Reproducible aspects of the climate of space weather over the last five solar cycles

Each solar maximum interval has a different duration and peak activity level which is reflected in the behaviour of key physical variables that characterize solar and solar wind driving and magnetospheric response. The variation in the statistical distributions of the F10.7 index of solar coronal radio emissions, the dynamic pressure PDyn and effective convection electric field Ey in the solar wind observed in situ upstream of Earth, the ring current index DST, and the high latitude auroral activity index AE, are tracked across the last five solar maxima. For each physical variable we find that the distribution tail (the exceedences above a threshold) can be rescaled onto a single master distribution using the mean and variance specific to each solar maximum interval. We provide Generalized Pareto Distribution fits to the different master distributions for each of the variables. If the mean and variance of the large‐to extreme observations can be predicted for a given solar maximum then their full distribution is known

The dependence of solar wind burst size on burst duration and its invariance across solar cycles 23 and 24

Time series of solar wind variables are “bursty” in nature. Bursts, or excursions, in the time series of solar wind parameters are associated with various transient structures in the solar wind plasma, and are often the drivers of increased space weather activity in Earth's magnetosphere. We define bursts by setting a threshold value of the time series and identifying how often, and for how long, it is exceeded. This allows us to study how the statistical distributions and scaling properties of burst parameters vary over solar cycles 23 and 24. We find the distributions of burst duration and integrated burst size vary over the solar cycle, and between the equivalent phases of consecutive cycles. However, there exists a single power law scaling relation between burst size and duration, with a joint area‐duration scaling exponent α that is independent of the solar cycle. This provides a solar cycle invariant constraint between possible sizes and durations of solar wind bursts that can occur

Observations of red-giant variable stars by Aboriginal Australians

Aboriginal Australians carefully observe the properties and positions of stars, including both overt and subtle changes in their brightness, for subsistence and social application. These observations are encoded in oral tradition. I examine two Aboriginal oral traditions from South Australia that describe the periodic changing brightness in three pulsating, red-giant variable stars: Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis), Aldebaran (Alpha Tauri), and Antares (Alpha Scorpii). The Australian Aboriginal accounts stand as the only known descriptions of pulsating variable stars in any Indigenous oral tradition in the world. Researchers examining these oral traditions over the last century, including anthropologists and astronomers, missed the description of these stars as being variable in nature as the ethnographic record contained several misidentifications of stars and celestial objects. Arguably, ethnographers working on Indigenous Knowledge Systems should have academic training in both the natural and social sciences.Comment: The Australian Journal of Anthropology (2018

Development of a rapid semi-automated tool to measure total kidney volume in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background Total kidney volume (TKV) is an approved early prognostic marker of progression in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. The approval of tolvaptan for patients with rapid disease progression in Europe requires accurate patient stratification. Current methods of TKV measurement rely on manual segmentation which is time consuming, restricting its clinical use. To address this important clinical challenge we report the development and performance of a semi-automated method (Sheffield TKV tool) to measure TKV in patients with this disease. Methods 1.5T MRI scans were acquired (Siemens Avanto) in 61 adult patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Manual segmentation of the kidneys was performed on T2 true fast imaging with steady state precession MRI. Computational semi-automated segmentation methods were tested in a subgroup of ten patients and the optimum method used in all 61 cases to measure TKV (mL). Manual and semi-automated results were compared by Bland–Altman analyses. Processing time for manual and semi-automated methods were recorded. Findings Our cohort consisted of 29 men and 32 women (mean age 45 years, SD 14). Estimated GFR (eGFR) in patients within 1 month of the MRI ranged between 32 and 138 mL/min. TKV measured by manual segmentation ranged between 258 and 3680 mL. The Sheffield TKV tool performed optimally for calculating TKV, reporting accurate results in 80% of cases compared with manual TKV. Inaccuracies were associated with erroneous inclusion of blood vessels, the renal hilum, or leakage into neighbouring tissues, and overall were more frequent in smaller kidneys. Processing time for TKV with the Sheffield TKV tool was 2–5 min compared with 20–30 min for manual segmentation. Interpretation We describe a new rapid, semi-automated method for measuring TKV on MRI which should be a useful tool for evaluating patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. We plan to optimise MRI acquisition sequences and extract the renal hilar volume to improve performance of the Sheffield TKV tool and validate it in another population with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, with the ultimate aim of using it in clinical practice. Funding Insigneo (Institute for in silico medicine) bursary (from Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust), National Institute for Health Research

Faecal sterols analysis for the identification of human faecal pollution in a non-sewered catchment

In this study, faecal sterols were used to identify human faecal pollution in a non-sewered catchment in Southeast Queensland, Australia. In all, 36 water samples were collected from six sites on six occasions and the concentration of sterols were determined using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The stanols concentration in water samples generally increased with increased catchment runoff. After moderate rainfall, high coprostanols levels found in water samples indicated human faecal pollution via defective septic systems. In contrast, it appears that during dry weather human faecal pollution is not occurring in the study catchment. Sterol profiles also pointed to a cattle farm polluting during modest catchment runoff. The method used in this study was able to identify the sources of faecal pollution to the catchment due to rainfall

Australian Aboriginal Ethnometeorology and Seasonal Calendars

This paper uses a cultural anthropological approach to investigate an indigenous Australian perspective on atmospheric phenomena and seasons, using data gained from historical records and ethnographic fieldwork. Aboriginal people believe that the forces driving the weather are derived from Creation Ancestors and spirits, asserting that short term changes are produced through ritual. By recognizing signals such as wind direction, rainfall, temperature change, celestial movements, animal behaviour and the flowering of plants, Aboriginal people are able to divide the year into seasons. Indigenous calendars vary widely across Australia and reflect annual changes within Aboriginal lifestyles

Applying Recent Argumentation Methods to Some Ancient Examples of Plausible Reasoning

Plausible (eikotic) reasoning known from ancient Greek (late Academic) skeptical philosophy is shown to be a clear notion that can be analyzed by argu- mentation methods, and that is important for argumentation studies. It is shown how there is a continuous thread running from the Sophists to the skeptical philosopher Carneades, through remarks of Locke and Bentham on the subject, to recent research in artificial intelligence. Eleven characteristics of plausible reasoning are specified by analyzing key examples of it recognized as important in ancient Greek skeptical philosophy using an artificial intelligence model called the Carneades Argumentation System (CAS). By applying CAS to ancient examples it is shown how plausible reasoning is especially useful for gaining a better understanding of evidential reasoning in law, and argued that it can also be applied to everyday argumentation. Our analysis of the snake and rope example of Carneades is also used to point out some ways CAS needs to be extended if it is to more fully model the views of this ancient philosopher on argumentation

On the Formation of Collective Memories: The Role of a Dominant Narrator.

To test our hypothesis that conversations can contribute to the formation of collective memory, we asked participants to study stories and to recall them individually (pregroup recollection), then as a group (group recounting), and then once again individually (postgroup recollection). One way that postgroup collective memories can be formed under these circumstances is if unshared pregroup recollections in the group recounting influences others\u27 postgroup recollections. In the present research, we explored (using tests of recall and recognition) whether the presence of a dominant narrator can facilitate the emergence of unshared pregroup recollections in a group recounting and whether this emergence is associated with changes in postgroup recollections. We argue that the formation of a collective memory through conversation is not inevitable but is limited by cognitive factors, such as conditions for social contagion, and by situational factors, such as the presence of a narrator