Prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus in a South Indian rural community

Background: To estimate the prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency in a rural south Indian community and to evaluate the association between metformin use and prevalent vitamin B12 deficiency in people with T2DM stratified by oral vitamin B12 supplementation.Methods: Using a cross sectional study design, a random sample of people with T2DM (N=438) was recruited from a rural community. Vitamin B12 deficiency was defined as serum B12 ≤200pg/ml. Data on metformin dose, duration of use, oral vitamin B12 supplementation, and diet were collected. Laboratory measurements included complete blood count, tests for hepatic, renal, and thyroid function, as well as serum vitamin B12 levels and HbA1c.Results: The prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency in people with T2DM was 11.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 8.2%-14.1%). The odds of vitamin B12 deficiency in patients receiving a metformin dose of 2 grams/day were 4 times higher compared to those receiving ≤1 gram/day, after adjusting for oral B12 supplementation (odds ratio 4.2;95% CI 1.5-11.8). The odds of vitamin B12 deficiency in those taking metformin and receiving oral vitamin B12 supplementation were lower compared to those on metformin and not receiving vitamin B12 supplementation (adjusted odds ratio 0.20; 95% CI 0.06-0.70).Conclusions: Vitamin B12 deficiency affects 1 in 10 people with T2DM, is associated with higher dose metformin use, and oral vitamin B12 supplementation mitigates B12 deficiency in this group

Park availability and major depression in individuals with chronic conditions: Is there an association in urban India?

Green space exposure has been positively correlated with better mental-health indicators in several high income countries, but has not been examined in low- and middle-income countries undergoing rapid urbanization. Building on a study of mental health in adults with a pre-existing chronic condition, we examined the association between park availability and major depression among 1208 adults surveyed in Delhi, India. Major depression was measured using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. The ArcGIS platform was used to quantify park availability indexed as (i) park distance from households, (ii) area of the nearest park; and within one km buffer area around households - the (iii) number and (iv) total area of all parks. Mixed-effects logistic regression models adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics indicated that relative to residents exposed to the largest nearest park areas (tertile 3), the odds [95% confidence interval] of major depression was 3.1 [1.4-7.0] times higher among residents exposed to the smallest nearest park areas (tertile 1) and 2.1 [0.9-4.8] times higher in residents with mid-level exposure (tertile 2). There was no statistically significant association between other park variables tested and major depression. We hypothesized that physical activity in the form of walking, perceived stress levels and satisfaction with the neighborhood environment may have mediating effects on the association between nearest park area and major depression. We found no significant mediation effects for any of our hypothesized variables. In conclusion, our results provide preliminary and novel evidence from India that availability of large parks in the immediate neighborhood positively impacts mental well-being of individuals with pre-existing chronic conditions, at the opportune time when India is embarking on the development of sustainable cities that aim to promote health through smart urban design - one of the key elements of which is the inclusion of urban green spaces

Association between poor oral health and diabetes among Indian adult population: potential for integration with NCDs.

BACKGROUND: Studies in high-income countries have reported associations between oral health and diabetes. There is however a lack of evidence on this association from low and middle-income countries, especially India. The current study aimed to assess the prevalence of common oral diseases and their association with diabetes. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was nested within the second Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia Surveillance Study. A subset of study participants residing in Delhi were administered the World Health Organization's Oral Health Assessment Questionnaire and underwent oral examination for caries experience and periodontal health assessment using standard indices. Diabetes status was ascertained by fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin values or self-reported medication use. Information was captured on co-variates of interest. The association between oral health and diabetes was investigated using Multivariable Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression analysis. RESULTS: Out of 2045 participants, 47% were women and the mean age of study participants was 42.17 (12.8) years. The age-standardised prevalence (95% confidence interval) estimates were 78.9% (75.6-81.7) for dental caries, 35.9% (32.3-39.6) for periodontitis. Nearly 85% participants suffered from at least one oral disease. Compared to diabetes-free counterparts, participants with diabetes had more severe caries experience [Mean Count Ratio (MCR)?=?1.07 (1.03-1.12)] and attachment loss [MCR?=?1.10 (1.04-1.17)]. Also, the adjusted prevalence of periodontitis was significantly higher among participants with diabetes [42.3%(40.0-45.0)] compared to those without diabetes [31.3%(30.3-32.2)]. CONCLUSION: We found that eight out of ten participants in urban Delhi suffered from some form of oral disease and participants with diabetes had worse oral health. This highlights the need for public health strategies to integrate oral health within the existing Non-Communicable Disease control programs

