Link-level resilience analysis for real-world networks using crowd-sourced data

A number of recent disasters have challenged the functionality of transport networks. The significance of road transport infrastructure to the functioning means that systems need to be able to operate under undesirable conditions, and quickly return to acceptable levels of service. The objective of the study is to analyze real-world networks speed fluctuation and evaluate the quantitative relationship between resilience and graph-based metrics, and link attributes using crowd-sourced data. We measure resilience in terms of the rate (vehicle speed) at which the road network recovers from a disruptive event and define five metrics to quantify network resilience. We analyze more than 500 links affected by disruptions in multiple cities with more than millions of crowd-sourced data. Using changes in link speed before, during, and after the disruption, the resilience metrics are applied to three case studies that are categorized as no-notice disruption, notice disruption, and disruption caused by continuous events. The results indicate that link graph-based metrics and attributes have a high impact on network resilience. However, the relevance of different metrics and attributes to the link resilience is different. Population density, predictability of disasters, and human factors have a significant impact on the reduction and recovery phases

Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Transcriptional and Linkage Analyses Identify Loci that Mediate the Differential Macrophage Response to Inflammatory Stimuli and Infection

Macrophages display flexible activation states that range between pro-inflammatory (classical activation) and anti-inflammatory (alternative activation). These macrophage polarization states contribute to a variety of organismal phenotypes such as tissue remodeling and susceptibility to infectious and inflammatory diseases. Several macrophage- or immune-related genes have been shown to modulate infectious and inflammatory disease pathogenesis. However, the potential role that differences in macrophage activation phenotypes play in modulating differences in susceptibility to infectious and inflammatory disease is just emerging. We integrated transcriptional profiling and linkage analyses to determine the genetic basis for the differential murine macrophage response to inflammatory stimuli and to infection with the obligate intracellular parasite Toxoplasma gondii. We show that specific transcriptional programs, defined by distinct genomic loci, modulate macrophage activation phenotypes. In addition, we show that the difference between AJ and C57BL/6J macrophages in controlling Toxoplasma growth after stimulation with interferon gamma and tumor necrosis factor alpha mapped to chromosome 3, proximal to the Guanylate binding protein (Gbp) locus that is known to modulate the murine macrophage response to Toxoplasma. Using an shRNA-knockdown strategy, we show that the transcript levels of an RNA helicase, Ddx1, regulates strain differences in the amount of nitric oxide produced by macrophage after stimulation with interferon gamma and tumor necrosis factor. Our results provide a template for discovering candidate genes that modulate macrophage-mediated complex traits

Parallels between Pathogens and Gluten Peptides in Celiac Sprue

Pathogens are exogenous agents capable of causing disease in susceptible organisms. In celiac sprue, a disease triggered by partially hydrolyzed gluten peptides in the small intestine, the offending immunotoxins cannot replicate, but otherwise have many hallmarks of classical pathogens. First, dietary gluten and its peptide metabolites are ubiquitous components of the modern diet, yet only a small, genetically susceptible fraction of the human population contracts celiac sprue. Second, immunotoxic gluten peptides have certain unusual structural features that allow them to survive the harsh proteolytic conditions of the gastrointestinal tract and thereby interact extensively with the mucosal lining of the small intestine. Third, they invade across epithelial barriers intact to access the underlying gut-associated lymphoid tissue. Fourth, they possess recognition sequences for selective modification by an endogenous enzyme, transglutaminase 2, allowing for in situ activation to a more immunotoxic form via host subversion. Fifth, they precipitate a T cell–mediated immune reaction comprising both innate and adaptive responses that causes chronic inflammation of the small intestine. Sixth, complete elimination of immunotoxic gluten peptides from the celiac diet results in remission, whereas reintroduction of gluten in the diet causes relapse. Therefore, in analogy with antibiotics, orally administered proteases that reduce the host's exposure to the immunotoxin by accelerating gluten peptide destruction have considerable therapeutic potential. Last but not least, notwithstanding the power of in vitro methods to reconstitute the essence of the immune response to gluten in a celiac patient, animal models for the disease, while elusive, are likely to yield fundamentally new systems-level insights