Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience

Cohort profile : early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database

Funding: The original EAVE project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (project number 13/34/14). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council [MR/R008345/1] and supported by the Scottish Government. This work is supported by BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004]. BREATHE is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK.PostprintPeer reviewe

BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination uptake, safety, effectiveness and waning in children and young people aged 12–17 years in Scotland

This study is part of the EAVE II project. EAVE II is funded by the MRC (MC_PC_19075) with the support of BREATHE—The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through the Health Data Research UK. This research is part of the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20058). This work was also supported by The Alan Turing Institute via ‘Towards Turing 2.0’ EPSRC Grant Funding. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland, the Scottish Government Director-General Health and Social Care and the University of Edinburgh. The original EAVE project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (11/46/23). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care, or the UK government. We thank Dave Kelly from Albasoft (Inverness, UK) for his support with making primary care data available, and Wendy Inglis-Humphrey, Vicky Hammersley, and Laura Brook (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK) for their support with project management and administration.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis : a pooled self-controlled case series study of 11.6 million individuals in England, Scotland, and Wales

Funding: This research is part of the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20029, AS). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (https://mrc.ukri.org/) (UKRI MC_PC 19075, AS) with the support of BREATHE, The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004, AS), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. This work was supported by the Con-COV team funded by the Medical Research Council (grant number: MR/V028367/1, RL). This work was supported by Health Data Research UK, which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd (HDR-9006, RL) funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust. This work was supported by the ADR Wales programme of work (https://www.adruk.org/). ADR Wales is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1, RL). SVK acknowledges funding from NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02, SVK), the MRC (MC_UU_00022/2, SVK), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17, SVK).Background : Several countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales. Methods and findings : We created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates. Conclusions : In this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk–benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021

Funding Information: This project received funding from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) under the contract ECD.11486. Funding Information: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.Introduction: In July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe. Aim: Using a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection. Methods: Individuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination. Results: Overall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms. Conclusions: VE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.publishersversionpublishe

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021

I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care study team (in addition to authors above): Nick Andrews, Jamie Lopez Bernal, Heather Whitaker, Caroline Guerrisi, Titouan Launay, Shirley Masse, Sylvie van der Werf, Vincent Enouf, John Cuddihy, Adele McKenna, Michael Joyce, Cillian de Gascun, Joanne Moran, Ana Miqueleiz, Ana Navascués, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Carmen Ezpeleta, Paula López Moreno, Javier Gorricho, Eva Ardanaz, Fernando Baigorria, Aurelio Barricarte, Enrique de la Cruz, Nerea Egüés, Manuel García Cenoz, Marcela Guevara, Conchi Moreno-Iribas, Carmen Sayón, Verónica Gomez, Baltazar Nunes, Rita Roquete, Adriana Silva, Aryse Melo, Inês Costa, Nuno Verdasca, Patrícia Conde, Diogo FP Marques, Anna Molesworth, Leanne Quinn, Miranda Leyton, Selin Campbell, Janine Thoulass, Jim McMenamin, Ana Martínez Mateo, Luca Basile, Daniel Castrillejo, Carmen Quiñones Rubio, Concepción Delgado-Sanz, Jesús Oliva.The I-MOVE-COVID-19 network collates epidemiological and clinical information on patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virological characterisation in 11 European countries [1]. One component of I-MOVE-COVID-19 is the multicentre vaccine effectiveness (VE) study at primary care/outpatient level in nine European study sites in eight countries. We measured overall and product-specific COVID-19 VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among those aged 65 years and older. We also measured VE by time since vaccination.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The emergence and diversification of a zoonotic pathogen from within the microbiota of intensively farmed pigs

The expansion and intensification of livestock production is predicted to promote the emergence of pathogens. As pathogens sometimes jump between species, this can affect the health of humans as well as livestock. Here, we investigate how livestock microbiota can act as a source of these emerging pathogens through analysis of Streptococcus suis, a ubiquitous component of the respiratory microbiota of pigs that is also a major cause of disease on pig farms and an important zoonotic pathogen. Combining molecular dating, phylogeography, and comparative genomic analyses of a large collection of isolates, we find that several pathogenic lineages of S. suis emerged in the 19th and 20th centuries, during an early period of growth in pig farming. These lineages have since spread between countries and continents, mirroring trade in live pigs. They are distinguished by the presence of three genomic islands with putative roles in metabolism and cell adhesion, and an ongoing reduction in genome size, which may reflect their recent shift to a more pathogenic ecology. Reconstructions of the evolutionary histories of these islands reveal constraints on pathogen emergence that could inform control strategies, with pathogenic lineages consistently emerging from one subpopulation of S. suis and acquiring genes through horizontal transfer from other pathogenic lineages. These results shed light on the capacity of the microbiota to rapidly evolve to exploit changes in their host population and suggest that the impact of changes in farming on the pathogenicity and zoonotic potential of S. suis is yet to be fully realized.</p