Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts

Risk of unintentional injuries in children and adolescents with ADHD and the impact of ADHD medications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been related to increased rates of unintentional injuries. However, the magnitude of the effect and to which extent variables such as sex, age or comorbidity can influence this relationship is unknown. Additionally, and importantly, it is unclear if, and to which degree, ADHD medications can decrease the number of unintentional injuries. Due to the amount of economic and social resources invested in the treatment of injuries, filling these gaps in the literature is highly relevant from a public health standpoint. Here, we present a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the relationship between ADHD and unintentional injuries and assess the impact of pharmacological treatment for ADHD Methods and analysis We will combine results from 114 bibliographic databases for studies relating ADHD and risk of injuries. Bibliographic searches and data extraction will be carried out independently by two researchers. The studies’ risk of bias will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Articles reporting ORs or HRs of suffering an injury in ADHD compared with controls (or enough data to calculate them) will be combined using Robust Variance Estimation, a method that permits to include multiple non-independent outcomes in the analysis. All analyses will be carried out in Stata. Age, sex and comorbid conduct disorders will be considered as potential causes of variance and their effect analysed through meta-regression and subgroup analysis. Sensitivity analyses will exclude articles with longer follow-ups, non-stringent definitions of ADHD or controls and statistically uncontrolled/controlled outcomes. Studies implementing a self-controlled case series methodology to investigate if ADHD drugs reduce the risk of injuries will be combined with a generalised linear mixed model using the Poisson distribution and a log link function

Risk of unintentional injuries in children and adolescents with ADHD and the impact of ADHD medications: A systematic review and meta-analysis

A systematic review with meta-analyses was performed to: 1) quantify the association between ADHD and risk of unintentional physical injuries in children/adolescents (¿risk analysis¿); 2) assess the effect of ADHD medications on this risk (¿medication analysis¿). We searched 114 databases through June 2017. For the risk analysis, studies reporting sex-controlled odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) estimating the association between ADHD and injuries were combined. Pooled ORs (28 studies, 4,055,620 individuals without and 350,938 with ADHD) and HRs (4 studies, 901,891 individuals without and 20,363 with ADHD) were 1.53 (95% CI = 1.40,1.67) and 1.39 (95% CI = 1.06,1.83), respectively. For the medication analysis, we meta-analysed studies that avoided the confounding-by-indication bias [four studies with a self-controlled methodology and another comparing risk over time and groups (a ¿difference in differences¿ methodology)]. The pooled effect size was 0.879 (95% CI = 0.838,0.922) (13,254 individuals with ADHD). ADHD is significantly associated with an increased risk of unintentional injuries and ADHD medications have a protective effect, at least in the short term, as indicated by self-controlled studies

Risk of poisoning in children and adolescents with ADHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Poisoning, a subtype of physical injury, is an important hazard in children and youth. Individuals with ADHD may be at higher risk of poisoning. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify this risk. Furthermore, since physical injuries, likely share causal mechanisms with those of poisoning, we compared the relative risk of poisoning and injuries pooling studies reporting both. As per our pre-registered protocol (PROSPERO ID CRD42017079911), we searched 114 databases through November 2017. From a pool of 826 potentially relevant references, screened independently by two researchers, nine studies (84,756 individuals with and 1,398,946 without the disorder) were retained. We pooled hazard and odds ratios using Robust Variance Estimation, a meta-analytic method aimed to deal with non-independence of outcomes. We found that ADHD is associated with a significantly higher risk of poisoning (Relative Risk¿=¿3.14, 95% Confidence Interval¿=¿2.23 to 4.42). Results also indicated that the relative risk of poisoning is significantly higher than that of physical injuries when comparing individuals with and without ADHD (Beta coefficient¿=¿0.686, 95% Confidence Interval¿=¿0.166 to 1.206). These findings should inform clinical guidelines and public health programs aimed to reduce physical risks in children/adolescents with ADHD

Variability of coastal and ocean water temperature in the upper 700 m along the western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006

Temperature is observed to have different trends at coastal and ocean locations along the western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006, which corresponds to the last warming period in the area under study. The analysis was carried out by means of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Reanalysis data are available at monthly scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and a vertical resolution of 40 levels, which allows obtaining information beneath the sea surface. Only the first 21 vertical levels (from 5.0 m to 729.35 m) were considered here, since the most important changes in heat content observed for the world ocean during the last decades, correspond to the upper 700 m. Warming was observed to be considerably higher at ocean locations than at coastal ones. Ocean warming ranged from values on the order of 0.3 °C dec(-1) near surface to less than 0.1 °C dec(-1) at 500 m, while coastal warming showed values close to 0.2 °C dec(-1) near surface, decreasing rapidly below 0.1 °C dec(-1) for depths on the order of 50 m. The heat content anomaly for the upper 700 m, showed a sharp increase from coast (0.46 Wm(-2)) to ocean (1.59 Wm(-2)). The difference between coastal and ocean values was related to the presence of coastal upwelling, which partially inhibits the warming from surface of near shore water.publishe

7th Drug hypersensitivity meeting: part two

No abstract availabl

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. Methods: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015. Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years, 65 to 80 years, and = 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. Results: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 = 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients =80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%, 65 years; 20.5%, 65-79 years; 31.3%, =80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%, <65 years;30.1%, 65-79 years;34.7%, =80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%, =80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age = 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI = 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88), and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared, the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Conclusion: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age = 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI), and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery