How Immunocontraception Can Contribute to Elephant Management in Small, Enclosed Reserves: Munyawana Population as a Case Study

Immunocontraception has been widely used as a management tool to reduce population growth in captive as well as wild populations of various fauna. We model the use of an individual-based rotational immunocontraception plan on a wild elephant, Loxodonta africana, population and quantify the social and reproductive advantages of this method of implementation using adaptive management. The use of immunocontraception on an individual, rotational basis stretches the inter-calving interval for each individual female elephant to a management-determined interval, preventing exposing females to unlimited long-term immunocontraception use (which may have as yet undocumented negative effects). Such rotational immunocontraception can effectively lower population growth rates, age the population, and alter the age structure. Furthermore, such structured intervention can simulate natural process such as predation or episodic catastrophic events (e.g., drought), which regulates calf recruitment within an abnormally structured population. A rotational immunocontraception plan is a feasible and useful elephant population management tool, especially in a small, enclosed conservation area. Such approaches should be considered for other long-lived, social species in enclosed areas where the long-term consequences of consistent contraception may be unknown

Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the first part of this study, an extensive literature survey led to the construction of a new version of the <it>Liverpool Malaria Model </it>(LMM). A new set of parameter settings was provided and a new development of the mathematical formulation of important processes related to the vector population was performed within the LMM. In this part of the study, so far undetermined model parameters are calibrated through the use of data from field studies. The latter are also used to validate the new LMM version, which is furthermore compared against the original LMM version.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For the calibration and validation of the LMM, numerous entomological and parasitological field observations were gathered for West Africa. Continuous and quality-controlled temperature and precipitation time series were constructed using intermittent raw data from 34 weather stations across West Africa. The meteorological time series served as the LMM data input. The skill of LMM simulations was tested for 830 different sets of parameter settings of the undetermined LMM parameters. The model version with the highest skill score in terms of entomological malaria variables was taken as the final setting of the new LMM version.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Validation of the new LMM version in West Africa revealed that the simulations compare well with entomological field observations. The new version reproduces realistic transmission rates and simulated malaria seasons are comparable to field observations. Overall the new model version performs much better than the original model. The new model version enables the detection of the epidemic malaria potential at fringes of endemic areas and, more importantly, it is now applicable to the vast area of malaria endemicity in the humid African tropics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A review of entomological and parasitological data from West Africa enabled the construction of a new LMM version. This model version represents a significant step forward in the modelling of a weather-driven malaria transmission cycle. The LMM is now more suitable for the use in malaria early warning systems as well as for malaria projections based on climate change scenarios, both in epidemic and endemic malaria areas.</p

Land clearing, climate variability, and water resources increase in semiarid southwest Niger: a review

The water table in southwestern Niger has been rising continuously for the past decades (4 m rise from 1963 to 2007), despite a ~23% deficit in monsoonal rainfall from 1970 to 1998. This paradoxical phenomenon has been linked with a change in land use from natural savannah to millet crops that have expanded in area sixfold since 1950 and have caused soil crusting on slopes that has, in turn, enhanced Hortonian runoff. Runoff concentrates in closed ponds and then recharges the aquifer; therefore, higher runoff increases aquifer recharge. At the local scale (2 km2), a physically based, distributed hydrological model showed that land clearing increased runoff threefold, whereas the rainfall deficit decreased runoff by a factor of 2. At a larger scale (500 km2, 1950–1992 period), historical aerial photographs showed a 2.5-fold increase in the density of gullies, in response to an 80% decrease in perennial vegetation. At the scale of the entire study area (5000 km2), analytical modeling of groundwater radioisotope data (3H and 14C) showed that the recharge rate prior to land clearing (1950s) was about 2 mm a−1; postclearing recharge, estimated from groundwater level fluctuations and constrained by subsurface geophysical surveys, was estimated to be 25 ± 7 mm a−1. This order of magnitude increase in groundwater fluxes has also impacted groundwater quality near ponds, as shown by a rising trend in groundwater nitrate concentrations of natural origin (75% of δ15N values in the range +4 to +8‰). In this well-documented region of semiarid Africa, the indirect impacts of land use change on water quantity and quality are much greater than the direct influence of climate variability