Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP

The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood, and uncertainty in climate model results persists, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We synthesize current challenges and emphasize opportunities for advancing our understanding of the interactions between atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate change, as well as for quantifying model diversity. Our perspective is based on expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – the Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), the Aerosol Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP), and the Radiative Forcing MIP (RFMIP). While there are many shared interests and specializations across the MIPs, they have their own scientific foci and specific approaches. The partial overlap between the MIPs proved useful for advancing the understanding of the perturbation–response paradigm through multi-model ensembles of Earth system models of varying complexity. We discuss the challenges of gaining insights from Earth system models that face computational and process representation limits and provide guidance from our lessons learned. Promising ideas to overcome some long-standing challenges in the near future are kilometer-scale experiments to better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it is possible and machine learning approaches where they are needed, e.g., for faster and better subgrid-scale parameterizations and pattern recognition in big data. New model constraints can arise from augmented observational products that leverage multiple datasets with machine learning approaches. Future MIPs can develop smart experiment protocols that strive towards an optimal trade-off between the resolution, complexity, and number of simulations and their length and, thereby, help to advance the understanding of climate change and its impacts

The relationship between seminal leukocytes, oxidative status in the ejaculate, and apoptotic markers in human spermatozoa

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between seminal leukocytes, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in the ejaculate, and markers of apoptosis in human spermatozoa. Semen samples were collected from 60 patients attending fertility clinics at the Reproductive Biology Unit at Tygerberg Academic Hospital and Vincent Pallotti Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa. The concentration of seminal leukocytes was determined and was correlated with ROS production in the ejaculate, the percentage of superoxide (·O2 )- and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)-positive spermatozoa, glutathione activation in the ejaculate, and with markers of apoptosis in spermatozoa, namely cysteine-dependent aspartate-directed proteases (caspase)-3/7 activation, mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm), and the percentage of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP-biotin nick end labeling (TUNEL)-positive sperm. Significant correlations with the concentration of seminal leukocytes were found for ROS production in the ejaculate, the percentage of ·O2 -positive spermatozoa, and caspase-3/7 activation in the ejaculate. Leukocytospermic samples showed significantly higher ROS production, percentage of ·O2 -positive sperm, GSH activation, and caspase-3/7 activation compared to non-leukocytospermic samples. The percentage of ·O2 -positive sperm was significantly correlated with sperm ΔΨm and caspase-3/7 activation in the ejaculate. Sperm ΔΨm and TUNEL-positive sperm did not correlate with seminal leukocyte concentration. Data demonstrate that high seminal leukocyte concentrations that leads to increased seminal ROS production, and is also associated with caspase activation in the male germ cell and increased mitochondrial ROS production. The latter could possibly be a result of disturbed ΔΨm. The activation of caspase-3/7 could then follow the increased intrinsic superoxide levels due to depleted intrinsic glutathione (GSH). These cellular events might not directly and immediately lead to DNA fragmentation as an endpoint of apoptosis because of topological hindrances.Web of Scienc

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 13 contemporary climate models that are participating in CMIP6 and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) from climate models stands at 1.97 (± 0.26) W m−2, comprised of 1.80 (± 0.11) W m−2 from CO2, 1.07 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.04 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.08 (± 0.14) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are one standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.17 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the traditional stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing, but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4 × CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with equilibrium climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing