Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalisation rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause, and by patient features. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 31, 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for hospitalisation and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socioeconomic status and 18 major comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 72 412 participants, mean (SD) age was 75.6 (12.4) years and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). By 2016/17 deaths from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, p < 0.001). Overall hospitalisation rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates. CONCLUSIONS: After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalisation has declined, whilst hospitalisation for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased

Prognosis, characteristics, and provision of care for patients with the unspecified heart failure electronic health record phenotype: a population-based linked cohort study of 95262 individuals

Background: Whether the accuracy of the phenotype ascribed to patients in electronic health records (EHRs) is associated with variation in prognosis and care provision is unknown. We investigated this for heart failure (HF, characterised as HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF], HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and unspecified HF). / Methods: We included individuals aged 16 years and older with a new diagnosis of HF between January 2, 1998 and February 28, 2022 from linked primary and secondary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England. We investigated the provision of guideline-recommended diagnostic investigations and pharmacological treatments. The primary outcome was a composite of HF hospitalisation or all-cause death, and secondary outcomes were time to HF hospitalisation, all-cause death and death from cardiovascular causes. We used Kaplan–Meier curves and log rank tests to compare survival across HF phenotypes and adjusted for potential confounders in Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. / Findings: Of a cohort of 95,262 individuals, 1271 (1.3%) were recorded as having HFpEF, 10,793 (11.3%) as HFrEF and 83,198 (87.3%) as unspecified HF. Individuals recorded as unspecified HF were older with a higher prevalence of dementia. Unspecified HF, compared to patients with a recorded HF phenotype, were less likely to receive specialist assessment, echocardiography or natriuretic peptide testing in the peri-diagnostic period, or receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta blockers or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists up to 12 months after diagnosis (risk ratios compared to HFrEF, 0.64, 95% CI 0.63–0.64; 0.59, 0.58–0.60; 0.57, 0.55–0.59; respectively) and had significantly worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratios compared to HFrEF, HF hospitalisation and death 1.66, 95% CI 1.59–1.74; all-cause mortality 2.00, 1.90–2.10; cardiovascular death 1.77, 1.65–1.90). / Interpretation: Our findings suggested that absence of specification of HF phenotype in routine EHRs is inversely associated with clinical investigations, treatments and survival, representing an actionable target to mitigate prognostic and health resource burden. / Funding: Japan Research Foundation for Healthy Aging andBritish Heart Foundation

Risks and benefits of oral anticoagulants for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation according to body mass index: Nationwide cohort study of primary care records in England.

Background: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are effective and safe alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether this extends to patients at the extremes of body mass index (BMI) is unclear. Methods: Using linked primary and secondary data, Jan 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2018, we included CHA2DS2-VASC score ≥3 in women and ≥2 in men with AF treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major bleeding and all-cause mortality by World Health Organisation BMI classification. Patients who received warfarin were propensity score matched (1:1 ratio) with those who received DOACs and the association of time-varying OAC exposure on outcomes quantified using Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: We included 29,135 (22,818 warfarin, 6317 DOAC); 585 (2.0%) underweight, 8427 (28.9%) normal weight, 10,705 (36.7%) overweight, 5910 (20.3%) class I obesity and 3508 (12.0%) class II/III obesity. Patients treated with DOACs were older and more comorbid. After 3.7 (SD 2.5) years follow up, there was no difference in risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding by BMI category between DOACs and warfarin. Normal weight, overweight and obese class I patients had higher risk of all-cause mortality when treated with DOACs compared with warfarin (HR: 1.45 [95% CI 1.24-1.69], p < 0.001; 1.41 [95% CI 1.19-1.66], p < 0.001; and 1.90 [95% CI 1.50-2.39], p < 0.001), an effect not observed after DOACs became the most common OAC prescription. Amongst underweight patients OAC exposure was associated with greater harm from bleeding than benefit from stroke prevention (benefit to harm ratio, 0.35 [95% CI 0.26-0.44]). Interpretation: In patients with AF in each BMI classification we found no difference in ischaemic stroke and bleeding risk for DOACs compared with warfarin. Underweight patients experienced divergent risk-benefit patterns from oral anticoagulation compared with other BMI categories. Funding: None

Prediction of short-term atrial fibrillation risk using primary care electronic health records

