Heritage, pride and place: exploring the contribution of World Heritage Site status to Liverpool’s sense of place and future development

The report considers opportunities and challenges for Liverpool to make the most of its World Heritage Site (WHS) designation, building on the methodologies applied within the Impacts 08 programme to assess the multiple impacts of large-scale cultural interventions. The analysis focuses primarily on the impact of the WHS designation on the image and reputation of Liverpool, as well as on local citizens’ sense of place. Whilst acknowledging findings from previous reports commissioned by English Heritage in relation to the possible impact of development on the Liverpool World Heritage Site’s ‘Outstanding Universal Value’, this study also explores the socio-cultural, economic and political impact of the designation and management of the WHS on the city and its residents

Modelling Deterministic Seasonality with Artificial Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

This study explores both from a theoretical and empirical perspective how to model deterministic seasonality with artificial neural networks (ANN) to achieve the best forecasting accuracy. The aim of this study is to maximise the available seasonal information to the ANN while identifying the most economic form to code it; hence reducing the modelling degrees of freedom and simplifying the network’s training. An empirical evaluation on simulated and real data is performed and in agreement with the theoretical analysis no deseasonalising is required. A parsimonious coding based on seasonal indices is proposed that showed the best forecasting accuracy

Advances in forecasting with artificial neural networks

There is decades long research interest in artificial neural networks (ANNs) that has led to several successful applications. In forecasting, both in theoretical and empirical works, ANNs have shown evidence of good performance, in many cases outperforming established benchmark models. However, our understanding of their inner workings is still limited, which makes it difficult for academicians and practitioners alike to use them. Furthermore, while there is a growing literature supporting their good performance in forecasting, there is also a lot of scepticism whether ANNs are able to provide reliable and robust forecasts. This analysis presents the advances of ANNs in the time series forecasting field, highlighting the current state of the art, which modelling issues have been solved and which are still critical for forecasting with ANNs, indicating future research directions

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Two rationales offered for policymakers' focus on core measures of inflation as a guide to underlying inflation are that core inflation omits food and energy prices, which are thought to be more volatile than other components, and that core inflation is thought to be a better predictor of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors' investigation finds little support for either rationale. They find that food and energy prices are not the most volatile components of inflation and that depending on which inflation measure is used, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. However, they do find that combining CPI and PCE inflation measures can lead to statistically significant more accurate forecasts of each inflation measure, suggesting that each measure includes independent information that can be exploited to yield better forecasts.Inflation (Finance)

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Policymakers tend to focus on core inflation measures because they are thought to be better predictors of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors find little support for this assumption. While some measures of core inflation are less volatile than total inflation, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. The relative forecasting performance of models using core inflation and those using only total inflation depends on the inflation measure and time horizon of the forecast. Unlike previous studies, the authors provide a measure of the statistical significance of the difference in forecast errors. ; Supersedes Working Paper 08-9.Inflation (Finance)

Simulation studies of improved sounding systems

Two instrument designs for indirect satellite sounding of the atmosphere in the infrared are represented by the High Resolution Infra-Red Sounder, Model 2 (HIRS-2) and by the Advanced Meteorological Temperature Sounder (AMTS). The relative capabilities of the two instruments were tested by simulating satellite measurements from a group of temperature soundings, allowing the two participants to retrieve the temperature profiles from the simulated data, and comparing the results with the original temperature profiles. Four data sets were produced from radiosondes data extrapolated to a suitable altitude, representing continents and oceans, between 30S and 30N. From the information available, temperature profiles were retrieved by two different methods, statistical regression and inversion of the radiative transfer equation. Results show the consequence of greater spectral purity, concomitant increase in the number of spectral intervals, and the better spatial resolution in partly clouded areas. At the same time, the limitation of the HIRS-2 without its companion instrument leads to some results which should be ignored in comparing the two instruments. A clear superiority of AMTS results is shown

Case Difficulty of Simulation Software

Preliminary results concerning difficulty levels of client cases in Simulations in Developmental Disabilities: SIDD are presented. Participants conducted assessments to identify causes of problem behavior and propose treatments for 10 clients. Although SIDD may teach clinical decision-making skills, providing numerous cases did not guarantee learning for all participants. Exposure to a difficult case early in instruction was associated with better overall performance by participants. Additionally, treatment performance best indicated perceived difficulty level. Further experimental research comparing order of difficulty is recommended

Neural perspectives on cognitive control development during childhood and adolescence

Pathways through Adolescenc

Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems

We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time Dt following the previous activity shift is proportional to the inverse of Dt to the power 1+x, a result that is robust in the presence of annealed noise and strength weakening. A mean field theory accounts for the observed dependence of the persistence exponent x as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults. These results continue to hold if the number of competing faults is increased. This is related to the persistence phenomenon discovered in a large variety of systems, which specifies how long a relaxing dynamical system remains in a neighborhood of its initial configuration. Our persistence exponent is found to vary as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults, thus defining a novel universality class.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Revte

Studies of properties of “Pain Networks” as predictors of targets of stimulation for treatment of pain

Two decades of functional imaging studies have demonstrated pain-related activations of primary somatic sensory cortex (S1), parasylvian cortical structures (PS), and medial frontal cortical structures (MF), which are often described as modules in a “pain network.” The directionality and temporal dynamics of interactions between and within the cortical and thalamic modules are uncertain. We now describe our studies of these interactions based upon recordings of local field potentials (LFPs) carried out in an epilepsy monitoring unit over the one week period between the implantation and removal of cortical electrodes during the surgical treatment of epilepsy. These recordings have unprecedented clarity and resolution for the study of LFPs related to the experimental pain induced by cutaneous application of a Thulium YAG laser. We also used attention and distraction as behavioral probes to study the psychophysics and neuroscience of the cortical “pain network.” In these studies, electrical activation of cortex was measured by event-related desynchronization (ERD), over SI, PS, and MF modules, and was more widespread and intense while attending to painful stimuli than while being distracted from them. This difference was particularly prominent over PS. In addition, greater perceived intensity of painful stimuli was associated with more widespread and intense ERD. Connectivity of these modules was then examined for dynamic causal interactions within and between modules by using the Granger causality (GRC). Prior to the laser stimuli, a task involving attention to the painful stimulus consistently increased the number of event-related causality (ERC) pairs both within the SI cortex, and from SI upon PS (SI > PS). After the laser stimulus, attention to a painful stimulus increased the number of ERC pairs from SI > PS, and SI > MF, and within the SI module. LFP at some electrode sites (critical sites) exerted ERC influences upon signals at multiple widespread electrodes, both in other cortical modules and within the module where the critical site was located. In summary, critical sites and SI modules may bind the cortical modules together into a “pain network,” and disruption of that network by stimulation might be used to treat pain. These results in humans may be uniquely useful to design and optimize anatomically based pain therapies, such as stimulation of the S1 or critical sites through transcutaneous magnetic fields or implanted electrodes