Towards understanding factors influencing the benefit of diversity in predator communities for prey suppression

It is generally assumed that high biodiversity is key to sustaining critical ecosystem services, including prey suppression by natural predator guilds. Prey suppression is driven by complex interactions between members of predator and prey communities, as well as their shared environment. Because of this, empirical studies have found both positive and negative effects of high predator diversity on prey suppression. However, we lack an understanding of when these different prey suppression outcomes will occur. In this work, we use a mechanistic, trait-based model to unravel how intraguild interactions, species body mass, predator foraging area, and ambient temperature can combine to produce different levels of prey suppression. Surprisingly, we find that prey suppression is only improved by high biodiversity under a limited set of conditions. The most important factor in determining whether diversity improves prey sup- pression is the amount of overlap between predators’ foraging areas. The degree of overlap in foraging areas shapes species interactions, and as the overlap between species increases, we see decreasing benefits from species-rich communities. In contrast, diversity in body mass only improves prey suppression when there is significant variation in temperature

Temperature fluctuation alters optimal predator community composition for anticipated biological control

Alongside pesticides and specialist predators, natural communities of generalist beetle and spider predators play an important role in suppressing agricultural pests. However, the predation pressure of natural communities can be unpredictable. Overall predation pressure is influenced by a dense network of potential intraguild interactions, which are further shaped by species traits and environmental factors. Understanding how these different influences combine to impact pest control is especially important in the context of changing global temperatures. Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that the foraging behavior of arthropod predators is influenced by an interaction between temperature and predator body size. To explore the consequences of these findings for intraguild interactions and pest control, we expand a previously published model describing interactions between arthropod predators and a pest population. The model assumed that interaction strengths are influenced by body size and habitat preference. In our updated model, we incorporate the effect of temperature on predator foraging activity. We parameterize the model to match empirically observed predator community composition in 10 agricultural fields and use simulations to demonstrate how temperature-dependent behaviors change the expected efficiency of the natural predator community. Then, we use an optimization approach to identify the most efficient composition of natural predators for pest control. We then evaluate whether the most efficient predator compositions would change with increasing average daily temperature and its variability, as is expected under future temperature change. We find that optimal communities often include predators with complementary foraging activity and that in 2 fields, the optimal community changes drastically under future temperatures. We also note that at some temperatures, foraging activity reduces the negative effects of intraguild interference on pest consumption. This work allows us to assess the effect of climate change on the efficiency of natural predator communities to control pest populations and provide guidance for farmers to design pest management strategies tailored to different climate scenarios

Priority resource access mediates competitive intensity between an invasive weevil and native floral herbivores

Mechanisms underlying invasive species impacts remain incompletely understood. We tested the hypothesis that priority resource access by an invasive biocontrol weevil, Rhinocyllus conicus, intensifies and alters the outcome of competition with native floral herbivores over flower head resources of the non-target, native host plant Cirsium canescens, specifically with the predominant, synchronous tephritid fly Paracantha culta. Four main results emerged. First, we documented strong, asymmetric competition, with R. conicus out-competing P. culta. Second, weevil priority access to floral resources accelerated competitive suppression of P. culta. Evidence for competitive suppression with increased weevil priority included decreases in both the numbers and the total biomass of native flies, plus decreases in individual P. culta fly mass and, so, potential fitness. Third, we found evidence for three concurrent mechanisms underlying the competitive suppression of P. culta by R. conicus. Prior use of a flower head by R. conicus interfered with P. culta pre-oviposition behavior. Once oviposition occurred, the weevil also reduced fly post-oviposition performance. Preemptive resource exploitation occurred, shown by the significant effect of flower head size on the total number of insects developing and in the magnitude of R. conicus effects on P. culta. Interference also occurred, shown by a spatial shift of surviving P. culta individuals away from the preferred receptacle resources as R. conicus priority increased. Finally, fourth, using an individual-based model (IBM), we found that the competitive interactions documented have the potential for imposing demographic consequences, causing a reduction in P. culta population sizes. Thus, priority resource access by an invasive insect increased competitive impact on the predominant native insect in the invaded floral guild. This study also provides the first experimental evidence for non-target effects of a weed biological control agent on an associated native insect herbivore. Includes supplementary materials

Priority resource access mediates competitive intensity between an invasive weevil and native floral herbivores

Mechanisms underlying invasive species impacts remain incompletely understood. We tested the hypothesis that priority resource access by an invasive biocontrol weevil, Rhinocyllus conicus, intensifies and alters the outcome of competition with native floral herbivores over flower head resources of the non-target, native host plant Cirsium canescens, specifically with the predominant, synchronous tephritid fly Paracantha culta. Four main results emerged. First, we documented strong, asymmetric competition, with R. conicus out-competing P. culta. Second, weevil priority access to floral resources accelerated competitive suppression of P. culta. Evidence for competitive suppression with increased weevil priority included decreases in both the numbers and the total biomass of native flies, plus decreases in individual P. culta fly mass and, so, potential fitness. Third, we found evidence for three concurrent mechanisms underlying the competitive suppression of P. culta by R. conicus. Prior use of a flower head by R. conicus interfered with P. culta pre-oviposition behavior. Once oviposition occurred, the weevil also reduced fly post-oviposition performance. Preemptive resource exploitation occurred, shown by the significant effect of flower head size on the total number of insects developing and in the magnitude of R. conicus effects on P. culta. Interference also occurred, shown by a spatial shift of surviving P. culta individuals away from the preferred receptacle resources as R. conicus priority increased. Finally, fourth, using an individual-based model (IBM), we found that the competitive interactions documented have the potential for imposing demographic consequences, causing a reduction in P. culta population sizes. Thus, priority resource access by an invasive insect increased competitive impact on the predominant native insect in the invaded floral guild. This study also provides the first experimental evidence for non-target effects of a weed biological control agent on an associated native insect herbivore. Includes supplementary materials

