Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities

An assumption that pervades the current transportation system reliability assessment literature is that probability distributions of the sources of uncertainty are known explicitly. However, this distribution may be unavailable (inaccurate) in reality as we may have no (insufficient) data to calibrate the distribution. In this paper we relax this assumption and present a new method to assess travel time reliability that is distribution-free in the sense that the methodology only requires that the first N moments (where N is a user-specified positive integer) of the travel time to be known and that the travel times reside in a set of bounded and known intervals. Because of our modeling approach, all sources of uncertainty are automatically accounted for, as long as they are statistically independent. Instead of deriving exact probabilities on travel times exceeding certain thresholds via computationally intensive methods, we develop semi-analytical probability inequalities to quickly (i.e. within a fraction of a second) obtain upper bounds on the desired probability. Numerical experiments suggest that the inclusion of higher order moments can potentially significantly improve the bounds. The case study also demonstrates that the derived bounds are nontrivial for a large range of travel time values. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.postprin

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flood simulations

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally

Comparison of pain, cortisol levels, and psychological distress in women undergoing surgical termination of pregnancy under local anaesthesia versus intravenous sedation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The weight of evidence suggests that women who freely choose to terminate a pregnancy are unlikely to experience significant mental health risks, however some studies have documented psychological distress in the form of posttraumatic stress disorder and depression in the aftermath of termination. Choice of anaesthetic has been suggested as a determinant of outcome. This study compared the effects of local anaesthesia and intravenous sedation, administered for elective surgical termination, on outcomes of pain, cortisol, and psychological distress.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>155 women were recruited from a private abortion clinic and state hospital (mean age: 25.4 ± 6.1 years) and assessed on various symptom domains, using both clinician-administered interviews and self-report measures just prior to termination, immediately post-procedure, and at 1 month and 3 months post-procedure. Morning salivary cortisol assays were collected prior to anaesthesia and termination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The group who received local anaesthetic demonstrated higher baseline cortisol levels (mean = 4.7 vs 0.2), more dissociative symptoms immediately post-termination (mean = 14.7 vs 7.3), and higher levels of pain before (mean = 4.9 vs 3.0) and during the procedure (mean = 8.0 vs 4.4). However, in the longer-term (1 and 3 months), there were no significant differences in pain, psychological outcomes (PTSD, depression, self-esteem, state anxiety), or disability between the groups. More than 65% of the variance in PTSD symptoms at 3 months could be explained by baseline PTSD symptom severity and disability, and post-termination dissociative symptoms. Of interest was the finding that pre-procedural cortisol levels were positively correlated with PTSD symptoms at both 1 and 3 months.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High rates of PTSD characterise women who have undergone surgical abortions (almost one fifth of the sample meet criteria for PTSD), with women who receive local anaesthetic experiencing more severe acute reactions. The choice of anesthetic, however, does not appear to impact on longer-term psychiatric outcomes or functional status.</p

Pothead or pot smoker? a taxometric investigation of cannabis dependence

BACKGROUND: Taxometric methods were used to discern the latent structure of cannabis dependence. Such methods help determine if a construct is categorical or dimensional. Taxometric analyses (MAXEIG and MAMBAC) were conducted on data from 1,474 cannabis-using respondents to the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Respondents answered questions assessing DSM-IV criteria for cannabis dependence. RESULTS: Both taxometric methods provided support for a dimensional structure of cannabis dependence. CONCLUSION: Although the MAMBAC results were not entirely unequivocal, the majority of evidence favored a dimensional structure of cannabis dependence

A poisson regression approach for modelling spatial autocorrelation between geographically referenced observations

Abstract Background Analytic methods commonly used in epidemiology do not account for spatial correlation between observations. In regression analyses, omission of that autocorrelation can bias parameter estimates and yield incorrect standard error estimates. Methods We used age standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) of esophageal cancer (EC) from the Babol cancer registry from 2001 to 2005, and extracted socioeconomic indices from the Statistical Centre of Iran. The following models for SIR were used: (1) Poisson regression with agglomeration-specific nonspatial random effects; (2) Poisson regression with agglomeration-specific spatial random effects. Distance-based and neighbourhood-based autocorrelation structures were used for defining the spatial random effects and a pseudolikelihood approach was applied to estimate model parameters. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and adjusted pseudo R2, were used for model comparison. Results A Gaussian semivariogram with an effective range of 225 km best fit spatial autocorrelation in agglomeration-level EC incidence. The Moran's I index was greater than its expected value indicating systematic geographical clustering of EC. The distance-based and neighbourhood-based Poisson regression estimates were generally similar. When residual spatial dependence was modelled, point and interval estimates of covariate effects were different to those obtained from the nonspatial Poisson model. Conclusions The spatial pattern evident in the EC SIR and the observation that point estimates and standard errors differed depending on the modelling approach indicate the importance of accounting for residual spatial correlation in analyses of EC incidence in the Caspian region of Iran. Our results also illustrate that spatial smoothing must be applied with care.</p

