Analyse de sensibilité globale d'un modèle spatialisé pour l'évaluation économique du risque d'inondation

L'analyse de sensibilité globale peine à se développer dans le champ de la modélisation environnementale. Dans sa formulation initiale, elle est limitée à l'étude de modèles Y = f (X1; : : : ;Xp) où les variables d'entrée Xj et la sortie Y sont scalaires, alors que nombre de modèles environnementaux incluent une dimension spatiale marquée, soit qu'ils fassent appel à des cartes comme variables d'entrée, soit que leurs sorties soient distribuées spatialement. Au travers d'une étude de cas détaillée, nous présentons dans cet article une extension de l'analyse de sensibilité globale à l'étude de modèles spatialisés. Le modèle étudié, nommé ACB-DE, est un outil d'évaluation économique du risque d'inondation. Il est ici appliqué sur la basse-vallée de l'Orb (Hérault). Des spécifications spatialisées de l'incertitude sont utilisées pour générer un nombre fini de réalisations aléatoires équiprobables des variables d'entrée qui sont des cartes : les effets de structure spatiale ou d'auto-corrélation dans ces cartes peuvent ainsi être pris en compte. La réalisation de cartes d'indices de sensibilité permet ensuite d'étudier les sorties spatialisées du modèle ACB-DE et de rendre compte de la variabilité spatiale des indices de Sobol. L'influence relative des variables d'entrée à différentes échelles d'étude est analysée par la réalisation de cartes d'indices de sensibilité de résolution croissante. L'analyse réalisée permet d'identifier les variables d'entrée incertaines qui expliquent la plus grande part de la variabilité de l'indicateur économique fourni par le modèle ACB-DE ; elle apporte un éclairage nouveau sur le choix de l'échelle adéquate de représentation spatialisée de cet indicateur selon la précision des variables d'entrée. L'approche proposée pourrait être aisément appliquée à d'autres modèles spatialisés peu coûteux en temps de calcul. / Variance-based Sobol' global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was initially designed for the study of models with scalar inputs and outputs, while many models in the environmental field are spatially explicit. As a result, GSA is not a common practise in environmental modelling. In this paper we describe a detailed case study where GSA is performed on a spatially dependent model for flood risk economic assessment on the Orb valley (southeast France). Spatial input factors are handled by associating randomly generated map realizations to scalar values sampled from discrete uniform distributions. The realisations of random input maps can be generated by any method including geostatistical simulation techniques, allowing for spatial structure and auto-correlation to be taken into account. The estimation of sensitivity indices on ACB-DE spatial outputs makes it possible to produce maps of sensitivity indices. These maps describe the spatial variability of Sobol' indices. Sensitivity maps of different resolutions are then compared to discuss the relative influence of uncertain input factors at different scales

Fuera de lugar: Undocumented Students, Dislocation, and the Search for Belonging

This article presents findings from a Youth Participatory Action Research (YPAR) study on the experiences of six undocumented college students at a community college in the Midwest United States. We focused on two main research questions: What are some of the key developmental experiences of undocumented youth? What is the impact of these experiences on the students’ identity and sense of belonging in educational spaces, especially as they transition to college? The findings illustrate the experiences of the six participant coresearchers (PCRs) as they navigated the messy, fragile, and shifting nature of belonging. A common thread in their narratives was the recurrence across their young lives of moments of dislocation (or “being-out-of-place”) associated with their undocumented status. These moments of dislocation barred these undocumented students from fully inhabiting both educational and noneducational spaces; in addition, they affected their ability to develop a sense of belonging as they transitioned to the college environment. Dislocation entails a degree of vulnerability and liminality that is not necessarily encompassed in current models of student development theory, nor considered in institutional support structures created with majority-population students in mind. We argue that institutional agents require sensitivity to the multiple types of dislocation that undocumented youth may experience within and beyond educational settings

‘In the dark’: Voices of parents in marginalised stepfamilies: perceptions and experiences of their parenting support needs

The fastest growing family type in the UK is the stepfamily with social parenting an increasingly normal practice. Parenting policy and practice, which has increased exponentially over the last two decades, has historically been modelled on the biological nuclear family model with marginalised families the main recipients. The possibility that parents in marginalised stepfamilies might have separate and discrete parenting support needs to biological parents seems to be overlooked in policy, practice and research. Rather, the historical legacy of deficit, dysfunction and a ‘whiff’ of poor parenting in marginalised stepfamilies lingers on. The focus of the research was to determine marginalised parents’ perceptions and experiences of parenting in their stepfamily and their parenting support needs. Thematic analysis of the data revealed accounts that were interwoven throughout with strong moral undertones which seemed to categorise their lives. The parenting issues were different and more complex than those they had encountered before. The parents adopted biological family identities, but these didn’t fit with their social roles and often rendered them powerless in their relationships with stepchildren. This appeared to have a cumulative effect which impacted on the already fragile couple relationship. Despite the parents easy articulation of the parenting issues there was a contrasting unease and ambivalence in discussing parenting support needs. Parenting support seemed to be an irrelevance that could be disregarded. Ultimately the moral significance of the parents marginalised class positions appeared to be central to their lives, which has important implications for policy and practice