Modelling radiation-induced cell cycle delays

Ionizing radiation is known to delay the cell cycle progression. In particular after particle exposure significant delays have been observed and it has been shown that the extent of delay affects the expression of damage such as chromosome aberrations. Thus, to predict how cells respond to ionizing radiation and to derive reliable estimates of radiation risks, information about radiation-induced cell cycle perturbations is required. In the present study we describe and apply a method for retrieval of information about the time-course of all cell cycle phases from experimental data on the mitotic index only. We study the progression of mammalian cells through the cell cycle after exposure. The analysis reveals a prolonged block of damaged cells in the G2 phase. Furthermore, by performing an error analysis on simulated data valuable information for the design of experimental studies has been obtained. The analysis showed that the number of cells analyzed in an experimental sample should be at least 100 to obtain a relative error less than 20%.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Radiation and Environmental Biophysic

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Aphid and Plant Volatiles Induce Oviposition in an Aphidophagous Hoverfly

Episyrphus balteatus DeGeer (Diptera, Syrphidae) is an abundant and efficient aphid-specific predator. We tested the electroantennographic (EAG) response of this syrphid fly to the common aphid alarm pheromone, (E)-β-farnesene (EβF), and to several plant volatiles, including terpenoids (mono- and sesquiterpenes) and green leaf volatiles (C6 and C9 alcohols and aldehydes). Monoterpenes evoked significant EAG responses, whereas sesquiterpenes were inactive, except for the aphid alarm pheromone (EβF). The most pronounced antennal responses were elicited by six and nine carbon green leaf alcohols and aldehydes [i.e., (Z)-3-hexenol, (E)-2-hexenol, (E)-2-hexenal, and hexanal]. To investigate the behavioral activity of some of these EAG-active compounds, E. balteatus females were exposed to R-(+)-limonene (monoterpene), (Z)-3-hexenol (green leaf alcohol), and EβF (sesquiterpene, common aphid alarm pheromone). A single E. balteatus gravid female was exposed for 10 min to an aphid-free Vicia faba plant that was co-located with a semiochemical dispenser. Without additional semiochemical, hoverfly females were not attracted to this plant, and no oviposition was observed. The monoterpene R-(+)-limonene did not affect the females’ foraging behavior, whereas (Z)-3-hexenol and EβF increased the time of flight and acceptance of the host plant. Moreover, these two chemicals induced oviposition on aphid-free plants, suggesting that selection of the oviposition site by predatory hoverflies relies on the perception of a volatile blend composed of prey pheromone and typical plant green leaf volatiles

A standard protocol to report discrete stage‐structured demographic information

Stage-based demographic methods, such as matrix population models (MPMs), are powerful tools used to address a broad range of fundamental questions in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation science. Accordingly, MPMs now exist for over 3000 species worldwide. These data are being digitised as an ongoing process and periodically released into two large open-access online repositories: the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. During the last decade, data archiving and curation of COMPADRE and COMADRE, and subsequent comparative research, have revealed pronounced variation in how MPMs are parameterized and reported. Here, we summarise current issues related to the parameterisation and reporting of MPMs that arise most frequently and outline how they affect MPM construction, analysis, and interpretation. To quantify variation in how MPMs are reported, we present results from a survey identifying key aspects of MPMs that are frequently unreported in manuscripts. We then screen COMPADRE and COMADRE to quantify how often key pieces of information are omitted from manuscripts using MPMs. Over 80% of surveyed researchers (n = 60) state a clear benefit to adopting more standardised methodologies for reporting MPMs. Furthermore, over 85% of the 300 MPMs assessed from COMPADRE and COMADRE omitted one or more elements that are key to their accurate interpretation. Based on these insights, we identify fundamental issues that can arise from MPM construction and communication and provide suggestions to improve clarity, reproducibility and future research utilising MPMs and their required metadata. To fortify reproducibility and empower researchers to take full advantage of their demographic data, we introduce a standardised protocol to present MPMs in publications. This standard is linked to www.compadre-db.org, so that authors wishing to archive their MPMs can do so prior to submission of publications, following examples from other open-access repositories such as DRYAD, Figshare and Zenodo. Combining and standardising MPMs parameterized from populations around the globe and across the tree of life opens up powerful research opportunities in evolutionary biology, ecology and conservation research. However, this potential can only be fully realised by adopting standardised methods to ensure reproducibility