A Bayesian approach towards facilitating climate change adaptation research on the South African agricultural sector

Evaluating the range of proposed adaptation measures to combat the sensitivity of agriculture to climate change effects involves evaluating complex interactions between human and natural systems. Integrated strategy-making and implementation in the agricultural sector to reduce the risks posed by climate change requires the consideration of multiple, interdisciplinary factors and the sensitivities of their inter-relationships. Lack of information on the sensitivity of agricultural activities to climate change in Africa hampers climate change adaptation research on the region. In water scarce South Africa, the growth of the agricultural sector is threatened by projected decreases in water availability due to climate change. This paper shows how Bayesian networks may be used to facilitate cross-disciplinary participation in elucidating these sensitivities. Bayesian networks provide a graphical framework for mixing quantitative and qualitative information and can be characterised using information associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. This enables a variety of domain experts to test key driver-response interactions through sensitivity analysis and enables visualisation of the complex inter-relationships between inter-disciplinary variables resulting from the impacts of climate change scenarios on South African agriculture. The ability to represent the sensitivities between key variables for which varying degrees of data-scarcity and uncertainty occur provides agricultural sector researchers with a facilitation tool that may helps visualise and formulate climate change mitigation strategies. The results presented here illustrates the extreme sensitivity of water-scarce South African agricultural sector to projected climate change impacts and provides a framework in which tradeoffs between activities can be preliminarily assessed in strategy-making for adaptation.Climate change adaptation, water utilization, Bayesian approach, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives

August 2013Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.Written by Chris Wray, Josephine Musango and Kavesha Damon (GCRO) Koech Cheruiyot (NRF:SARChI chair in Development Planning and Modelling at Wits

Using System Dynamics to Explore the Water Supply and Demand Dilemmas of a Small South African Municipality

This paper explores the challenges faced by small municipalities in providing water services in a developing world context of increasing urban demand. The paper uses a case study of the Sundays River Valley Municipality (SRVM) in South Africa. The municipality faces multiple dilemmas in reconciling its available water supply with growing demand for potable water in the primary urban settlement in the area, in a struggle that is typical of the broad category of South African municipalities to which the SRVM belongs. These dilemmas are explored using a system dynamics model, referred to as the ‘Kirkwood water demand system dynamics model’ (K-DEM). This paper specifically introduces the K-DEM structure,which is aimed at investigating the impacts of households progressively receiving full water and sanitation services; the use of rainwater harvesting as an alternative form of water supply; and the possible effect of a household-level water conservation / water demand management programme. Baseline results are discussed, and areas for future research identified. Paper presented at the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 21-24 July 2014, in Delft, the Netherlands.WordMac OS X 10.8.5 Quartz PDFContex

Urban Water Security Assessment Using an Integrated Metabolism Approach:Case Study of the National Capital Territory of Delhi in India

Water is a non substitutable resource and a social good, which governments must perforce provide to its citizens in the right quantity and quality. An integrated urban metabolism model is useful in understanding the status quo of an urban water and sanitation system. By defining and measuring the values of relevant hydrological performance indicators—deliverables of the model referred to—a thorough knowledge of the present performance and the gaps, which need to be plugged en route to a sustainable urban water infrastructure, can be obtained, as demonstrated in this paper. This then forms the bedrock for decision-making and policy formulation for change to be introduced top-down as well as advice, which would enable the much needed bottom-up support to policies. The authors have chosen Delhi as the case study city, but would like to point out that this application can be reproduced for any other town/city/region of the world. The water balance within the chosen system boundaries shows that the annual unutilized flows, amounting to 1443 million cubic meters, dominate the metabolic flows of water in Delhi, and the annual groundwater withdrawal, which exceeds 420 million cubic meters, is much greater than the recharge rate, resulting in a rapid depletion of the groundwater level. There is an urgent need thereby to improve the rate of infiltration of stormwater and reduce the rate of runoff by focusing on increasing the share of permeable surfaces in the city, as well as to consider the wastewater streams as potential sources of water, while not forgetting demand side of management measures, as the pressure on the urban water system in the city is likely to intensify with a combination of population growth, economic development, and climate change in the near future. The recommendations provided by the authors towards the end of the article, can, if suitable measures are undertaken and robust policies are implemented, result in Delhi’s enjoying a water surplus in the short term, and progressively attain complete sustainability with regard to the utilization of its water resources

The simultaneous introduction of the district health system and performance-based funding: the Burundi experience

