What Was Expected, Tomma and Sandy

Joan Murray is a longtime contributor to Ontario Review. Her most recent collection is Dancing on the Edge (Beacon, 2002). She is also the editor of the Poems to Live By anthologies from Beacon and the Pushcart Book of Poetry

Analysis of Legal Aid Society Survey

The Center for Applied Urban Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha (CAUR) was contacted in the summer of 1980 by the Legal Aid Society of Omaha about the possibilities of obtaining assistance with a research project. In an initial letter, the director of Le·gal Aid stated the purpose of the proposed project: Our goal in conducting the survey is to obtain as much information as possible to determine the most pressing problems facing poor people in our community

Impact of a Music Program on Students\u27 Standardized Test Scores

Administrators at the focus school had not determined if participation in a music program has influenced students\u27 academic achievement, thereby ushering doubt about the utility of this program. The purpose of this causal-comparative study was to determine the impact of the music program on students\u27 English language arts (ELA) and math Measure of Academic Progress (MAP) scores. The theoretical foundation for this study was Miendlarzweska and Trost\u27s model of musical training, which indicates the impact of musical training on academic, social, and cognitive outcomes and identifies factors that mediate that impact. Archival data were retrieved on 74 Grade 5-8 students who participated in the program during the 2012-2013 school year and who also participated during the 2011-2012 school year as Grade 4-7 students. Analysis of covariance indicated no significant effect on ELA or math MAP scores for music program participation. Implications for positive social change include providing initial research findings to the local site on the potential academic impact of this music program. Further research with recent data and larger sample sizes were recommended. Additional research at the local level may yield results that can help administrators better support higher levels of student success

Red Quasars and Quasar Evolution: the Case of BALQSO FIRST J155633.8+351758

We present the first near-IR spectroscopy of the z=1.5 radio-loud BALQSO FIRST J155633.8+351758. Both the Balmer decrement and the slope of the rest-frame UV-optical continuum independently suggest a modest amount of extinction along the line of sight to the BLR (E(B-V)~0.5 for SMC-type screen extinction at the QSO redshift). The implied gas column density along the line of sight is much less than is implied by the weak X-ray flux of the object, suggesting that either the BLR and BAL region have a low dust-to-gas ratio, or that the rest-frame optical light encounters significantly lower mean column density lines of sight than the X-ray emission. From the rest-frame UV-optical spectrum, we are able to constrain the stellar mass content of the system. Comparing the maximal stellar mass with the black hole mass estimated from the bolometric luminosity of the QSO, we find that the ratio of the black hole to stellar mass may be comparable to the Magorrian value, which would imply that the Magorrian relation is already in place at z=1.5. However, multiple factors favor a much larger black hole to stellar mass ratio. This would imply that if the Magorrian relation characterizes the late history of QSOs, and the situation observed for F1556+3517 is typical of the early evolutionary history of QSOs, central black hole masses develop more rapidly than bulge masses. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 23 pages, 4 embedded postscript figures; Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal, December 200

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry

Socio-ecological transition in a Mediterranean agroecosystem: What energy flows tell us about agricultural landscapes ruled by landlords, peasants and tourism (Mallorca, 1860-1956-2012)

Using several energy returns on investment indicators (multi-EROI), this article analyses the socioecological transition of an agroecosystem in the western Mediterranean on the island of Mallorca (Spain) over a period of 150 years which saw a change from traditional organic farming to a fossil fuel-based system of agriculture. This circular bioeconomic analysis evaluates the agroecosystem's capacity to produce goods by reproducing itself in 1860, 1956 and 2012. In 1860 land and livestock were mostly in the hands of a few landowners, who kept agroecosystems away from the full productive capacity of traditional organic farming so as to increase land rents by lowering wages. The bankruptcy of these large estates increased peasant access to land at the end of the nineteenth and the first third of the twentieth centuries. Peasant farms were mainly solar-based and combined polyculture with a large number of small flocks, thus creating complex and attractive Mediterranean biocultural landscapes with higher EROIs. By 1956, these had practically reached the limits of traditional organic farming and early became a residual activity within the tourism specialization of the economy. As everywhere, conventional farming reduced agrarian eco-efficiency through production increases achieved at the cost of greater dependence on external fossil fuel-based inputs, a loss of biophysical circularity and lower EROIs. In Mallorca, however, this took place at the same time as agriculture was subsumed by the tourist economy, leading to a more partial and less widespread adoption of Green Revolution techniques than in other parts of Spain. Although agroecosystem live funds were undermined and the reproduction of Mallorcan biocultural landscapes was placed at risk, an important heritage of biocultural peasant agriculture still survives as a resource for the future

Long-term labour market and economic consequences of school exclusions in England:Evidence from two counterfactual approaches

Background: Previous research suggests that school exclusion during childhood is a precursor to social exclusion in adulthood. Past literature on the consequences of school exclusion is, however, scarce and mainly focused on short-term outcomes such as educational attainment, delinquency, and mental health in early adolescence. Moreover, this evidence is based primarily on descriptive and correlational analysis, whereas robust causal evidence is required to best inform policy. Aims: We aimed to estimate the mid-to-long-term impact of school exclusion on labour market and economic outcomes. Sample: The sample included 6,632 young people who at the age of 25/26 in the year 2015 participated in the Next Steps survey of whom 86 were expelled from school and 711 were suspended between the ages of 13/14 and 16/17. Method: Using high quality existing longitudinal data, we utilized four approaches to evaluate the impact of school exclusion: logistic regression-adjustment models, propensity score matching, school fixed-effects analysis, and inverse propensity weighting. The latter two counterfactual approaches were used to estimate causal effects. Results: We found that school exclusion increased the risk of becoming NEET at the age of 19/20, and then remaining economically inactive at the age of 25/26, as well as experiencing higher unemployment risk and earning lower wages also at the age of 25/26. Conclusion: School exclusion has pervasive negative effects into adulthood. Policy interventions should focus on both prevention and mitigating its negative effects. Interventions aimed at re-integrating excluded individuals into education or vocational training could be key in reducing the risk of poor socio-economic outcomes and social exclusion

The impact of school exclusion in childhood on health and well-being outcomes in adulthood:Estimating causal effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting

BackgroundPrevious evidence has suggested a strong association between school exclusion and health outcomes. However, as health risks are themselves related to the risk of experiencing a school exclusion, it has been challenging to determine the extent to which school exclusion impacts later health outcomes, as opposed to reflecting a marker for pre-existing risks.AimThe aim of the current study was to address this challenge in estimating the medium-to-long-term impact of school exclusion of health and well-being outcomes.MethodsTo this end, we used an inverse propensity weighting approach in the Next Steps data set (N = 6534, from wave 1, 2014, to wave 8, 2015).ResultsWe found that after weighting for propensity of treatment scores estimated based on a wide range of factors, including previous health indicators, there was a significant effect of school exclusion on a wide range of health and well-being outcomes.DiscussionThese results provide some of the most robust evidence to date that school exclusion harms long-term health outcomes.ConclusionThe findings suggest that policies should aim to reduce exclusion and ensure access to preventative health support for those who experience a school exclusion