Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

Background Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi’s Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children’s clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed eff ects logistic regression models. Findings Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92∧7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4–6·7). The case fatality rate signifi cantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4–17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1–4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors signifi cantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). Interpretation Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specifi c subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of suffi cient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of eff ective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi

Quality improvement and emerging global health priorities

Quality improvement approaches can strengthen action on a range of global health priorities. Quality improvement efforts are uniquely placed to reorient care delivery systems towards integrated people-centred health services and strengthen health systems to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This article makes the case for addressing shortfalls of previous agendas by articulating the critical role of quality improvement in the Sustainable Development Goal era. Quality improvement can stimulate convergence between health security and health systems; address global health security priorities through participatory quality improvement approaches; and improve health outcomes at all levels of the health system. Entry points for action include the linkage with antimicrobial resistance and the contentious issue of the health of migrants. The work required includes focussed attention on the continuum of national quality policy formulation, implementation and learning; alongside strengthening the measurement-improvement linkage. Quality improvement plays a key role in strengthening health systems to achieve UHC.Fil: Abrampah, Nana Mensah. Organizacion Mundial de la Salud; ArgentinaFil: Syed, Shamsuzzoha Babar. Organizacion Mundial de la Salud; ArgentinaFil: Hirschhorn, Lisa R.. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Nambiar, Bejoy. Malawi University of Science and Technology; Malaui. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Iqbal, Usman. Taipei Medical University.; República de ChinaFil: Garcia Elorrio, Ezequiel. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Chattu, Vijay Kumar. University of the West Indies; Trinidad y TobagoFil: Devnani, Mahesh. Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research; IndiaFil: Kelley, Edward. Organizacion Mundial de la Salud; Argentin

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001-12: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. METHODS: Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi's Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children's clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2-11 months of age, and 12-59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92·7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4-6·7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4-17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1-4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2-11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Practical recommendations for the evaluation of improvement initiatives

Abstract A lack of clear guidance for funders, evaluators and improvers on what to include in evaluation proposals can lead to evaluation designs that do not answer the questions stakeholders want to know. These evaluation designs may not match the iterative nature of improvement and may be imposed onto an initiative in a way that is impractical from the perspective of improvers and the communities with whom they work. Consequently, the results of evaluations are often controversial, and attribution remains poorly understood. Improvement initiatives are iterative, adaptive and context-specific. Evaluation approaches and designs must align with these features, specifically in their ability to consider complexity, to evolve as the initiative adapts over time and to understand the interaction with local context. Improvement initiatives often identify broadly defined change concepts and provide tools for care teams to tailor these in more detail to local conditions. Correspondingly, recommendations for evaluation are best provided as broad guidance, to be tailored to the specifics of the initiative. In this paper, we provide practical guidance and recommendations that funders and evaluators can use when developing an evaluation plan for improvement initiatives that seeks to: identify the questions stakeholders want to address; develop the initial program theory of the initiative; identify high-priority areas to measure progress over time; describe the context the initiative will be applied within; and identify experimental or observational designs that will address attribution

Practical recommendations for the evaluation of improvement initiatives

Abstract A lack of clear guidance for funders, evaluators and improvers on what to include in evaluation proposals can lead to evaluation designs that do not answer the questions stakeholders want to know. These evaluation designs may not match the iterative nature of improvement and may be imposed onto an initiative in a way that is impractical from the perspective of improvers and the communities with whom they work. Consequently, the results of evaluations are often controversial, and attribution remains poorly understood. Improvement initiatives are iterative, adaptive and context-specific. Evaluation approaches and designs must align with these features, specifically in their ability to consider complexity, to evolve as the initiative adapts over time and to understand the interaction with local context. Improvement initiatives often identify broadly defined change concepts and provide tools for care teams to tailor these in more detail to local conditions. Correspondingly, recommendations for evaluation are best provided as broad guidance, to be tailored to the specifics of the initiative. In this paper, we provide practical guidance and recommendations that funders and evaluators can use when developing an evaluation plan for improvement initiatives that seeks to: identify the questions stakeholders want to address; develop the initial program theory of the initiative; identify high-priority areas to measure progress over time; describe the context the initiative will be applied within; and identify experimental or observational designs that will address attribution

A framework for learning about improvement: embedded implementation and evaluation design to optimize learning