Burundi recently introduced two fundamental reforms to its health system: a district health system (DHS) and performance-based financing (PBF) of the healthcare facilities. The authors of this article set out the salient points of a trial simultaneous implementation of DHS and PBF. The assessment refers to the six building blocks of health systems proposed by the WHO, and demonstrates that PBF can either have a leverage effect or hinder the following functional elements of the DHS: the group dynamics of the District Health Management Team (DHMT), the way the district hospital functions in relation to the primary health care level , the curative and preventive health services provided by health centers to provide health cover for a target population, the provision of essential medication by a fully-functional district pharmacy, the action-focused on the health management information system (HMIS) and funding that ensures fair provision and guaranteed resupply, supported by a transparent organization. The authors recommend that these aspects receive the attention they deserve as part of initiatives that combine both reforms, especially in the start-up stage. The health system regulator – the Ministry of Health – must remain vigilant to make any necessary adjustments and to avoid negative consequences.Le Burundi a introduit récemment deux réformes fondamentales dans son système de santé : la mise en place d’un système de santé de district (SSD) et le financement basé sur la performance (FBP) des structures sanitaires. Les auteurs de cet article relatent les points saillants d’une expérience de mise en œuvre simultanée  du SSD et du FBP sur le terrain L’appréciation est faite par rapport aux six piliers du système de santé tels que proposés par l’OMS, l’article montre que le FBP peut aussi bien exercer un effet de levier  qu’entraver les éléments de fonctionnalités suivants du SSD:  la dynamique du groupe de l’Equipe Cadre de District (ECD),  le fonctionnement de l’hôpital de district par rapport au premier niveau de soins, les soins curatifs et préventifs organisés par les centres de santé dans une optique de couverture sanitaire d’une population cible,  l’approvisionnement en médicaments essentiels par une pharmacie de district fonctionnelle,  le système d’information sanitaire orienté vers l’action et le financement permettant l’équité, garantissant le réapprovisionnement et soutenu par une  organisation transparente. Les auteurs recommandent que ces aspects reçoivent l’attention qu’ils méritent lors des interventions qui combinent les deux réformes plus particulièrement dès la phase de démarrage. Le régulateur du système de santé, c’est-à-dire le Ministère de la Santé, doit rester vigilant pour procéder aux ajustements et veiller à éviter tout dérapage.Burundi ha introducido recientemente dos reformas fundamentales en su sistema sanitario: la implementación de un sistema sanitario de distrito (SSD) y la financiación basada en los resultados (FBP) de las estructuras sanitarias. Los autores de este artículo relatan los puntos destacados de un experimento de implementación simultánea de SSD y de FBP en el terreno. La evaluación se realiza con respecto a los seis pilares del sistema sanitario que propone la OMS. El artículo muestra que la FBP puede ejercer tanto un efecto incentivador como obstaculizar las siguientes funcionalidades del SSD: la dinámica del grupo del Equipo de Gestión del Distrito (ECD), el funcionamiento del hospital de distrito con respecto al primer nivel de cuidado, los cuidados curativos y preventivos organizados por los centros de salud en un enfoque de cobertura sanitaria de una población diana, el aprovisionamiento de medicamentos esenciales por una farmacia de distrito funcional, el sistema de información sanitaria orientado a la acción y la financiación que permite la equidad, garantizando el reaprovisionamiento y sostenida por una organización transparente. Los autores recomiendan que estos aspectos reciban la atención que merecen durante intervenciones que combinen las dos reformas, más particularmente desde la fase de puesta en marcha. El regulador del sistema sanitario, es decir el Ministerio de Sanidad, debe permanecer atento para proceder a los ajustes y procurar evitar cualquier desliz

WATER RESOURCE INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLICATIONS OF A GREEN ECONOMY TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE OF SOUTH AFRICA: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

The Western Cape Province government in South Africa has established the transition to a green economy as a high priority. The sustainable use of water resources has been identified as a critical necessity for such a green economy transition. The research summarised in this paper conceptualised the factors that relate to water resources, and that influence the transition to a green economy in the Western Cape Province. Subsequently, a system dynamics model was developed to evaluate the impact of key strategic interventions of the green economy transition. The results from the model show that the Province could possibly experience extreme water shortages in the near future if a business-as-usual scenario continues. However, with sufficient investment and effective management, the water demand of the Province can be met

Formative Assessment as a Means of Improving Learner Achievement: Lessons from Selected Primary Schools of Lusaka, Zambia

Assessment is the systematic collection and analysis of information to improve student outcomes (Shute, 2008). Assessment take a variety of meanings within education. It refers to the process an institution uses to grade its students’ work. It is usually in form of some kind of standardised testing and is often compulsory. Many schools in Zambia carry out compulsory assessments usually monthly and at the end of the term as part of the processes for accountability. The reason for assessment either termly, weekly test or mock examination is to improve institutional practices. This study was aimed at analysing classroom-based formative assessment that may identify needs and in the process shape teaching. Formative assessment contributes to learning through providing feedback. The study reviewed three primary schools in Lusaka. Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were used. 90 Questionnaires were distributed to teachers, to accord them a chance to analyse their practices. In addition, in depth interviews were conducted with 12 teachers from each of the participating schools. Focus group discussions were conducted with learners. The findings demonstrated that in most cases where teachers used assessment results to improve teaching and learning, pupil performance greatly improved. However, in other cases, it was found that implementation of formative assessment was difficult due huge class size and also a lack of educational materials. It was recommended that funding be improved in schools to enhance implementation formative assessnment. In addition, there is need to reduce teacher pupil ratios in order to improve assessment processes

A roadmap framework for solar aided power generation in South Africa

Technology roadmaps are critical for decisions pertaining to technology development. They have been utilised in the renewable energy sector to assist in filtering alternative technology options in order to support energy policy formulation, energy security and energy independence, among others. However, solar aided power generation is a recent concept and no roadmap has been developed for the technology as yet. This paper thus reviewed the literature related to roadmapping with the aim of understanding the methods and tools that have been utilised in other settings. Informed by the literature, a conceptual framework was developed, which was further utilised for the initial analysis for developing a roadmap for solar aided power generation in South Africa. Generally, it would be beneficial for South Africa to integrate solar aided power generation within its current Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) or the National Treasury Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programme. However, it should be noted that this is only feasible in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, there is a need to support stand-alone solar thermal technologies