Prevalence and incidence of hypertension: Results from a representative cohort of over 16,000 adults in three cities of south Asia

Background: Despite high projected burden, hypertension incidence data are lacking in South Asian population. We measured hypertension prevalence and incidence in the Center for cArdio-metabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) adult cohort.Methods: The CARRS Study recruited representative samples of Chennai, Delhi, and Karachi in 2010/11, and socio-demographic and risk factor data were obtained using a standard common protocol. Blood pressure (BP) was measured in the sitting position using electronic sphygmomanometer both at baseline and two year follow-up. Hypertension and control were defined by JNC 7 criteria.Results: In total, 16,287 participants were recruited (response rate=94.3%) and two year follow-up was completed in 12,504 (follow-up rate=79.2%). Hypertension was present in 30.1% men (95% CI: 28.7-31.5) and 26.8% women (25.7-27.9) at baseline. BP was controlled in 1 in 7 subjects with hypertension. At two years, among non-hypertensive adults, average systolic BP increased 2.6mm Hg (95% CI: 2.1-3.1), diastolic BP 0.7mm Hg (95% CI: 0.4-1.0), and 1 in 6 developed hypertension (82.6 per 1000 person years, 95% CI: 80.8-84.4). Risk for developing hypertension was associated with age, low socio-economic status, current alcohol use, overweight, pre-hypertension, and dysglycemia. Risk of incident hypertension was highest (RR=2.95, 95% CI: 2.53-3.45) in individuals with pre-hypertension compared to normal BP. Collectively, 4 modifiable risk factors (pre-hypertension, overweight, dysglycemia, and alcohol use) accounted for 78% of the population attributable risk of incident hypertension.Conclusion: High prevalence and poor control of hypertension, along with high incidence, in South Asian adult population call for urgent preventive measures

Cardiovascular risk prediction in India: Comparison of the original and recalibrated Framingham prognostic models in urban populations.

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death in India. The CVD risk approach is a cost-effective way to identify those at high risk, especially in a low resource setting. As there is no validated prognostic model for an Indian urban population, we have re-calibrated the original Framingham model using data from two urban Indian studies. Methods: We have estimated three risk score equations using three different models. The first model was based on Framingham original model; the second and third are the recalibrated models using risk factor prevalence from CARRS (Centre for cArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South-Asia) and ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) studies, and estimated survival from WHO 2012 data for India. We applied these three risk scores to the CARRS and ICMR participants and estimated the proportion of those at high-risk (&gt;30% 10 years CVD risk) who would be eligible to receive preventive treatment such as statins. Results: In the CARRS study, the proportion of men with 10 years CVD risk &gt; 30% (and therefore eligible for statin treatment) was 13.3%, 21%, and 13.6% using Framingham, CARRS and ICMR risk models, respectively. The corresponding proportions of women were 3.5%, 16.4%, and 11.6%. In the ICMR study the corresponding proportions of men were 16.3%, 24.2%, and 16.5% and for women, these were 5.6%, 20.5%, and 15.3%. Conclusion: Although the recalibrated model based on local population can improve the validity of CVD risk scores our study exemplifies the variation between recalibrated models using different data from the same country. Considering the growing burden of cardiovascular diseases in India, and the impact that the risk approach has on influencing cardiovascular prevention treatment, such as statins, it is essential to develop high quality and well powered local cohorts (with outcome data) to develop local prognostic models.</ns4:p

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease and risk factors for its progression: A cross-sectional comparison of Indians living in Indian versus U.S. cities.

BACKGROUND: While data from the latter part of the twentieth century consistently showed that immigrants to high-income countries faced higher cardio-metabolic risk than their counterparts in low- and middle-income countries, urbanization and associated lifestyle changes may be changing these patterns, even for conditions considered to be advanced manifestations of cardio-metabolic disease (e.g., chronic kidney disease [CKD]). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using cross-sectional data from the Center for cArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS, n = 5294) and Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA, n = 748) studies, we investigated whether prevalence of CKD is similar among Indians living in Indian and U.S. cities. We compared crude, age-, waist-to-height ratio-, and diabetes- adjusted CKD prevalence difference. Among participants identified to have CKD, we compared management of risk factors for its progression. Overall age-adjusted prevalence of CKD was similar in MASALA (14.0% [95% CI 11.8-16.3]) compared with CARRS (10.8% [95% CI 10.0-11.6]). Among men the prevalence difference was low (prevalence difference 1.8 [95% CI -1.6,5.3]) and remained low after adjustment for age, waist-to-height ratio, and diabetes status (-0.4 [-3.2,2.5]). Adjusted prevalence difference was higher among women (prevalence difference 8.9 [4.8,12.9]), but driven entirely by a higher prevalence of albuminuria among women in MASALA. Severity of CKD--i.e., degree of albuminuria and proportion of participants with reduced glomerular filtration fraction--was higher in CARRS for both men and women. Fewer participants with CKD in CARRS were effectively treated. 4% of CARRS versus 51% of MASALA participants with CKD had A1c < 7%; and 7% of CARRS versus 59% of MASALA participants blood pressure < 140/90 mmHg. Our analysis applies only to urban populations. Demographic--particularly educational attainment--differences among participants in the two studies are a potential source of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of CKD among Indians living in Indian and U.S. cities is similar. Persons with CKD living in Indian cities face higher likelihood of experiencing end-stage renal disease since they have more severe kidney disease and little evidence of risk factor management

Rationale and protocol for estimating the economic value of a multicomponent quality improvement strategy for diabetes care in South Asia.

BACKGROUND: Economic dimensions of implementing quality improvement for diabetes care are understudied worldwide. We describe the economic evaluation protocol within a randomised controlled trial that tested a multi-component quality improvement (QI) strategy for individuals with poorly-controlled type 2 diabetes in South Asia. METHODS/DESIGN: This economic evaluation of the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) randomised trial involved 1146 people with poorly-controlled type 2 diabetes receiving care at 10 diverse diabetes clinics across India and Pakistan. The economic evaluation comprises both a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (mean 2.5 years follow up) and a microsimulation model-based cost-utility analysis (life-time horizon). Effectiveness measures include multiple risk factor control (achieving HbA1c < 7% and blood pressure < 130/80 mmHg and/or LDL-cholesterol< 100 mg/dl), and patient reported outcomes including quality adjusted life years (QALYs) measured by EQ-5D-3 L, hospitalizations, and diabetes related complications at the trial end. Cost measures include direct medical and non-medical costs relevant to outpatient care (consultation fee, medicines, laboratory tests, supplies, food, and escort/accompanying person costs, transport) and inpatient care (hospitalization, transport, and accompanying person costs) of the intervention compared to usual diabetes care. Patient, healthcare system, and societal perspectives will be applied for costing. Both cost and health effects will be discounted at 3% per year for within trial cost-effectiveness analysis over 2.5 years and decision modelling analysis over a lifetime horizon. Outcomes will be reported as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) to achieve multiple risk factor control, avoid diabetes-related complications, or QALYs gained against varying levels of willingness to pay threshold values. Sensitivity analyses will be performed to assess uncertainties around ICER estimates by varying costs (95% CIs) across public vs. private settings and using conservative estimates of effect size (95% CIs) for multiple risk factor control. Costs will be reported in US$ 2018. DISCUSSION: We hypothesize that the additional upfront costs of delivering the intervention will be counterbalanced by improvements in clinical outcomes and patient-reported outcomes, thereby rendering this multi-component QI intervention cost-effective in resource constrained South Asian settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01212328

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress