Preparing the Next Generation of Sustainability Scientists

Graduate programs emerging in universities over recent decades support the advanced study of sustainability issues in complex socio-environmental systems. Constructing the problem-scope to address these issues requires graduate students to integrate across disciplines and synthesize the social and natural dimensions of sustainability. Graduate programs that are designed to foster inter- and transdisciplinary research acknowledge the importance of training students to use integrative research approaches. However, this training is not available in all graduate programs that support integrative research, often requiring students to seek external training opportunities. We present perspectives from a group of doctoral students with diverse disciplinary backgrounds conducting integrative research in universities across the United States who participated in a 10-day, National Science Foundation-funded integrative research training workshop to learn and develop socio-environmental research skills. Following the workshop, students conducted a collaborative autoethnographic study to share pre- and postworkshop research experiences and discuss ways to increase integrative research training opportunities. Results reveal that students, regardless of disciplinary background, face common barriers conducting integrative research that include: (1) lack of exposure to epistemological frameworks and team-science skills, (2) challenges to effectively include stakeholder perspectives in his/her research, and (3) variable levels of committee support to conduct integrative research. To overcome the identified barriers and advance integrative research, students recommend how training opportunities can be embedded within existing graduate programs. Students advocate that both internal and external training opportunities are necessary to support the next generation of sustainability scientists

'Pregnancy comes accidentally - like it did with me': reproductive decisions among women on ART and their partners in rural Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) restores health, fertility and sexual activity among HIV-infected adults, understanding how ART influences reproductive desires and decisions could inform interventions to reduce sexual and vertical HIV transmission risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a qualitative sub-study among a Ugandan cohort of 1,000 adults on ART with four purposively selected categories of participants: pregnant, not pregnant, delivered, and aborted. In-depth interviews examined relationships between HIV, ART and pregnancy, desire for children, perceived risks and benefits of pregnancy, decision-making regarding reproduction and family planning (FP) among 29 women and 16 male partners. Analysis focused on dominant explanations for emerging themes across and within participant groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among those who had conceived, most couples stated that their pregnancy was unintentional, and often occurred because they believed that they were infertile due to HIV. Perceived reasons for women not getting pregnant included: ill health (included HIV infection and ART), having enough children, financial constraints, fear of mother-to-child HIV transmission or transmission to partner, death of a child, and health education. Most women reported FP experiences with condoms and hormonal injections only. Men had limited FP information apart from condoms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Counselling at ART initiation may not be sufficient to enable women who do not desire children to adopt relevant family planning practices. On-going reproductive health education and FP services, with emphasis on the restoration of fertility after ART initiation, should be integrated into ART programs for men and women.</p

Identification and Evaluation of Epidemic Prediction and Forecasting Reporting Guidelines: A Systematic Review and a Call for Action

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. RESULTS: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health

Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines : a systematic review and a call for action

NGR reports funding by NIGMS grant R35GM119582. BMA is supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the Global Good Fund. SP and IMB were funded by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch (GEIS: P0116_19_WR_03.11).Introduction: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. Methods: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. Results: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. Conclusions: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Reproductive Intentions and Outcomes among Women on Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence the biological, social and behavioral determinants of pregnancy in HIV-infected women. However, there are limited longitudinal data on the reproductive intentions and outcomes among women on ART in Africa. Methodology /Principal Findings: Using a prospective cohort design, we analyzed trends in desire for children and predictors of pregnancy among a cohort of 733 HIV-infected women in rural Uganda who initiated ART between May 2003 and May 2004 and were followed up in their homes until June 2006. Women answered in-depth social and behavioral questionnaires administered every quarter in year 1 after initiating ART, and every 6 to 12 months thereafter. Use of family planning methods was assessed at 18 and 24 months after starting ART. We tested for non-constant pregnancy incidence by using a shape parameter test from the Weibull distribution. We modeled repeated measurements of all variables related to the women’s desire for children over time using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) extension to the logistic regression model. Risk factors for pregnancy were examined using Cox proportional hazards model. 711 women eligible for the study were followed-up for a median time of 2.4 years after starting ART. During this time, less than 7 % of women reported wanting more children at any time point yet 120 (16.9%) women experienced 140 pregnancies and pregnancy incidence increased from 3.46 per 100 women-years (WY) in the first quarter to 9.5 per 100 WY at 24 months (p,0.0001). This wa

COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND: Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status. FINDINGS: Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1. INTERPRETATION: Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK

The value of confirmatory testing in early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in South Africa: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: The specificity of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) used for early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV infection is <100%, leading some HIV-uninfected infants to be incorrectly identified as HIV-infected. The World Health Organization recommends that infants undergo a second NAAT to confirm any positive test result, but implementation is limited. Our objective was to determine the impact and cost-effectiveness of confirmatory HIV testing for EID programmes in South Africa. Method and findings Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)–Pediatric model, we simulated EID testing at age 6 weeks for HIV-exposed infants without and with confirmatory testing. We assumed a NAAT cost of US$25, NAAT specificity of 99.6$1,790/infant tested, compared to US$1,830/infant tested without confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing remained cost-saving unless NAAT cost exceeded US$400 or the HIV-uninfected status of infants incorrectly identified as infected was ascertained and ART stopped within 3 months of starting. Limitations include uncertainty in the data used in the model, which we examined with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We also excluded clinical harms to HIV-uninfected infants incorrectly treated with ART after false-positive diagnosis (e.g., medication toxicities); including these outcomes would further increase the value of confirmatory testing. Conclusions: Without confirmatory testing, in settings with MTCT rates similar to that of South Africa, more than 10% of infants who initiate ART may reflect false-positive diagnoses. Confirmatory testing prevents inappropriate HIV diagnosis, is cost-saving, and should be adopted in all EID programmes

The value of confirmatory testing in early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in South Africa: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: The specificity of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) used for early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV infection is <100%, leading some HIV-uninfected infants to be incorrectly identified as HIV-infected. The World Health Organization recommends that infants undergo a second NAAT to confirm any positive test result, but implementation is limited. Our objective was to determine the impact and cost-effectiveness of confirmatory HIV testing for EID programmes in South Africa. Method and findings Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)–Pediatric model, we simulated EID testing at age 6 weeks for HIV-exposed infants without and with confirmatory testing. We assumed a NAAT cost of US$25, NAAT specificity of 99.6$1,790/infant tested, compared to US$1,830/infant tested without confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing remained cost-saving unless NAAT cost exceeded US$400 or the HIV-uninfected status of infants incorrectly identified as infected was ascertained and ART stopped within 3 months of starting. Limitations include uncertainty in the data used in the model, which we examined with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We also excluded clinical harms to HIV-uninfected infants incorrectly treated with ART after false-positive diagnosis (e.g., medication toxicities); including these outcomes would further increase the value of confirmatory testing. Conclusions: Without confirmatory testing, in settings with MTCT rates similar to that of South Africa, more than 10% of infants who initiate ART may reflect false-positive diagnoses. Confirmatory testing prevents inappropriate HIV diagnosis, is cost-saving, and should be adopted in all EID programmes

Number of infants linked to ART after false-positive diagnosis, per 1,000 ART initiations, by assay specificity and MTCT risk.

<p>Multivariate sensitivity analysis varying specificity of the NAAT and infant HIV prevalence modelled by increasing MTCT risk. The vertical axis shows the number of infants with false-positive diagnosis initiating ART, per 1,000 ART initiations. Groups of coloured bars indicate 3 values for infant HIV prevalence at weaning (12 months of age): purple indicates a low MTCT risk scenario, with 12-month risk of 1.3%; green indicates the base-case value of 4.9%; and blue indicates a high MTCT risk scenario, with risk of 9.6%. Three values of NAAT specificity are shown within each MTCT risk scenario. For each combination of MTCT risk and NAAT specificity, bars indicate those who are truly HIV-uninfected (false-positive diagnosis). The left, dark-coloured bar in each pair reflects the outcome without confirmatory testing, and the right, light-coloured bar reflects the outcome with confirmatory testing. ART, antiretroviral therapy; EID, early infant diagnosis; MTCT, mother-to-child transmission; NAAT, nucleic acid amplification test.</p