Objective Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening by age achieves a low yield and misses younger individuals. We aimed to develop an algorithm in nationwide routinely collected primary care data to predict the risk of incident AF within 6 months (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)). Methods We used primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between 2 January 1998 and 30 November 2018, randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We trained a random forest classifier using age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities. Prediction performance was evaluated in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex category) and C2HEST (Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) scores. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk of death were fit for incident longer-term AF between higher and lower FIND-AF-predicted risk. Results Of 2 081 139 individuals in the cohort, 7386 developed AF within 6 months. FIND-AF could be applied to all records. In the testing dataset (n=416 228), discrimination performance was strongest for FIND-AF (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.834) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.784, 0.773 to 0.794) and C2HEST (0.757, 0.744 to 0.770), and robust by sex and ethnic group. The higher predicted risk cohort, compared with lower predicted risk, had a 20-fold higher 6-month incidence rate for AF and higher long-term hazard for AF (HR 8.75, 95% CI 8.44 to 9.06). Conclusions FIND-AF, a machine learning algorithm applicable at scale in routinely collected primary care data, identifies people at higher risk of short-term AF

Comparison of care and outcomes for myocardial infarction by heart failure status between United Kingdom and Japan

Aims: Prognosis for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is worse when heart failure is present on admission. Understanding clinical practice in different health systems can identify areas for quality improvement initiatives to improve outcomes. In the absence of international comparison studies, we aimed to compare treatments and in-hospital outcomes of patients admitted with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by heart failure status in two healthcare-wide cohorts. Methods and results: We used two nationwide databases to capture admissions with STEMI in the United Kingdom (Myocardial ischemia National Audit Project, MINAP) and Japan (Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases-Diagnostic Procedure Combination, JROAD-DPC) between 2012 and 2017. Participants were stratified using the HF Killip classification into three groups; Killip 1: no congestive heart failure, Killip 2–3: congestive heart failure, Killip 4: cardiogenic shock. We calculated crude rate and case mix standardized risk ratios (CSRR) for use of treatments and in-hospital death. Patients were younger in the United Kingdom (65.4 [13.6] vs. 69.1 [13.0] years) and more likely to have co-morbidities in the United Kingdom except for diabetes and hypertension. Japan had a higher percentage of heart failure and cardiogenic shock patients among STEMI during admission than that in the United Kingdom. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) rates were lower in the United Kingdom compared with Japan, especially for patients presenting with Killip 2–3 class heart failure (pPCI use in patients with Killip 1, 2–3, 4: Japan, 86.2%, 81.7%, 78.7%; United Kingdom, 79.6%, 58.2% and 79.9%). In contrast, beta-blocker use was consistently lower in Japan than in the United Kingdom (61.4% vs. 90.2%) across Killip classifications and length of hospital stay longer (17.0 [9.7] vs. 5.0 [7.4] days). The crude rate of in-hospital mortality increased with increasing Killip class group. Both the crude rate and CSRR was higher in the United Kingdom compared with Japan for Killip 2–3 (15.8% vs. 6.4%, CSRR 1.80 95% CI 1.73–1.87, P < 0.001), and similar for Killip 4 (36.9% vs. 36.3%, CSRR 1.11 95% CI 1.08–1.13, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Important differences in the care and outcomes for STEMI with heart failure exist between the United Kingdom and Japan. Specifically, in the United Kingdom, there was a lower rate of pPCI, and in Japan, fewer patients were prescribed beta blockers and hospital length of stay was longer. This international comparison can inform targeted quality improvement programmes to narrow the outcome gap between health systems

Non-equilibrium Condensation Process in a Holographic Superconductor

We study the non-equilibrium condensation process in a holographic superconductor. When the temperature T is smaller than a critical temperature T_c, there are two black hole solutions, the Reissner-Nordstrom-AdS black hole and a black hole with a scalar hair. In the boundary theory, they can be regarded as the supercooled normal phase and the superconducting phase, respectively. We consider perturbations on supercooled Reissner-Nordstrom-AdS black holes and study their non-linear time evolution to know about physical phenomena associated with rapidly-cooled superconductors. We find that, for T<T_c, the initial perturbations grow exponentially and, eventually, spacetimes approach the hairy black holes. We also clarify how the relaxation process from a far-from-equilibrium state proceeds in the boundary theory by observing the time dependence of the superconducting order parameter. Finally, we study the time evolution of event and apparent horizons and discuss their correspondence with the entropy of the boundary theory. Our result gives a first step toward the holographic understanding of the non-equilibrium process in superconductors.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Photoperiod Regulates Corticosterone Rhythms by Altered Adrenal Sensitivity via Melatonin-Independent Mechanisms in Fischer 344 Rats and C57BL/6J Mice

