Warranting the use of causal claims: a non-trivial case for interdisciplinarity

To what use can causal claims established in good studies be put? We give examples of studies from which inaccurate inferences were made about target policy situations. The usual diagnosis is that the studies in question lack external validity, which means that the same results do not hold in the target as in study. That’s a label that just repeats what we already knew. We offer a deeper analysis. Our analysis points to the need for interdisciplinarity and to the demand to focus not on the study – as the expression ‘external validity’ invites you to do – but on the target. The call for interdisciplinary approaches to real life problems is common since it is widely acknowledged that what happens in the real world seldom falls under the auspices of any single research domain. Our focus is on one specific real life problem: how to use causal claims from good studies to help predict whether the policies tested will work in a new situation. Our analysis of what it takes to back up these predictions points up very specific stages in the process of prediction where we are bound to get it wrong if we do not diversify our concepts, our knowledge and our methods. We isolate two reasons inferences from study to target fail. First, policy variables do not produce results on their own; they need helping factors. The distribution of helping factors is likely to be unique or local for each study, so one cannot expect external validity to be all that common. Second, researchers often give too concrete a description of the cause in the study for it to carry over to the target. Abstraction is necessary to get causes that travel. There is no sure-fire way to guard against these problems. But the unavailability of one perfect tool does not imply there are no second best contrivances. Two general pointers for Good Practice in policy advice follow from our diagnosis: focus on the concrete details in the target and use cross discipline heuristics that diversify background knowledge

Optical Classification of Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Swift Era

We propose a new method for the classification of optically dark gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), based on the X-ray and optical-to-X-ray spectral indices of GRB afterglows, and utilizing the spectral capabilities of Swift. This method depends less on model assumptions than previous methods, and can be used as a quick diagnostic tool to identify optically sub-luminous bursts. With this method we can also find GRBs that are extremely bright at optical wavelengths. We show that the previously suggested correlation between the optical darkness and the X-ray/gamma-ray brightness is merely an observational selection effect.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures; accepted for publication in Ap

Testing the standard fireball model of GRBs using late X-ray afterglows measured by Swift

We show that all X-ray decay curves of GRBs measured by Swift can be fitted using one or two components both of which have exactly the same functional form comprised of an early falling exponential phase followed by a power law decay. The 1st component contains the prompt gamma-ray emission and the initial X-ray decay. The 2nd component appears later, has a much longer duration and is present for ~80% of GRBs. It most likely arises from the external shock which eventually develops into the X-ray afterglow. In the remaining ~20% of GRBs the initial X-ray decay of the 1st component fades more slowly than the 2nd and dominates at late times to form an afterglow but it is not clear what the origin of this emission is. The temporal decay parameters and gamma/X-ray spectral indices derived for 107 GRBs are compared to the expectations of the standard fireball model including a search for possible "jet breaks". For ~50% of GRBs the observed afterglow is in accord with the model but for the rest the temporal and spectral indices do not conform to the expected closure relations and are suggestive of continued, late, energy injection. We identify a few possible jet breaks but there are many examples where such breaks are predicted but are absent. The time, T_a, at which the exponential phase of the 2nd component changes to a final powerlaw decay afterglow is correlated with the peak of the gamma-ray spectrum, E_peak. This is analogous to the Ghirlanda relation, indicating that this time is in some way related to optically observed break times measured for pre-Swift bursts.Comment: submitted to Ap

The host galaxy of GRB010222: The strongest damped Lyman-alpha system known

Analysis of the absorption lines in the afterglow spectrum of the gamma-ray burst GRB010222 indicates that its host galaxy (at a redshift of z=1.476) is the strongest damped Lyman-alpha (DLA) system known, having a very low metallicity and modest dust content. This conclusion is based on the detection of the red wing of Lyman-alpha plus a comparison of the equivalent widths of ultraviolet Mg I, Mg II, and Fe II lines with those in other DLAs. The column density of H I, deduced from a fit to the wing of Lyman-alpha, is (5 +/- 2) 10^22 cm^-2. The ratio of the column densities of Zn and Cr lines suggests that the dust content in our line of sight through the galaxy is low. This could be due to either dust destruction by the ultraviolet emission of the afterglow or to an initial dust composition different to that of the diffuse interstellar material, or a combination of both.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS 12 page

VLT observations of GRB 990510 and its environment

We present BVRI photometry and spectrophotometry of GRB990510 obtained with the ESO VLT/Antu telescope during the late decline phase. Between days 8 and 29 after the burst, the afterglow faded from R=24.2 to ~26.4. The spectral flux distribution and the light curve support the interpretation of the afterglow as synchrotron emission from a jet. The light curve is consistent with the optical transient alone but an underlying SN with maximum brightness R>27.4 or a galaxy with R>27.6 (3-sigma upper limits) cannot be ruled out. To a 5-sigma detection threshold of R=26.1, no galaxy is found within 6'' of the transient. A very blue V~24.5 extended object which may qualify as a starburst galaxy is located 12'' SE, but at unknown redshift.Comment: 5 pages A&A Latex, accepted for publication in A&A Letter

SCUBA observations of the host galaxies of four dark gamma-ray bursts

We present the results of a search for submillimetre-luminous host galaxies of optically dark gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) using the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). We made photometry measurements of the 850-micron flux at the location of four `dark bursts', which are those with no detected optical afterglow despite rapid deep searches, and which may therefore be within galaxies containing substantial amounts of dust. We were unable to detect any individual source significantly. Our results are consistent with predictions for the host galaxy population as a whole, rather than for a subset of dusty hosts. This indicates that optically dark GRBs are not especially associated with very submillimetre-luminous galaxies and so cannot be used as reliable indicators of dust-enshrouded massive star-formation activity. Further observations are required to establish the relationship between the wider GRB host galaxy population and SCUBA galaxies.Comment: 6 pages. Accepted for publication in MNRA