Abstract Improving health care involves many actors, often working in complex adaptive systems. Interventions tend to be multi-factorial, implementation activities diverse, and contexts dynamic and complicated. This makes improvement initiatives challenging to describe and evaluate as matching evaluation and program designs can be difficult, requiring collaboration, trust and transparency. Collaboration is required to address important epidemiological principles of bias and confounding. If this does not take place, results may lack credibility because the association between interventions implemented and outcomes achieved is obscure and attribution uncertain. Moreover, lack of clarity about what was implemented, how it was implemented, and the context in which it was implemented often lead to disappointment or outright failure of spread and scale-up efforts. The input of skilled evaluators into the design and conduct of improvement initiatives can be helpful in mitigating these potential problems. While evaluation must be rigorous, if it is too rigid necessary adaptation and learning may be compromised. This article provides a framework and guidance on how improvers and evaluators can work together to design, implement and learn about improvement interventions more effectively

Effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action on preventive and care-seeking behaviours to reduce neonatal mortality: A meta-analysis of cluster-randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends participatory learning and action (PLA) in women's groups to improve maternal and newborn health, particularly in rural settings with low access to health services. There have been calls to understand the pathways through which this community intervention may affect neonatal mortality. We examined the effect of women's groups on key antenatal, delivery, and postnatal behaviours in order to understand pathways to mortality reduction. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a meta-analysis using data from 7 cluster-randomised controlled trials that took place between 2001 and 2012 in rural India (2 trials), urban India (1 trial), rural Bangladesh (2 trials), rural Nepal (1 trial), and rural Malawi (1 trial), with the number of participants ranging between 6,125 and 29,901 live births. Behavioural outcomes included appropriate antenatal care, facility delivery, use of a safe delivery kit, hand washing by the birth attendant prior to delivery, use of a sterilised instrument to cut the umbilical cord, immediate wrapping of the newborn after delivery, delayed bathing of the newborn, early initiation of breastfeeding, and exclusive breastfeeding. We used 2-stage meta-analysis techniques to estimate the effect of the women's group intervention on behavioural outcomes. In the first stage, we used random effects models with individual patient data to assess the effect of groups on outcomes separately for the different trials. In the second stage of the meta-analysis, random effects models were applied using summary-level estimates calculated in the first stage of the analysis. To determine whether behaviour change was related to group attendance, we used random effects models to assess associations between outcomes and the following categories of group attendance and allocation: women attending a group and allocated to the intervention arm; women not attending a group but allocated to the intervention arm; and women allocated to the control arm. Overall, women's groups practising PLA improved behaviours during and after home deliveries, including the use of safe delivery kits (odds ratio [OR] 2.92, 95% CI 2.02-4.22; I2 = 63.7%, 95% CI 4.4%-86.2%), use of a sterile blade to cut the umbilical cord (1.88, 1.25-2.82; 67.6%, 16.1%-87.5%), birth attendant washing hands prior to delivery (1.87, 1.19-2.95; 79%, 53.8%-90.4%), delayed bathing of the newborn for at least 24 hours (1.47, 1.09-1.99; 68.0%, 29.2%-85.6%), and wrapping the newborn within 10 minutes of delivery (1.27, 1.02-1.60; 0.0%, 0%-79.2%). Effects were partly dependent on the proportion of pregnant women attending groups. We did not find evidence of effects on uptake of antenatal care (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77-1.38; I2 = 86.3%, 95% CI 73.8%-92.8%), facility delivery (1.02, 0.93-1.12; 21.4%, 0%-65.8%), initiating breastfeeding within 1 hour (1.08, 0.85-1.39; 76.6%, 50.9%-88.8%), or exclusive breastfeeding for 6 weeks after delivery (1.18, 0.93-1.48; 72.9%, 37.8%-88.2%). The main limitation of our analysis is the high degree of heterogeneity for effects on most behaviours, possibly due to the limited number of trials involving women's groups and context-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that women's groups practising PLA improve key behaviours on the pathway to neonatal mortality, with the strongest evidence for home care behaviours and practices during home deliveries. A lack of consistency in improved behaviours across all trials may reflect differences in local priorities, capabilities, and the responsiveness of health services. Future research could address the mechanisms behind how PLA improves survival, in order to adapt this method to improve maternal and newborn health in different contexts, as well as improve other outcomes across the continuum of care for women, children, and adolescents

An assessment of PCV13 vaccine coverage using a repeated cross-sectional household survey in Malawi [version 1; referees: 3 approved]

Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced in Malawi from November 2011 using a three dose primary series at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age to reduce Streptococcus pneumoniae-related diseases. To date, PCV13 paediatric coverage in Malawi has not been rigorously assessed.  We used household surveys to longitudinally track paediatric PCV13 coverage in rural Malawi. Methods: Samples of 60 randomly selected children (30 infants aged 6 weeks to 4 months and 30 aged 4-16 months) were sought in each of 20 village clinic catchment ‘basins’ of Kabudula health area, Lilongwe, Malawi between March 2012 and June 2014. Child health information was reviewed and mothers interviewed to determine each child’s PCV13 dose status and vaccine timing. The survey was completed six times in 4-8 month intervals. Survey inference was used to assess PCV13 dose coverage in each basin for each age group. All 20 basins were pooled to assess area-wide vaccination coverage over time, by age in months, and adherence to the vaccination schedule. Results: We surveyed a total of 8,562 children in six surveys; 82% were in the older age group. Overall, in age-eligible children, two-dose and three-dose coverage increased from 30% to 85% and 10% to 86%, respectively, between March 2012 and June 2014.  PCV13 coverage was higher in the older age group in all surveys. Although it varied by basin, PCV13 coverage was consistently delayed: median ages at first, second and third doses were 9, 15 and 21 weeks, respectively. Conclusion: In our rural study area, PCV13 introduction did not meet the Malawi Ministry of Health one-year three-dose 90% coverage target, but after 2 years reached levels likely to reduce the prevalence of both invasive and non-invasive paediatric pneumococcal diseases. Better adherence to the PCV13 schedule may reduce pneumococcal disease in younger Malawian children

Opportunities to improve postpartum care for mothers and infants: design of context-specific packages of postpartum interventions in rural districts in four sub-Saharan African countries

Background: Postpartum maternal and infant mortality is high in sub-Saharan Africa and improving postpartum care as a strategy to enhance maternal and infant health has been neglected. We describe the design and selection of suitable, context-specific interventions that have the potential to improve postpartum care. Methods: The study is implemented in rural districts in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Malawi and Mozambique. We used the four steps ‘systems thinking’ approach to design and select interventions: 1) we conducted a stakeholder analysis to identify and convene stakeholders; 2) we organised stakeholders causal analysis workshops in which the local postpartum situation and challenges and possible interventions were discussed; 3) based on comprehensive needs assessment findings, inputs from the stakeholders and existing knowledge regarding good postpartum care, a list of potential interventions was designed, and; 4) the stakeholders selected and agreed upon final context-specific intervention packages to be implemented to improve postpartum care. Results: Needs assessment findings showed that in all study countries maternal, newborn and child health is a national priority but specific policies for postpartum care are weak and there is very little evidence of effective postpartum care implementation. In the study districts few women received postpartum care during the first week after childbirth (25 % in Burkina Faso, 33 % in Kenya, 41 % in Malawi, 40 % in Mozambique). Based on these findings the interventions selected by stakeholders mainly focused on increasing the availability and provision of postpartum services and improving the quality of postpartum care through strengthening postpartum services and care at facility and community level. This includes the introduction of postpartum home visits, strengthening postpartum outreach services, integration of postpartum services for the mother in child immunisation clinics, distribution of postpartum care guidelines among health workers and upgrading postpartum care knowledge and skills through training. Conclusion: There are extensive gaps in availability and provision of postpartum care for mothers and infants. Acknowledging these gaps and involving relevant stakeholders are important to design and select sustainable, context-specific packages of interventions to improve postpartum care

Cause-specific neonatal mortality: analysis of 3772 neonatal deaths in Nepal, Bangladesh, Malawi and India.

OBJECTIVE: Understanding the causes of death is key to tackling the burden of three million annual neonatal deaths. Resource-poor settings lack effective vital registration systems for births, deaths and causes of death. We set out to describe cause-specific neonatal mortality in rural areas of Malawi, Bangladesh, Nepal and rural and urban India using verbal autopsy (VA) data. DESIGN: We prospectively recorded births, neonatal deaths and stillbirths in seven population surveillance sites. VAs were carried out to ascertain cause of death. We applied descriptive epidemiological techniques and the InterVA method to characterise the burden, timing and causes of neonatal mortality at each site. RESULTS: Analysis included 3772 neonatal deaths and 3256 stillbirths. Between 63% and 82% of neonatal deaths occurred in the first week of life, and males were more likely to die than females. Prematurity, birth asphyxia and infections accounted for most neonatal deaths, but important subnational and regional differences were observed. More than one-third of deaths in urban India were attributed to asphyxia, making it the leading cause of death in this setting. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based VA methods can fill information gaps on the burden and causes of neonatal mortality in resource-poor and data-poor settings. Local data should be used to inform and monitor the implementation of interventions to improve newborn health. High rates of home births demand a particular focus on community interventions to improve hygienic delivery and essential newborn care