A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts

Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection states using Markov jump processes (MJPs), but are computationally challenging as imperfect surveillance, lack of subject-level information, and temporal coarseness of the data obscure the true epidemic. Analytic integration over the latent epidemic process is impossible, and integration via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is cumbersome due to the dimensionality and discreteness of the latent state space. Simulation-based computational approaches can address the intractability of the MJP likelihood, but are numerically fragile and prohibitively expensive for complex models. A linear noise approximation (LNA) that approximates the MJP transition density with a Gaussian density has been explored for analyzing prevalence data in large-population settings, but requires modification for analyzing incidence counts without assuming that the data are normally distributed. We demonstrate how to reparameterize SEMs to appropriately analyze incidence data, and fold the LNA into a data augmentation MCMC framework that outperforms deterministic methods, statistically, and simulation-based methods, computationally. Our framework is computationally robust when the model dynamics are complex and applies to a broad class of SEMs. We evaluate our method in simulations that reflect Ebola, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, and apply our method to national surveillance counts from the 2013--2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

A Simple BATSE Measure of GRB Duty Cycle

We introduce a definition of gamma-ray burst (GRB) duty cycle that describes the GRB's efficiency as an emitter; it is the GRB's average flux relative to the peak flux. This GRB duty cycle is easily described in terms of measured BATSE parameters; it is essentially fluence divided by the quantity peak flux times duration. Since fluence and duration are two of the three defining characteristics of the GRB classes identified by statistical clustering techniques (the other is spectral hardness), duty cycle is a potentially valuable probe for studying properties of these classes.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, presented at the 5th Huntsville Gamma-Ray Burst Symposiu

An analytical and experimental study of injection-locked two-port oscillators

A Ku-band IMPATT oscillator with two distinct output power ports was injection-locked alternately at both ports. The transmission locking bandwidth was nearly the same for either port. The lower free running power port had a reflection locking bandwidth that was narrower than its transmission locking one. Just the opposite was found at the other port. A detailed analytical model for two-port injection-locked oscillators is presented, and its results agree quite well with the experiments. A critique of the literature on this topic is included to clear up misconceptions and errors. It is concluded that two-port injection-locked oscillators may prove useful in certain communication systems

The Age, Metallicity and Alpha-Element Abundance of Galactic Globular Clusters from Single Stellar Population Models

Establishing the reliability with which stellar population parameters can be measured is vital to extragalactic astronomy. Galactic GCs provide an excellent medium in which to test the consistency of Single Stellar Population (SSP) models as they should be our best analogue to a homogeneous (single) stellar population. Here we present age, metallicity and $\alpha$-element abundance measurements for 48 Galactic globular clusters (GCs) as determined from integrated spectra using Lick indices and SSP models from Thomas, Maraston & Korn, Lee & Worthey and Vazdekis et al. By comparing our new measurements to independent determinations we are able to assess the ability of these SSPs to derive consistent results -- a key requirement before application to heterogeneous stellar populations like galaxies. We find that metallicity determinations are extremely robust, showing good agreement for all models examined here, including a range of enhancement methods. Ages and $\alpha$-element abundances are accurate for a subset of our models, with the caveat that the range of these parameters in Galactic GCs is limited. We are able to show that the application of published Lick index response functions to models with fixed abundance ratios allows us to measure reasonable $\alpha$-element abundances from a variety of models. We also examine the age-metallicity and [$\alpha$/Fe]-metallicity relations predicted by SSP models, and characterise the possible effects of varied model horizontal branch morphology on our overall results.Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Efficient data augmentation for fitting stochastic epidemic models to prevalence data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogeneous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied, with minimal modifications, to a broad class of stochastic epidemic models. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school

Origin of Concentric Banding in the Spines of the Tropical Echinoid Heterocentrotus

The concentric bands or rings which are evident in transverse sections of echinoid spines have attracted the interest of biologists for more than a hundred years. First, the basic cause of ring formation remains obscure although at least two controversial hypotheses have been proposed, and elucidation of the ring-forming mechanism is important to a better understanding of the general processes involved in growth. Second, there is a practical aspect to the "growthring problem" because, if the number of rings in a spine is closely and directly related to the age of the animal, killing the urchin for age determination is obviated, thus facilitating ecological, population, and other practical studies in marine research

Expansion Potential for Irrigation within the Mississippi Delta Region

17.6 million acres, or 73 percent, of the Mississippi Delta Region is currently cropland and possesses the physical characteristics of slope, texture and soil type which are recommended for irrigation. Economic feasibility of expanding irrigation by flood, furrow and center pivot methods were examined under 24 scenarios representing two sets of crop prices, yield levels, production costs, opportunity costs and six crop rotations. Irrigation was economically feasible for 56 to 100 percent of the cropland across all scenarios. Approximately 88 percent of the cropland can be economically irrigated with flood or furrow in its present form, 8 percent yield highest net returns if furrow irrigated following land forming and 4 percent can be economically irrigated only with center pivot systems

What absent switch costs and mixing costs during bilingual language comprehension can tell us about language control.

Epub 2019 Mar 28.In the current study, we set out to investigate language control, which is the process that minimizes cross-language interference, during bilingual language comprehension. According to current theories of bilingual language comprehension, language-switch costs, which are a marker for reactive language control, should be observed. However, a closer look at the literature shows that this is not always the case. Furthermore, little to no evidence for language-mixing costs, which are a marker for proactive language control, has been observed in the bilingual language comprehension literature. This is in line with current theories of bilingual language comprehension, as they do not explicitly account for proactive language control. In the current study, we further investigated these two markers of language control and found no evidence for comprehension-based language-switch costs in six experiments, even though other types of switch costs were observed with the exact same setup (i.e., task-switch costs, stimulus modality-switch costs, and production-based language-switch costs). Furthermore, only one out of three experiments showed comprehension-based language-mixing costs, providing the first tentative evidence for proactive language control during bilingual language comprehension. The implications of the absence and occurrence of these costs are discussed in terms of processing speed and parallel language activation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved)This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 706128. This research was also supported by grants ANR-11-LABX-0036 (BLRI), ANR-16-CONV-0002 (ILCB), and ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02 from the French National Research Council (ANR)