The programming of sequences of saccades

Saccadic eye movements move the high-resolution fovea to point at regions of interest. Saccades can only be generated serially (i.e., one at a time). However, what remains unclear is the extent to which saccades are programmed in parallel (i.e., a series of such moments can be planned together) and how far ahead such planning occurs. In the current experiment, we investigate this issue with a saccade contingent preview paradigm. Participants were asked to execute saccadic eye movements in response to seven small circles presented on a screen. The extent to which participants were given prior information about target locations was varied on a trial-by-trial basis: participants were aware of the location of the next target only, the next three, five, or all seven targets. The addition of new targets to the display was made during the saccade to the next target in the sequence. The overall time taken to complete the sequence was decreased as more targets were available up to all seven targets. This was a result of a reduction in the number of saccades being executed and a reduction in their saccade latencies. Surprisingly, these results suggest that, when faced with a demand to saccade to a large number of target locations, saccade preparation about all target locations is carried out in paralle

Fragmentation branching ratios of highly excited hydrocarbon molecules CnH and their cations CnH+ (n<4)

We have measured fragmentation branching ratios of neutral CnH and CnH+ cations produced in high velocity (4.5 a.u) collisions between incident CnH+ cations and helium atoms. Electron capture gives rise to excited neutral species CnH and electronic excitation to excited cations CnH+. Thanks to a dedicated set-up, based on coincident detection of all fragments, the dissociation of the neutral and cationic parents were recorded separately and in a complete way. For the fragmentation of CnH, the H-loss channel is found to be dominant, as already observed by other authors. By contrast, the H-loss and C-loss channels equally dominate the two-fragment break up of CnH+ species. For these cations, we provide the first fragmentation data (n > 2). Results are also discussed in the context of astrochemistry

Charge and current-sensitive preamplifiers for pulse shape discrimination techniques with silicon detectors

New charge and current-sensitive preamplifiers coupled to silicon detectors and devoted to studies in nuclear structure and dynamics have been developed and tested. For the first time shapes of current pulses from light charged particles and carbon ions are presented. Capabilities for pulse shape discrimination techniques are demonstrated.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, to be published in Nucl. Inst. Meth.

Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard

An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5, is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model&rsquo;s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST.</p

Measurement of CD4+ and CD8+ T-Lymphocyte Cytokine Secretion and Gene Expression Changes in p-Phenylenediamine Allergic Patients and Tolerant Individuals

Factors predisposing to individual susceptibility to contact allergic dermatitis are ill defined. This study was designed to characterize the response of allergic and tolerant individuals’ T-lymphocytes after exposure to p-phenylenediamine (PPD). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from allergic patients proliferated when treated with PPD and Bandrowski's base (BB) and secreted IL-1α, -1β, -4, -5, -6, -8, -10, and -13; IFN-γ; tumor necrosis factor-α; MIP-1α/β; MCP-1 (monocyte chemotactic protein-1); and RANTES. PBMCs from tolerant individuals were stimulated to proliferate only with BB, and they secreted significantly lower levels of Th2 cytokines. Principal component analysis showed that genes are differentially expressed between the patient groups. A network-based analysis of microarray data showed upregulation of T helper type 2 (Th2) gene pathways, including IL-9, in allergic patients, but a regulatory gene profile in tolerant individuals. Real-time PCR confirmed the observed increase in Th2 cytokine gene transcription in allergic patients. Purified CD4+ and CD8+ T cells from allergic patients were stimulated to proliferate and secrete Th2 cytokines following antigen exposure. Only CD4+ T cells from tolerant individuals were stimulated by BB, and levels of Th2 cytokines were 80% lower. The nature of the antigenic determinant stimulating PBMCs and levels of Th2 cytokines, including IL-9, was confirmed in a validation cohort. These studies show increased activity of Th2 cytokines in CD4+ and CD8+ T cells from individuals with allergic contact dermatitis

Experts Consensus Recommendations for the Management of Calcium Channel Blocker Poisoning in Adults

Objective: To provide a management approach for adults with calcium channel blocker poisoning. Data Sources, Study Selection, and Data Extraction: Following the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation II instrument, initial voting statements were constructed based on summaries outlining the evidence, risks, and benefits. Data Synthesis: We recommend 1) for asymptomatic patients, observation and consideration of decontamination following a potentially toxic calcium channel blocker ingestion (1D); 2) as first-line therapies (prioritized based on desired effect), IV calcium (1D), high-dose insulin therapy (1D-2D), and norepinephrine and/or epinephrine (1D). We also suggest dobutamine or epinephrine in the presence of cardiogenic shock (2D) and atropine in the presence of symptomatic bradycardia or conduction disturbance (2D); 3) in patients refractory to the first-line treatments, we suggest incremental doses of high-dose insulin therapy if myocardial dysfunction is present (2D), IV lipid-emulsion therapy (2D), and using a pacemaker in the presence of unstable bradycardia or high-grade arteriovenous block without significant alteration in cardiac inotropism (2D); 4) in patients with refractory shock or who are periarrest, we recommend incremental doses of high-dose insulin (1D) and IV lipid-emulsion therapy (1D) if not already tried. We suggest venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, if available, when refractory shock has a significant cardiogenic component (2D), and using pacemaker in the presence of unstable bradycardia or high-grade arteriovenous block in the absence of myocardial dysfunction (2D) if not already tried; 5) in patients with cardiac arrest, we recommend IV calcium in addition to the standard advanced cardiac life-support (1D), lipid-emulsion therapy (1D), and we suggest venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation if available (2D). Conclusion: We offer recommendations for the stepwise management of calcium channel blocker toxicity. For all interventions, the level of evidence was very low