Survival extrapolation using the poly-Weibull model.

Recent studies of (cost-) effectiveness in cardiothoracic transplantation have required estimation of mean survival over the lifetime of the recipients. In order to calculate mean survival, the complete survivor curve is required but is often not fully observed, so that survival extrapolation is necessary. After transplantation, the hazard function is bathtub-shaped, reflecting latent competing risks which operate additively in overlapping time periods. The poly-Weibull distribution is a flexible parametric model that may be used to extrapolate survival and has a natural competing risks interpretation. In addition, treatment effects and subgroups can be modelled separately for each component of risk. We describe the model and develop inference procedures using freely available software. The methods are applied to two problems from cardiothoracic transplantation

Radioactive metals disposal and recycling impact modelling

Screening life cycle assessment models developed to investigate hypothetical disposal and recycling options for the Windscale Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor heat exchangers were used to generate more complex models addressing the main UK radioactive metals inventory. Both studies show there are significant environmental advantages in the metals recycling promoted by the current low level waste disposal policies, strategies and plans. Financial benefits from current metals treatment options are supported and offer even greater benefits when applied to the UK radioactive metals inventory as a whole

Trust and privacy in distributed work groups

Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling and PredictionTrust plays an important role in both group cooperation and economic exchange. As new technologies emerge for communication and exchange, established mechanisms of trust are disrupted or distorted, which can lead to the breakdown of cooperation or to increasing fraud in exchange. This paper examines whether and how personal privacy information about members of distributed work groups influences individuals' cooperation and privacy behavior in the group. Specifically, we examine whether people use others' privacy settings as signals of trustworthiness that affect group cooperation. In addition, we examine how individual privacy preferences relate to trustworthy behavior. Understanding how people interact with others in online settings, in particular when they have limited information, has important implications for geographically distributed groups enabled through new information technologies. In addition, understanding how people might use information gleaned from technology usage, such as personal privacy settings, particularly in the absence of other information, has implications for understanding many potential situations that arise in pervasively networked environments.Preprin

Cystic fibrosis mice carrying the missense mutation G551D replicate human genotype phenotype correlations

We have generated a mouse carrying the human G551D mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene (CFTR) by a one-step gene targeting procedure. These mutant mice show cystic fibrosis pathology but have a reduced risk of fatal intestinal blockage compared with 'null' mutants, in keeping with the reduced incidence of meconium ileus in G551D patients. The G551D mutant mice show greatly reduced CFTR-related chloride transport, displaying activity intermediate between that of cftr(mlUNC) replacement ('null') and cftr(mlHGU) insertional (residual activity) mutants and equivalent to approximately 4% of wild-type CFTR activity. The long-term survival of these animals should provide an excellent model with which to study cystic fibrosis, and they illustrate the value of mouse models carrying relevant mutations for examining genotype-phenotype correlations

HIV-infected sex workers with beneficial HLA-variants are potential hubs for selection of HIV-1 recombinants that may affect disease progression

Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses against the HIV Gag protein are associated with lowering viremia; however, immune control is undermined by viral escape mutations. The rapid viral mutation rate is a key factor, but recombination may also contribute. We hypothesized that CTL responses drive the outgrowth of unique intra-patient HIV-recombinants (URFs) and examined gag sequences from a Kenyan sex worker cohort. We determined whether patients with HLA variants associated with effective CTL responses (beneficial HLA variants) were more likely to carry URFs and, if so, examined whether they progressed more rapidly than patients with beneficial HLA-variants who did not carry URFs. Women with beneficial HLA-variants (12/52) were more likely to carry URFs than those without beneficial HLA variants (3/61) (p < 0.0055; odds ratio = 5.7). Beneficial HLA variants were primarily found in slow/standard progressors in the URF group, whereas they predominated in long-term non-progressors/survivors in the remaining cohort (p = 0.0377). The URFs may sometimes spread and become circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) of HIV and local CRF fragments were over-represented in the URF sequences (p < 0.0001). Collectively, our results suggest that CTL-responses associated with beneficial HLA variants likely drive the outgrowth of URFs that might reduce the positive effect of these CTL responses on disease progression

An Investigation into Gender Disparities in the Field of Computing

This paper explains the reasons as to why there is under-representation of females computer science. Recent research undertaken at a British University focused on gender imbalance amongst academic staff in the Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University. The paper presents evidence that suggests the significance of identifying female role models in the field as a precursor to improving the current gender imbalance amongst academic faculty. In addition, the paper suggests the importance of addressing the negative stereotypical images related to the discipline and suggests the importance of identifying barriers to access and mobility females encounter in the field. The results of this initial investigation demonstrate the subjective belief amongst female academic faculty that in the School of Computing is dominated by male academics. Further, this belief pattern manifests itself in a perceived lack of motivation for promotion in the School. It can be concluded that the deeply entrenched belief system determines a lack of attempts to seek and secure promotion amongst all grades of female faculty. The paper proposes recommendations which the School could adopt to improve recruitment and retention of female academic staff and students

The incidence and make up of ability grouped sets in the UK primary school

The adoption of setting in the primary school (pupils ability grouped across classes for particular subjects) emerged during the 1990s as a means to raise standards. Recent research based on 8875 children in the Millennium Cohort Study showed that 25.8% of children in Year 2 were set for literacy and mathematics and a further 11.2% of children were set for mathematics or literacy alone. Logistic regression analysis showed that the best predictors of being in the top set for literacy or mathematics were whether the child was born in the Autumn or Winter and cognitive ability scores. Boys were significantly more likely than girls to be in the bottom literacy set. Family circumstances held less importance for setting placement compared with the child’s own characteristics, although they were more important in relation to bottom set placement. Children in bottom sets were significantly more likely to be part of a long-term single parent household, have experienced poverty, and not to have a mother with qualifications at NVQ3 or higher levels. The findings are discussed in relation to earlier research and the implications for schools are set out

Condom-use Skills Checklist: A Proxy for Assessing Condom-use Knowledge and Skills When Direct Observation Is Not Possible

Because of the continued importance of correct condom-use in controlling the HIV epidemic and the limited availability of tools for assessing correct condom-use, methods for assessing condom-application skills, especially when direct observation is not feasible, are needed. Accordingly, in the context of a high-risk population (The Bahamas) for HIV, a 17-item scale—the Condom-use Skills Checklist (CUSC)—was developed for use among young adolescents and adults. The rationale and approach to developing the scale and some measures of internal consistency, construct validity, and criterion-related validity have been described. It is concluded that the scale offers a reasonable alternative to direct observation among older subjects and that further development may make it more useful among pre-adolescents