Most species living in temperate zones adapt their physiology and behavior to seasonal changes in the environment by using the photoperiod as a primary cue. The mechanisms underlying photoperiodic regulation of stress-related functions are not well understood. In this study, we analyzed the effects of photoperiod on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis in photoperiod-sensitive Fischer 344 rats. We first examined how photoperiod affects diurnal variations in plasma concentrations of adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and corticosterone. ACTH levels did not exhibit diurnal variations under long- and short-day conditions. On the other hand, corticosterone levels exhibited a clear rhythm under short-day condition with a peak during dark phase. This peak was not observed under long-day condition in which a significant rhythm was not detected. To analyze the mechanisms responsible for the photoperiodic regulation of corticosterone rhythms, ACTH was intraperitoneally injected at the onset of the light or dark phase in dexamethasone-treated rats maintained under long- and short-day conditions. ACTH induced higher corticosterone levels in rats examined at dark onset under short-day condition than those maintained under long-day condition. Next, we asked whether melatonin signals are involved in photoperiodic regulation of corticosterone rhythms, and rats were intraperitoneally injected with melatonin at late afternoon under long-day condition for 3 weeks. However, melatonin injections did not affect the corticosterone rhythms. In addition, photoperiodic changes in the amplitude of corticosterone rhythms were also observed in melatonin-deficient C57BL/6J mice, in which expression profiles of several clock genes and steroidgenesis genes in adrenal gland were modified by the photoperiod. Our data suggest that photoperiod regulates corticosterone rhythms by altered adrenal sensitivity through melatonin-independent mechanisms that may involve the adrenal clock

Molecular basis for sensitivity and acquired resistance to gefitinib in HER2-overexpressing human gastric cancer cell lines derived from liver metastasis

Gastric cancer metastasised to the liver was found to overexpress HER2 at a significantly higher incidence than primary gastric cancers. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the possibility of molecular therapy targeting HER2 overexpression in gastric cancer liver metastasis. We developed three new HER2-overexpressing gastric cancer cell lines (GLM-1, GLM-2, GLM-4) without epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations derived from such liver metastasis, two of which had HER2 gene amplifications. All these GLM series of cell lines were highly sensitive to gefitinib in vitro, a specific inhibitor of EGFR tyrosine kinase (Iressa) rather than anti-HER2 antibody trastuzumab (Herceptin), whereas most of the HER2 low-expressing counterparts were not. In these HER2-overexpressing GLM series, protein kinase B (Akt), but not extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2), was constitutively phosphorylated, and gefitinib efficiently inhibited this Akt phosphorylation, induced strong apoptosis in vitro and exhibited antitumour activity in tumour xenografts in nude mice. This gefitinib-mediated antitumour effect in xenograft was significantly potentiated by trastuzumab treatment. On the other hand, gefitinib-resistant cells (GLM-1R) exhibited increased EGFR expression, followed by constitutive activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway. These results suggest that the antitumour effect of gefitinib is due to the effective inhibition of HER2-driven constitutive activation of phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt pathway, and that the acquired resistance to gefitinib is due to the constitutive activation of Ras/MAPK pathway in compensation for PI3K/Akt pathway. Gastric cancer liver metastasis with HER2 overexpression would be a potential molecular target for gefitinib and trastuzumab

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes of renin-angiotensin system blockade in adult patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review with network meta-analyses

Medications aimed at inhibiting the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) have been used extensively for preventing cardiovascular and renal complications in patients with diabetes, but data that compare their clinical effectiveness are limited. We aimed to compare the effects of classes of RAS blockers on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in adults with diabetes

Sleep-disordered breathing-do we have to change gears in heart failure?

The majority of patients with heart failure have sleep-disordered breathing (SDB)-with central (rather than obstructive) sleep apnoea becoming the predominant form in those with more severe disease. Cyclical apnoeas and hypopnoeas are associated with sleep disturbance, hypoxaemia, haemodynamic changes, and sympathetic activation. Such patients have a worse prognosis than those without SDB. Mask-based therapies of positive airway pressure targeted at SDB can improve measures of sleep quality and partially normalise the sleep and respiratory physiology, but recent randomised trials of cardiovascular outcomes in central sleep apnoea have been neutral or suggested the possibility of harm, likely from increased sudden death. Further randomised outcome studies (with cardiovascular mortality and hospitalisation endpoints) are required to determine whether mask-based treatment for SDB is appropriate for patients with chronic systolic heart failure and obstructive sleep apnoea, for those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, and for those with decompensated heart failure. New therapies for sleep apnoea-such as implantable phrenic nerve stimulators-also require robust assessment. No longer can the surrogate endpoints of improvement in respiratory and sleep metrics be taken as adequate therapeutic outcome measures in patients with heart failure and sleep apnoea