Satisfaction with social care: The experiences of people from Chinese backgrounds with physical disabilities

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Echo Yuet Wah Yeung, Martin Partridge, and Fiona Irvine, ‘Satisfaction with social care: the experiences of people from Chinese backgrounds with physical disabilities’, health and Social Care, Vol. 24 (6): 144-154, June 2015, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/hsc.12264. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.The satisfaction of social care among service users provides an important indication of how services are performing. Although there is evidence to suggest that people from black and minority ethnic communities experience less satisfaction with social care than majority groups, there is little literature which focuses specifically on people from Chinese backgrounds in England. This article provides an opportunity to hear the voices of people from Chinese backgrounds and their experiences of social care for a physical disability. Individual semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted in 2012 and 2013 respectively with people from Chinese backgrounds who lived in England, were aged between 18 and 70, and received social care for a physical disability. Interview and focus group transcripts were analysed using a thematic approach. The findings show that language difference created a structural barrier for most participants to negotiating access to and navigating through social care. Language difference and the cultural expectation that families should look after their own were main factors that explained their late utilisation of social care. Because of limited social support, many families struggled to meet the long-term care needs of their relative with a physical disability and hence initially welcome the input of social care. However, many found that social care could not adequately meet their needs but did not feel that they had the right to voice their dissatisfaction. They would either stop using social care services or become more reliant on their family for support. Chinese welfare organisations play a crucial role to meet the cultural and linguistic needs of people from Chinese backgrounds. Closer collaboration between local authorities and Chinese welfare organisations is needed to enable an effective use of social care and community resources to meet the needs of people from Chinese backgrounds with physical disabilities.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Methods for evaluating clustering algorithms for gene expression data using a reference set of functional classes

BACKGROUND: A cluster analysis is the most commonly performed procedure (often regarded as a first step) on a set of gene expression profiles. In most cases, a post hoc analysis is done to see if the genes in the same clusters can be functionally correlated. While past successes of such analyses have often been reported in a number of microarray studies (most of which used the standard hierarchical clustering, UPGMA, with one minus the Pearson's correlation coefficient as a measure of dissimilarity), often times such groupings could be misleading. More importantly, a systematic evaluation of the entire set of clusters produced by such unsupervised procedures is necessary since they also contain genes that are seemingly unrelated or may have more than one common function. Here we quantify the performance of a given unsupervised clustering algorithm applied to a given microarray study in terms of its ability to produce biologically meaningful clusters using a reference set of functional classes. Such a reference set may come from prior biological knowledge specific to a microarray study or may be formed using the growing databases of gene ontologies (GO) for the annotated genes of the relevant species. RESULTS: In this paper, we introduce two performance measures for evaluating the results of a clustering algorithm in its ability to produce biologically meaningful clusters. The first measure is a biological homogeneity index (BHI). As the name suggests, it is a measure of how biologically homogeneous the clusters are. This can be used to quantify the performance of a given clustering algorithm such as UPGMA in grouping genes for a particular data set and also for comparing the performance of a number of competing clustering algorithms applied to the same data set. The second performance measure is called a biological stability index (BSI). For a given clustering algorithm and an expression data set, it measures the consistency of the clustering algorithm's ability to produce biologically meaningful clusters when applied repeatedly to similar data sets. A good clustering algorithm should have high BHI and moderate to high BSI. We evaluated the performance of ten well known clustering algorithms on two gene expression data sets and identified the optimal algorithm in each case. The first data set deals with SAGE profiles of differentially expressed tags between normal and ductal carcinoma in situ samples of breast cancer patients. The second data set contains the expression profiles over time of positively expressed genes (ORF's) during sporulation of budding yeast. Two separate choices of the functional classes were used for this data set and the results were compared for consistency. CONCLUSION: Functional information of annotated genes available from various GO databases mined using ontology tools can be used to systematically judge the results of an unsupervised clustering algorithm as applied to a gene expression data set in clustering genes. This information could be used to select the right algorithm from a class of clustering algorithms for the given data set