of linked routinely collected hospital data using direct standardisation and multilevel negative binomial regression models accounting for clustering of individuals within Statistical Local Areas (SLAs).<p></p> <b>Main outcome measures:</b> Age-standardised cataract surgery rates and adjusted rate ratios (ARRs).<p></p> <b>Results:</b> Aboriginal people had lower rates of cataract procedures than non-Aboriginal people of the same age and sex, living in the same SLA (ARR 0.71, 95% CI 0.68-0.75). There was significant variation in cataract surgery rates across SLAs for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people, with the disparity higher in major cities and less disadvantaged areas. Rates of surgery were lower for Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people in most SLAs, but in a few, the rates were similar or higher for Aboriginal people.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> Aboriginal people in NSW received less cataract surgery than non-Aboriginal people, despite evidence of higher cataract rates. This disparity was greatest in urban and wealthier areas. Higher rates of surgery for Aboriginal people observed in some specific locations are likely to reflect the availability of public ophthalmology services, targeted services for Aboriginal people and higher demand for surgery in these populations.<p></p&gt

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 – 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986–2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group.</p

Young Boys Learning to Fear, Hate and Harm: A Recipe for Sustaining Tribal Political Violence in Jamaica's Garrisons

This article is part of a larger report, ‘Young Birds that Know Storm: Life Experiences of Boys of Ages 6–8 Years Living in Communities of Extreme Poverty and Violence’. Data from life histories of Jamaican inner city boys aged 6–8 suggest there is a deliberate attempt by politicians and some community members and parents to encourage boys to fear, hate and harm people who support the rival political party. The closer the boys lived to the headquarters of political gangs or garrisons, the more likely they were to have a close relationship with the MPs, councillors and political activists who oversee the ‘corners’ of the communities, and the more violent their behaviour, suggesting that training in political tribalism affects the boys' relationship with their peers. Only boys who received a high level of nurture and supervision seemed to absorb little of the training to harm supporters of the opposing party

Predictors of PTSD and CPTSD in UK firefighters

Background: Globally, professional firefighters are often exposed to traumatic events and are at high risk of developing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Objective: With the publication of the 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) there arose a need for research based on the new diagnostic criteria, and the associated disorder, Complex PTSD (CPTSD). Method: Participants were 1300 former or present firefighters from the UK. Prevalence rates of PTSD and CPTSD were estimated using International Trauma Questionnaire in accordance with ICD-11 criteria, and service related and personal trauma exposure were also assessed using an anonymous online questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to assess how service and personal trauma exposure predicted PTSD and CPTSD. Results: CPTSD criteria were met by 18.23% (95% CI 16.13–20.33%) and PTSD criteria were met by 5.62% (95% CI 4.37–6.87%) of the sample. Experiencing higher levels of service-related trauma significantly increased the risk for both PTSD and CPTSD, and nonwork related trauma uniquely predicted CPTSD but not PTSD. Conclusions: This study provided the first examination of the new ICD-11 criteria for PTSD and CPTSD in a large sample of firefighters, and CPTSD was more common than PTSD. Exposure to multiple different types of trauma increased the odds of PTSD and CPTSD

Exploring disparities in acute myocardial infarction events between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians: roles of age, gender, geography and area-level disadvantage

We investigated disparities in rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in the 199 Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) in New South Wales, Australia. Using routinely collected and linked hospital and mortality data from 2002 to 2007, we developed multilevel Poisson regression models to estimate the relative rates of first AMI events in the study period accounting for area of residence. Rates of AMI in Aboriginal people were more than two times that in non-Aboriginal people, with the disparity greatest in more disadvantaged and remote areas. AMI rates in Aboriginal people varied significantly by SLA, as did the Aboriginal to non-Aboriginal rate ratio. We identified almost 30 priority areas for universal and targeted preventive interventions that had both high rates of AMI for Aboriginal people and large disparities in rates

Prevalence of Dyslipidemia among Korean Adults: Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey 1998-2005

BackgroundDyslipidemia is a disorder of lipid metabolism, including elevated total cholesterol, elevated triglyceride, elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and decreased high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). The objective of this study was to investigate recent changes in the prevalence of dyslipidemia and also the rates of awareness, treatment, and control of dyslipidemia among Korean adults.MethodsDyslipidemia is defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III as total cholesterol ≥240 mg/dL, LDL-C ≥160 mg/dL, HDL-C <40 mg/dL, and triglyceride ≥200 mg/dL. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was estimated for adults aged ≥20 years using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHANES) in 1998 (n=6,923), 2001 (n=4,882), and 2005 (n=5,323). Rates of awareness, treatment and control of dyslipidemia were calculated for adults aged ≥30 years using the KNHANES in 2005 (n=4,654).ResultsThe prevalence of dyslipidemia (aged ≥20 years) increased from 32.4% in 1998 to 42.6% in 2001 and 44.1% in 2005. Compared with the KNHANES in 1998, the prevalence of dyslipidemia was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35% to 59%) higher in 2001 and 61% (95% CI, 49% to 75%) higher in 2005. In 2005, only 9.5% of people with dyslipidemia were aware of the disease, 5.2% used lipid-lowering medication, and 33.2% of patients with treatment reached treatment goals.ConclusionThe prevalence of dyslipidemia in Korea gradually increased between 1998 and 2005. These findings suggest that more intense efforts for the prevention and treatment of dyslipidemia may lead to further improvement in the management of dyslipidemia