Optimal Equity Valuation Using Multiples: The Number of Comparable Firms

We examine how the accuracy of a multiples-based valuation changes as the number of comparable firms used to estimate the valuation multiple increases. Our research is motivated by a contrast between the approach followed by practitioners, who typically use a small number of closely comparable firms, and the academic literature which often uses all firms in an industry. Using a simple selection rule based on growth rates, we find that using ten closely comparable firms is as accurate on average as using the entire cross-section of firms in an industry. Using five comparable firms is slightly less accurate. However, the loss of accuracy from using five comparable firms rather than ten firms or the entire industry is not great. The relative accuracy of a valuation based on five comparables does not vary in a predicable way across industries, except that it is generally better to use a small number rather than all firms in an industry with a large number of members. However, the relative accuracy of a valuation based on a small number of comparables does depend heavily on the similarity of the comparable firms to the target firm. If there are firms in the same industry with growth rates close to that of the target firm, then it is better to use a small number of comparables. Adding more firms simply adds noise, on average

Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: an Econometric Investigation of Non-macro Factors

Following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris, the European media emphatically pronounced that billions of euros were wiped from tourism related stocks. This comes at a troublesome time for the tourism industry, in the midst of a global financial crisis, and the unpredictable rise of radical Islamic ideologies, which have caused chaos in the Middle East and Europe. The relationship and vulnerability of the industry to non-macro incidents have been well documented in the literature, mostly in theoretical terms. Nevertheless, the quantifiable impact of such events on tourism-specific stock values, both in terms of returns and volatility, received much less attention. With the use of an econometric methodology, the paper aims to enhance our conceptual capital pertaining to the effects of such possibilities on five hospitality and tourism stock indices. The empirical findings are of interest to stakeholders at all echelons of the spectra of the tourism and financial industries

Motives for corporate cash holdings:the CEO optimism effect

We examine the chief executive officer (CEO) optimism effect on managerial motives for cash holdings and find that optimistic and non-optimistic managers have significantly dissimilar purposes for holding more cash. This is consistent with both theory and evidence that optimistic managers are reluctant to use external funds. Optimistic managers hoard cash for growth opportunities, use relatively more cash for capital expenditure and acquisitions, and save more cash in adverse conditions. By contrast, they hold fewer inventories and receivables and their precautionary demand for cash holdings is less than that of non-optimistic managers. In addition, we consider debt conservatism in our model and find no evidence that optimistic managers’ cash hoarding is related to their preference to use debt conservatively. We also document that optimistic managers hold more cash in bad times than non-optimistic managers do. Our work highlights the crucial role that CEO characteristics play in shaping corporate cash holding policy

Ownership Structure and Operating Performance: Evidence from the European Maritime Industry

In this paper we examine the relation between ownership structure and operating performance for European maritime firms. Using a sample of 266 firm-year observations, during the period 2002-2004, we provide evidence that operating performance is positively related with foreign held shares and investment corporation held shares, indicating better investor protection from managerial opportunism. We also find no relation between operating performance and employee held shares, suggesting no relation between employee commitment and firms' economic performance. Furthermore, we find no relation between operating performance and government held shares, indicating that government may not adequately protect shareholders' interests from managerial opportunism. Finally, we do find a positive relation between operating performance and portfolio held shares for code law maritime firms but not for common law maritime firms. Results are robust after adjusting for various firm and country risk characteristics. Overall, our results on the importance of the ownership structure are new to this setting and add to a large body of evidence linking ownership characteristics to corporate performance

The timing of new corporate debt issues and the risk-return tradeoff

The Modigliani–Miller theorem serves as the standard finance paradigm on corporate capital structure and managerial decision making. Implicitly, it is assumed that the market possesses full information about the firm. However, if firm managers have insider information, they may attempt to ‘signal’ changes in the firm’s financial structure and, in competitive equilibrium, shareholders will draw deductions from such signals. Empirical work shows that the value of underlying firms rises with leverage because investors expect such firms to implement positive NPV projects. We empirically examine this view using a sample of debt issue announcements by publicly traded firms listed on the London Stock Exchange. We argue that the timing of debt issues is fundamental in determining the relationship between leverage and risk-adjusted returns. We show that an announcing firm’s intrinsic value may not rise depending on when management publicly ‘signals’ changes in their firm’s capital structure. Specifically, we show that risk-adjusted returns rise positively for firms that make debt announcements during normal economic conditions while they tend to decline for firms making debt announcements during recessionary periods. During recessionary periods, market risk and loss aversion rise and investors focus less on the potential growth of debt announcing firms and focus more on potential losses instead. We conclude that the timing of new debt is of paramount importance and managers’ inability to prudently time such announcements can lead to exacerbated levels of systematic risk coupled with a significant erosion in shareholder wealth