61 research outputs found

    Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

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    Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%

    Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

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    Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

    Nonlinear interactions in the thalamocortical loop in essential tremor: A model-based frequency domain analysis.

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    There is increasing evidence to suggest that essential tremor has a central origin. Different structures appear to be part of the central tremorogenic network, including the motor cortex, the thalamus and the cerebellum. Some studies using electroencephalogram (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) show linear association in the tremor frequency between the motor cortex and the contralateral tremor electromyography (EMG). Additionally, high thalamomuscular coherence is found with the use of thalamic local field potential (LFP) recordings and tremulous EMG in patients undergoing surgery for deep brain stimulation (DBS). Despite a well-established reciprocal anatomical connection between the thalamus and cortex, the functional association between the two structures during "tremor-on" periods remains elusive. Thalamic (Vim) LFPs, ipsilateral scalp EEG from the sensorimotor cortex and contralateral tremor arm EMG recordings were obtained from two patients with essential tremor who had undergone successful surgery for DBS. Coherence analysis shows a strong linear association between thalamic LFPs and contralateral tremor EMG, but the relationship between the EEG and the thalamus is much less clear. These measurements were then analyzed by constructing a novel parametric nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model. This new approach uncovered two distinct and not overlapping frequency "channels" of communication between Vim thalamus and the ipsilateral motor cortex, defining robustly "tremor-on" versus "tremor-off" states. The associated estimated nonlinear time lags also showed non-overlapping values between the two states, with longer corticothalamic lags (exceeding 50ms) in the tremor active state, suggesting involvement of an indirect multisynaptic loop. The results reveal the importance of the nonlinear interactions between cortical and subcortical areas in the central motor network of essential tremor. This work is important because it demonstrates for the first time that in essential tremor the functional interrelationships between the cortex and thalamus should not be sought exclusively within individual frequencies but more importantly between cross-frequency nonlinear interactions. Should our results be successfully reproduced on a bigger cohort of patients with essential tremor, our approach could be used to create an on-demand closed-loop DBS device, able to automatically activate when the tremor is on

    Citizen Heritage and Geoheritage : A Sampling Campaign for Cosmogenic 36Cl Surface Exposure Dating of Glacial Deposits in Mt Parnassus National Park, Greece

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    International audienceA sampling campaign for 36Cl dating of Quaternary moraines was conducted in June 2021 with an open call on social media for participation of citizens regardless of their background. The organization was jointly realized by geoscientists and mountain hiking professional guides. A multi-beneficial collaboration both for science and geoheritage was achieved which resulted in a very efficient sampling campaign. At the same time participants and professional guides were actively involved in scientific research thus gaining a deeper understanding of the geoheritage of Mt Parnassus National Park
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