Prediction theory for stationary functional time series

We survey aspects of prediction theory in infinitely many dimensions, with a view to the theory and applications of functional time series

Linear algebra and multivariate analysis in statistics: development and interconnections in the twentieth century

The most obvious points of contact between linear and matrix algebra and statistics are in the area of multivariate analysis. We review the way that, as both developed during the last century, the two influenced each other by examining a number of key areas. We begin with matrix and linear algebra, its emergence in the nineteenth century, and its eventual penetration into the undergraduate curriculum in the twentieth century. We continue with a similar account for multivariate analysis in statistics. We pick out the year 1936 for three key developments, and the early post-war period for three more. We then turn to some special results in linear algebra that we need. We briefly discuss four of the main contributors, and close with thirteen ‘case studies’, showing in a range of specific cases how these general algebraic methods have been put to good use and changed the face of statistics

Packing and Hausdorff measures of stable trees

In this paper we discuss Hausdorff and packing measures of random continuous trees called stable trees. Stable trees form a specific class of L\'evy trees (introduced by Le Gall and Le Jan in 1998) that contains Aldous's continuum random tree (1991) which corresponds to the Brownian case. We provide results for the whole stable trees and for their level sets that are the sets of points situated at a given distance from the root. We first show that there is no exact packing measure for levels sets. We also prove that non-Brownian stable trees and their level sets have no exact Hausdorff measure with regularly varying gauge function, which continues previous results from a joint work with J-F Le Gall (2006).Comment: 40 page

Global clustering coefficient in scale-free networks

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the global clustering coefficient in scale free graphs. We are especially interested in the case of degree distribution with an infinite variance, since such degree distribution is usually observed in real-world networks of diverse nature. There are two common definitions of the clustering coefficient of a graph: global clustering and average local clustering. It is widely believed that in real networks both clustering coefficients tend to some positive constant as the networks grow. There are several models for which the average local clustering coefficient tends to a positive constant. On the other hand, there are no models of scale-free networks with an infinite variance of degree distribution and with a constant global clustering. In this paper we prove that if the degree distribution obeys the power law with an infinite variance, then the global clustering coefficient tends to zero with high probability as the size of a graph grows

On the Price of Anarchy of Highly Congested Nonatomic Network Games

We consider nonatomic network games with one source and one destination. We examine the asymptotic behavior of the price of anarchy as the inflow increases. In accordance with some empirical observations, we show that, under suitable conditions, the price of anarchy is asymptotic to one. We show with some counterexamples that this is not always the case. The counterexamples occur in very simple parallel graphs.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figure

On small-noise equations with degenerate limiting system arising from volatility models

The one-dimensional SDE with non Lipschitz diffusion coefficient $dX_{t} = b(X_{t})dt + \sigma X_{t}^{\gamma} dB_{t}, \ X_{0}=x, \ \gamma<1$ is widely studied in mathematical finance. Several works have proposed asymptotic analysis of densities and implied volatilities in models involving instances of this equation, based on a careful implementation of saddle-point methods and (essentially) the explicit knowledge of Fourier transforms. Recent research on tail asymptotics for heat kernels [J-D. Deuschel, P.~Friz, A.~Jacquier, and S.~Violante. Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part II: Applications. 2013, arxiv:1305.6765] suggests to work with the rescaled variable $X^{\varepsilon}:=\varepsilon^{1/(1-\gamma)} X$: while allowing to turn a space asymptotic problem into a small-$\varepsilon$ problem with fixed terminal point, the process $X^{\varepsilon}$ satisfies a SDE in Wentzell--Freidlin form (i.e. with driving noise $\varepsilon dB$). We prove a pathwise large deviation principle for the process $X^{\varepsilon}$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$. As it will become clear, the limiting ODE governing the large deviations admits infinitely many solutions, a non-standard situation in the Wentzell--Freidlin theory. As for applications, the $\varepsilon$-scaling allows to derive exact log-asymptotics for path functionals of the process: while on the one hand the resulting formulae are confirmed by the CIR-CEV benchmarks, on the other hand the large deviation approach (i) applies to equations with a more general drift term and (ii) potentially opens the way to heat kernel analysis for higher-dimensional diffusions involving such an SDE as a component.Comment: 21 pages, 1 figur

Upper bounds for number of removed edges in the Erased Configuration Model

Models for generating simple graphs are important in the study of real-world complex networks. A well established example of such a model is the erased configuration model, where each node receives a number of half-edges that are connected to half-edges of other nodes at random, and then self-loops are removed and multiple edges are concatenated to make the graph simple. Although asymptotic results for many properties of this model, such as the limiting degree distribution, are known, the exact speed of convergence in terms of the graph sizes remains an open question. We provide a first answer by analyzing the size dependence of the average number of removed edges in the erased configuration model. By combining known upper bounds with a Tauberian Theorem we obtain upper bounds for the number of removed edges, in terms of the size of the graph. Remarkably, when the degree distribution follows a power-law, we observe three scaling regimes, depending on the power law exponent. Our results provide a strong theoretical basis for evaluating finite-size effects in networks

Inversions of Levy Measures and the Relation Between Long and Short Time Behavior of Levy Processes

The inversion of a Levy measure was first introduced (under a different name) in Sato 2007. We generalize the definition and give some properties. We then use inversions to derive a relationship between weak convergence of a Levy process to an infinite variance stable distribution when time approaches zero and weak convergence of a different Levy process as time approaches infinity. This allows us to get self contained conditions for a Levy process to converge to an infinite variance stable distribution as time approaches zero. We formulate our results both for general Levy processes and for the important class of tempered stable Levy processes. For this latter class, we give detailed results in terms of their Rosinski measures

Quantum Stochastic Processes and the Modelling of Quantum Noise

This brief article gives an overview of quantum mechanics as a {\em quantum probability theory}. It begins with a review of the basic operator-algebraic elements that connect probability theory with quantum probability theory. Then quantum stochastic processes is formulated as a generalization of stochastic processes within the framework of quantum probability theory. Quantum Markov models from quantum optics are used to explicitly illustrate the underlying abstract concepts and their connections to the quantum regression theorem from quantum optics.Comment: 14 pages, invited article for the second edition of Springer's Encyclopedia of Systems and Control (to appear). Comments welcom

A fluid model for a relay node in an ad-hoc network: the case of heavy-tailed input

Relay nodes in an ad hoc network can be modelled as fluid queues, in which the available service capacity is shared by the input and output. In this paper such a relay node is considered; jobs arrive according to a Poisson process and bring along a random amount of work. The total transmission capacity is fairly shared, meaning that, when n jobs are present, each job transmits traffic into the queue at rate 1/(n + 1) while the queue is drained at the same rate of 1/(n + 1). Where previous studies mainly concentrated on the case of exponentially distributed job sizes, the present paper addresses regularly varying jobs. The focus lies on the tail asymptotics of the sojourn time S. Using sample-path arguments, it is proven that P {S > x} behaves roughly as the residual job size, i.e., if the job sizes are regularly varying of index -nu, the tail of S is regularly varying of index 1 - nu. In addition, we address the tail asymptotics of other performance metrics, such as the workload in the queue, the flow transfer time and the queueing delay