Comparison of Predicted and Observed Dioxin Levels in Fish: Implications for Risk Assessment

After comparing sampled and modelled dioxin levels in the tissue of fish near pulp and paper mill discharges, the authors argue that, until an improved bioaccumulation model is incorporated into EPA\u27s Risk assessment process, determination of human health Risks associated with consuming dioxin-contaminated fish should be based on sampling

Computational algebraic methods in efficient estimation

A strong link between information geometry and algebraic statistics is made by investigating statistical manifolds which are algebraic varieties. In particular it it shown how first and second order efficient estimators can be constructed, such as bias corrected Maximum Likelihood and more general estimators, and for which the estimating equations are purely algebraic. In addition it is shown how Gr\"obner basis technology, which is at the heart of algebraic statistics, can be used to reduce the degrees of the terms in the estimating equations. This points the way to the feasible use, to find the estimators, of special methods for solving polynomial equations, such as homotopy continuation methods. Simple examples are given showing both equations and computations. *** The proof of Theorem 2 was corrected by the latest version. Some minor errors were also corrected.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Measuring Distance and Properties of the Milky Way's Central Supermassive Black Hole with Stellar Orbits

We report new precision measurements of the properties of our Galaxy's supermassive black hole. Based on astrometric (1995-2007) and radial velocity (2000-2007) measurements from the W. M. Keck 10-meter telescopes, a fully unconstrained Keplerian orbit for the short period star S0-2 provides values for Ro of 8.0+-0.6 kpc, M_bh of 4.1+-0.6x10^6 Mo, and the black hole's radial velocity, which is consistent with zero with 30 km/s uncertainty. If the black hole is assumed to be at rest with respect to the Galaxy, we can further constrain the fit and obtain Ro = 8.4+-0.4 kpc and M_bh = 4.5+-0.4x10^6 Mo. More complex models constrain the extended dark mass distribution to be less than 3-4x10^5 Mo within 0.01 pc, ~100x higher than predictions from stellar and stellar remnant models. For all models, we identify transient astrometric shifts from source confusion and the assumptions regarding the black hole's radial motion as previously unrecognized limitations on orbital accuracy and the usefulness of fainter stars. Future astrometric and RV observations will remedy these effects. Our estimates of Ro and the Galaxy's local rotation speed, which it is derived from combining Ro with the apparent proper motion of Sgr A*, (theta0 = 229+-18 km/s), are compatible with measurements made using other methods. The increased black hole mass found in this study, compared to that determined using projected mass estimators, implies a longer period for the innermost stable orbit, longer resonant relaxation timescales for stars in the vicinity of the black hole and a better agreement with the M_bh-sigma relation.Comment: ApJ, accepted (26 pages, 16 figures, 7 tables

Spectral graph clustering via the Expectation-Solution algorithm

The stochastic blockmodel (SBM) models the connectivity within and between disjoint subsets of nodes in networks. Prior work demonstrated that the rows of an SBM's adjacency spectral embedding (ASE) and Laplacian spectral embedding (LSE) both converge in law to Gaussian mixtures where the components are curved exponential families. Maximum likelihood estimation via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for a full Gaussian mixture model (GMM) can then perform the task of clustering graph nodes, albeit without appealing to the components' curvature. Noting that EM is a special case of the Expectation-Solution (ES) algorithm, we propose two ES algorithms that allow us to take full advantage of these curved structures. After presenting the ES algorithm for the general curved-Gaussian mixture, we develop those corresponding to the ASE and LSE limiting distributions. Simulating from artificial SBMs and a brain connectome SBM reveals that clustering graph nodes via our ES algorithms can improve upon that of EM for a full GMM for a wide range of settings.Comment: 45 pages, version accepted by Electronic Journal of Statistic

Is there an impact of public smoking bans on self-reported smoking status and exposure to secondhand smoke?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Implementation of smoke free policies has potentially substantial effects on health by reducing secondhand smoke exposure. However little is known about whether the introduction of anti-smoking legislation translates into decreased secondhand smoke exposure. We examined whether smoking bans impact rates of secondhand smoke exposure in public places and rates of complete workplace smoking restriction.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Canadian Community Health Survey was used to obtain secondhand smoking exposure rates in 15 Ontario municipalities. Data analysis included descriptive summaries and 95% confidence intervals were calculated and compared across groups</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across all studied municipalities, secondhand smoke exposure in public places decreased by 4.7% and workplace exposure decreased by 2.3% between the 2003 and 2005 survey years. The only jurisdiction to implement a full ban from no previous ban was also the only setting that experienced significant decreases in both individual exposure to secondhand smoke in a public place (-17.3%, 95% CI -22.8, -11.8) and workplace exposure (-18.1%, 95% CI -24.9, -11.3). Exposures in vehicles and homes declined in almost all settings over time.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Implementation of a full smoking ban was associated with the largest decreases in secondhand smoke exposure while partial bans and changes in existing bans had inconsistent effects. In addition to decreasing exposure in public places as would be expected from legislation, bans may have additional benefits by decreasing rates of current smokers and decreasing exposures to secondhand smoke in private settings.</p

Riparian vegetation restoration: Does social perception reflect ecological value?

Special Issue PaperSocial‐ecological contexts are key to the success of ecological restoration projects. The ecological quality of restoration efforts, however, may not be fully evident to stakeholders, particularly if the desired aesthetic experience is not delivered. Aesthetically pleasing landscapes are more highly appreciated and tend to be better protected than less appealing landscapes, regardless of their ecological value. Positive public perception of restoration actions may therefore facilitate stakeholder involvement and catalyse recognition of ecological improvement. Here we aim to contrast aesthetical perception and ecological condition in headwater river reaches restored through passive ecological restoration in study areas in Portugal (Alentejo) and France (Normandy). We recorded structural and functional indicators of riparian vegetation to monitor the ecological condition of study sites along a passive restoration trajectory. Aesthetical perception indicators were assessed through stakeholder inquiries developed under a semantic differential approach. We analysed perception responses to changes in the riparian ecosystems resulting from passive ecological restoration across different geographical contexts and social groups. The analysed social groups comprised stakeholders (environmental managers and landowners) and university students (landscape architecture and geography students). Results indicate that (a) visual preferences often do not reflect changes in ecological condition, (b) perception of the restoration process is strongly context dependent, and (c) experience and cultural background affect perception of ecological condition across the different social groups analysed. Clear identification of relevant stakeholder groups (those interested in or directly affected by restoration), effective communication, and stakeholder engagement are therefore essential for assuring the success of river restoration projectsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Designing and Piloting a Tool for the Measurement of the Use of Pronunciation Learning Strategies

What appears to be indispensable to drive the field forward and ensure that research findings will be comparable across studies and provide a sound basis for feasible pedagogic proposals is to draw up a classification of PLS and design on that basis a valid and reliable data collection tool which could be employed to measure the use of these strategies in different groups of learners, correlate it with individual and contextual variables, and appraise the effects of training programs. In accordance with this rationale, the present paper represents an attempt to propose a tentative categorization of pronunciation learning strategies, adopting as a point of reference the existing taxonomies of strategic devices (i.e. O'Malley and Chamot 1990; Oxford 1990) and the instructional options teachers have at their disposal when dealing with elements of this language subsystem (e.g. Kelly 2000; Goodwin 2001). It also introduces a research instrument designed on the basis of the classification that shares a number of characteristics with Oxford's (1990) Strategy Inventory for Language Learning but, in contrast to it, includes both Likert-scale and open-ended items. The findings of a pilot study which involved 80 English Department students demonstrate that although the tool requires considerable refinement, it provides a useful point of departure for future research into PLS