Toward an improved representation of middle atmospheric dynamics thanks to the ARISE project

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions

Recent history, current status, conservation and management of native mammalian carnivore species in Great Britain

1. After historical declines in population sizes and ranges, we compare and contrast the recent history and contemporary variation in the status of Great Britain's eight native mammalian carnivore species from the 1960s to 2017. 2. Wildcat Felis silvestris conservation status is unfavourable and is masked by hybridisation with domestic cats Felis catus. Red foxes Vulpes vulpes remain widespread but are currently declining. European otter Lutra lutra, European pine marten Martes martes and European polecat Mustela putorius populations are characterised by rapid recovery. Otters have almost completely recolonised Great Britain, polecats have expanded their range throughout southern Britain from refugia in Wales and pine martens have expanded their range from the Scottish Highlands. European badgers Meles meles have generally increased in population density. Status assessments of stoats Mustela erminea and weasels Mustela nivalis are data‐deficient but available evidence suggests that stoats may have increased while weasels may have declined. 3. Anthropogenic processes influencing carnivore status include legal protections, habitat quality, reintroductions, predator control, pollutants, hybridisation and diseases and their associated control practices. Population effects of contaminants, such as anticoagulant rodenticides, remain poorly characterised. The widespread interface with domestic and feral cats makes the wildcat's situation precarious. Recent declines in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations are a concern, given that several carnivore species depend on them as food. 4. We conclude that, with the exception of the wildcat, the status of Great Britain's mammalian carnivores has markedly improved since the 1960s. Better understanding of the social aspects of interactions between humans and expanding predator populations is needed if conflict is to be avoided and long‐term co‐existence with people is to be possible

An Empirical Examination of Conflict- and Non-Conflict-Oriented Problem-Solving Technologies

Although there is an extensive body of literature dealing with development and application of different problem-solving technologies in strategic and operational decision-making our examination has revealed no empirical studies comparing conflict- and non-conflict-oriented problem-solving technologies. This paper presents results of an empirical investigation into the comparative effectiveness of two contrasting problem-solving technologies: Nominal Group Technique (NGT) and Dialectical Problem-Solving Technology (DPST)

Comparison of Problem-Solving Technologies: A Free Simulation Approach

"The purpose of this paper is to present results of a comparison of three problem-solving technologies utilized in the context of a business game. First this paper discusses some methological issues of existing business games and existing problem-solving technologies. Second, the paper introduces the methodology, design and hypotheses of the present experiment. Third, the results of an empirical investigation into comparative effectiveness of High Structure-Dialectical Problem-Solving Technology (DPST), Medium Structure- Devil’s Advocate Problem Solving Technology (DAPST) and Low Structure-Control Group (LSPST) are analyzed. Finally, the need for further theoretical and empirical research is emphasized.

The Impact of Decision Support Systems On The Effectiveness Of Small Group Decisions -Revisited

This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of the impact of Decision Support Systems on small group decision effectiveness. The study is conducted in the context of the Business Management Laboratory. Two production function modules from Wolfe's Business Management Laboratory Decision Support System (BMLDSS) were utilized to aid decision making by all treatment groups. Results indicate the use of these modules improved decisionmaking performance in the second year of play as measured by manufacturing costs and Earnings/CGS. Debriefing indicated that two control groups developed informal DSS outside of the laboratory setting. Reanalysis of the performance data with this fact in mind indicated treatment groups' performance was superior to control groups' only for Earnings/CGS in the second year. The results of a questionnaire administration dealing with the subjects' feelings about the DSS are also discussed

Simulation Gaming As an Experimental Context for the Study Of Multicriteria Decision Making

While theoretical development of discrete multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models has proceeded apace over the last fifteen years, there has been a disappointing lack of empirical testing and validation studies. A major reason for this phenomenon is the unavailability of common decision making environments to serve as a context for such studies. This paper proposes simulation gaining as an experimental context for the study of multicriteria decision making. To illustrate the use of simulation gaming for this purpose, results of a study of two integrated MCDM-Behavioral models of group decision making conducted in tile experimental context of the Business Management Laboratory are presented