Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty)

International audienceThis paper explores the potential for assessing the impacts of climate change upon flood frequency for the gauged, upland Wye catchment at Plynlimon, Wales, UK, while taking account of uncertainty in modelling rainfall-runoff processes under current conditions. A continuous simulation methodology which uses a stochastic rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is utilised. Behavioural parameter sets for both the rainfall model and TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The "medium-high" UKCIP98 climate change scenario, obtained from the HadCM2 GCM simulations, is used as a starting point for a variety of different scenarios at the catchment scale. It is demonstrated that while the scenarios have only a small impact upon the likelihood weighted flood frequency uncertainty bounds in comparison with the current condition scenario, the risk of a given discharge as an element in the distribution of T year floods is changed. This underlines the need to account explicitly for uncertainty within hydrological modelling, especially in estimating the impacts of climate change. Keywords: Climate change; Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL</p

The changing trend in nitrate concentrations in major aquifers due to historical nitrate loading from agricultural land across England and Wales from 1925 to 2150

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses

The exsolution of Cu particles from doped barium cerate zirconate via barium cuprate intermediate phases

This research was supported by EPSRC research grants EP/R023522/1, EP/T019298/1, EP/R023751/1, EP/L017008/1 the China Scholarship Commission (MW) received financial support from the UK Catalysis Hub funded by EPSRC Grant reference EP/R027129/1.As a low-cost alternative to noble metals, Cu plays an important role in industrial catalysis, such as water-gas shift reaction, methanol or ethanol oxidation, hydrogenation of oils, CO oxidation, among many others. An important step in optimizing Cu catalyst performance is control of nanoparticles size, distribution, and the interface with the support. While proton conducting perovskites can enhance the metal catalytic activity when acting as the support, there has been limited investigation of in situ growth of Cu metal nanoparticles from the proton conductors and its catalytic performance. Here, Cu nanoparticles are tracked exsolved from an A-site-deficient proton-conducting barium cerate-zirconate using scanning electron microscopy, revealing a continuous phase change during exsolution as a function of reduction temperature. Combined with the phase diagram and cell parameter change during reduction, a new exsolution mechanism is proposed for the first time which provides insight into tailoring metal particles interfaces at proton conducting oxide surfaces. Furthermore, the catalytic behavior in the CO oxidation reaction is explored and, it is observed that these new nanostructures can rival state of the art catalysts over long term operation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Assessing the potential impacts of a revised set of on-farm nutrient and sediment ‘basic’ control measures for reducing agricultural diffuse pollution across England

The need for improved abatement of agricultural diffuse water pollution represents cause for concern throughout the world. A critical aspect in the design of on-farm intervention programmes concerns the potential technical cost-effectiveness of packages of control measures. The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) calls for Programmes of Measures (PoMs) to protect freshwater environments and these comprise ‘basic’ (mandatory) and ‘supplementary’ (incentivised) options. Recent work has used measure review, elicitation of stakeholder attitudes and a process-based modelling framework to identify a new alternative set of ‘basic’ agricultural sector control measures for nutrient and sediment abatement across England. Following an initial scientific review of 708 measures, 90 were identified for further consideration at an industry workshop and 63 had industry support. Optimisation modelling was undertaken to identify a shortlist of measures using the Demonstration Test Catchments as sentinel agricultural landscapes. Optimisation selected 12 measures relevant to livestock or arable systems. Model simulations of 95% implementation of these 12 candidate ‘basic’ measures, in addition to business-as-usual, suggested reductions in the national agricultural nitrate load of 2.5%, whilst corresponding reductions in phosphorus and sediment were 11.9% and 5.6%, respectively. The total cost of applying the candidate ‘basic’ measures across the whole of England was estimated to be £450 million per annum, which is equivalent to £52 per hectare of agricultural land. This work contributed to a public consultation in 2016

The pediatric glucocorticoid toxicity index

Objectives: To develop a Pediatric glucocorticoid toxicity index (pGTI), a standardized, weighted clinical outcome assessment that measures change in glucocorticoid (GC) toxicity over time. Methods: Fourteen physician experts from 7 subspecialties participated. The physician experts represented multiple subspecialties in which GCs play a major role in the treatment of inflammatory disease: nephrology, rheumatology, oncology, endocrinology, genetics, psychiatry, and maternal-fetal medicine. Nine investigators were from Canada, Europe, or New Zealand, and 5 were from the United States. Group consensus methods and multi-criteria decision analysis were used. The pGTI is an aggregate assessment of GC toxicities that are common, important, and dynamic. These toxicities are organized into health domains graded as minor, moderate, or major and are weighted according to severity. The relative weights were derived by group consensus and multi-criteria decision analysis using the 1000MindsTM software platform. Two quantitative scores comprise the overall toxicity profile derived from pGTI data: (1) the Cumulative Worsening Score; and (2) the Aggregate Improvement Score. The pGTI also includes a qualitative, unweighted record of GC side-effects known as the Damage Checklist, which documents less common toxicities that, although potentially severe, are unlikely to change with varying GC dosing. Results: One hundred and seven (107) toxicity items were included in the pGTI and thirty-two (32) in the Damage Checklist. To assess the degree to which the pGTI corresponds to expert clinical judgement, the investigators ranked 15 cases by clinical judgement from highest to lowest GC toxicity. Expert rankings were then compared to case ranking by the pGTI, yielding excellent agreement (weighted kappa 0.86). The pGTI was migrated to a digital environment following its development and initial validation. The digital platform is designed to ensure ease-of-use in the clinic, rigor in application, and accuracy of scoring. Clinic staff enter vital signs, laboratory results, and medication changes relevant to pGTI scoring. Clinicians record findings for GC myopathy, skin toxicity, mood dysfunction, and infection. The pGTI algorithms then apply the weights to these raw data and calculate scores. Embedded logic accounts for the impact of age- and sex-related reference ranges on several health domains: blood pressure, lipid metabolism, and bone mineral density. Other algorithms account for anticipated changes in the height Z-scores used in the growth domain, thereby addressing a concern unique to GC toxicity in children. The Damage Checklist ensures comprehensive measurement of GC toxicity but does not contribute to pGTI scoring, because the scored domains emphasize manifestations of GC toxicity that are likely to change over the course of a trial. Conclusions: We describe the development and initial evaluation of a weighted, composite toxicity index for the assessment of morbidity related to GC use in children and adolescents. Developing the pGTI digital platform was essential for performing the nuanced calculations necessary to ensure rigor, accuracy, and ease-of-use in both clinic and research settings

Interactions between fine-grained sediment delivery, river bed deposition and salmonid spawning success

Salmonids clean river bed gravels to lay their eggs. However, during the incubation period fine sediment infiltrates the bed. This has been found to limit the success of salmonid spawning, as fine sediment reduces gravel permeability resulting in intra-gravel flow velocities and O2 concentrations decreasing. The success of salmonid spawning is therefore a function of the coincidence of fine sediment delivery and the development of the salmonid eggs. The presence of fine sediment also exerts sub-lethal effects on the rate of egg development with a negative feedback slowing and extending the incubation process meaning the eggs are in the gravels for longer and susceptible to more potential sediment delivery events. The SIDO (Sediment Intrusion and Dissolved Oxygen)-UK model is a physically-based numerical model which simulates the effect of fine sediment deposition on the abiotic characteristics of the salmonid redd, along with the consequences for egg development and survival. This model is used to investigate the interactions and feedbacks between the timing and concentrations of suspended sediment delivery events, and the deposition of fine sediment within the gravel bed, and the consequences of this on the rate of egg development and survival. The model simulations suggest that egg survival is highly sensitive to suspended sediment concentrations, particularly to changes in the supply rate of sand particles. The magnitude, frequency and specific timing of sediment delivery events effects egg survival rates. The modelling framework is also used to investigate the impact of the rate of gravel infilling by sediment

Do agri-environment schemes result in improved water quality?

Welsh Government. Grant Number: 183/2007/0