Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses

Activated protein C prevents inflammation yet stimulates angiogenesis to promote cutaneous wound healing

Activated protein C (APC) is a serine protease that plays a central role in physiological anticoagulation, and has more recently been shown to be a potent anti-inflammatory mediator. Using cultured human cells, we show here that APC up-regulates the angiogenic promoters matrix metalloproteinase-2 in skin fibroblasts and umbilical vein endothelial cells, vascular endothelial growth factor in keratinocytes and fibroblasts, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 in fibroblasts. In the chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane assay, APC promoted the granulation/remodeling phases of wound healing by markedly stimulating angiogenesis as well as promoting reepithelialization. In a full-thickness rat skin-healing model, a single topical application of APC enhanced wound healing compared to saline control. APC-treated wounds had markedly more blood vessels on day 7 and a significantly lower infiltration of neutrophils at days 4 and 7. The broad spectrum matrix metallo-proteinas, GM6001, prevented the ability of APC to promote wound healing. In summary, our results show that APC promotes cutaneous wound healing via a complex mechanism involving stimulation of angiogenesis and inhibition of inflammation. These unique properties of APC make it an attractive therapeutic agent to promote the healing of chronic wounds. Copyright © 2005 by the Wound Healing Society