A model based approach to understanding the phase locking of ENSO and the annual cycle

This unpublished manuscript is the result of a term project conducted by Kristopher B. Karnauskas and Lisa N. Murphy while in the graduate program of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Maryland–College Park. Original date: December 12, 2005.The present study is an investigation into the physical underpinnings of the phase locking between ENSO and the annual cycle. An appreciable amount of work has been aimed at this and similar questions, particularly observational studies resulting from the TOGA decade. In contrast, relatively little modeling efforts have been directed at understanding why peak conditions of most El Nino events in recent decades have occurred in boreal winter. Current knowledge of the global effects of El Nino remains based on observations of El Nino impacting the Earth during boreal winter. Using an OGCM of the tropical Pacific Ocean and various in situ data, it is found that the first order explanation of the seasonal timing of ENSO events, simply that westerly wind bursts occur during that season, is far short of complete. Rather, the state of the ocean is itself better situated thermodynamically to respond to the wind anomalies that are believed to play an important role in the genesis of El Nino events

Phenotypic and Genotypic Characterization of Escherichia coli Isolated from Untreated Surface Waters

A common member of the intestinal microbiota in humans and animals is Escherichia coli. Based on the presence of virulence factors, E. coli can be potentially pathogenic. The focus of this study was to isolate E. coli from untreated surface waters (37 sites) in Illinois and Missouri and determine phenotypic and genotypic diversity among isolates. Water samples positive for fecal coliforms based on the Colisure® test were streaked directly onto Eosin Methylene Blue (EMB) agar (37°C) or transferred to EC broth (44.5°C). EC broth cultures producing gas were then streaked onto EMB agar. Forty-five isolates were identified as E. coli using API 20E and Enterotube II identification systems, and some phenotypic variation was observed in metabolism and fermentation. Antibiotic susceptibility of each isolate was also determined using the Kirby-Bauer Method. Differential responses to 10 antimicrobial agents were seen with 7, 16, 2, and 9 of the isolates resistant to ampicillin, cephalothin, tetracycline, and triple sulfonamide, respectively. All of the isolates were susceptible or intermediate to amoxicillin, ciprofloxacin, polymyxin B, gentamicin, imipenem, and nalidixic acid. Genotypic variation was assessed through multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction for four virulence genes (stx1 and stx2 [shiga toxin], eaeA [intimin]; and hlyA [enterohemolysin]) and one housekeeping gene (uidA [-D-glucuronidase]). Genotypic variation was observed with two of the isolates possessing the virulence gene (eaeA) for intimin. These findings increase our understanding of the diversity of E. coli in the environment which will ultimately help in the assessment of this organism and its role in public health

Influence of C-5 substituted cytosine and related nucleoside analogs on the formation of benzo[a]pyrene diol epoxide-dG adducts at CG base pairs of DNA

Endogenous 5-methylcytosine (MeC) residues are found at all CG dinucleotides of the p53 tumor suppressor gene, including the mutational ‘hotspots' for smoking induced lung cancer. MeC enhances the reactivity of its base paired guanine towards carcinogenic diolepoxide metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) present in cigarette smoke. In the present study, the structural basis for these effects was investigated using a series of unnatural nucleoside analogs and a representative PAH diolepoxide, benzo[a]pyrene diolepoxide (BPDE). Synthetic DNA duplexes derived from a frequently mutated region of the p53 gene (5′-CCCGGCACCC GC[15N3,13C1-G]TCCGCG-3′, + strand) were prepared containing [15N3, 13C1]-guanine opposite unsubstituted cytosine, MeC, abasic site, or unnatural nucleobase analogs. Following BPDE treatment and hydrolysis of the modified DNA to 2′-deoxynucleosides, N2-BPDE-dG adducts formed at the [15N3, 13C1]-labeled guanine and elsewhere in the sequence were quantified by mass spectrometry. We found that C-5 alkylcytosines and related structural analogs specifically enhance the reactivity of the base paired guanine towards BPDE and modify the diastereomeric composition of N2-BPDE-dG adducts. Fluorescence and molecular docking studies revealed that 5-alkylcytosines and unnatural nucleobase analogs with extended aromatic systems facilitate the formation of intercalative BPDE-DNA complexes, placing BPDE in a favorable orientation for nucleophilic attack by the N2 position of guanin

Developmental regulation of mitochondrial apoptosis by c-Myc governs age- and tissue-specific sensitivity to cancer therapeutics

It is not understood why healthy tissues can exhibit varying levels of sensitivity to the same toxic stimuli. Using BH3 profiling, we find that mitochondria of many adult somatic tissues, including brain, heart, and kidneys, are profoundly refractory to pro-apoptotic signaling, leading to cellular resistance to cytotoxic chemotherapies and ionizing radiation. In contrast, mitochondria from these tissues in young mice and humans are primed for apoptosis, predisposing them to undergo cell death in response to genotoxic damage. While expression of the apoptotic protein machinery is nearly absent by adulthood, in young tissues its expression is driven by c-Myc, linking developmental growth to cell death. These differences may explain why pediatric cancer patients have a higher risk of developing treatment-associated toxicities

The Neuropathology of Fatal Cerebral Malaria in Malawian Children

We examined the brains of 50 Malawian children who satisfied the clinical definition of cerebral malaria (CM) during life; 37 children had sequestration of infected red blood cells (iRBCs) and no other cause of death, and 13 had a nonmalarial cause of death with no cerebral sequestration. For comparison, 18 patients with coma and no parasitemia were included. We subdivided the 37 CM cases into two groups based on the cerebral microvasculature pathology: iRBC sequestration only (CM1) or sequestration with intravascular and perivascular pathology (CM2). We characterized and quantified the axonal and myelin damage, blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption, and cellular immune responses and correlated these changes with iRBC sequestration and microvascular pathology. Axonal and myelin damage was associated with ring hemorrhages and vascular thrombosis in the cerebral and cerebellar white matter and brainstem of the CM2 cases. Diffuse axonal and myelin damage were present in CM1 and CM2 cases in areas of prominent iRBC sequestration. Disruption of the BBB was associated with ring hemorrhages and vascular thrombosis in CM2 cases and with sequestration in both CM1 and CM2 groups. Monocytes with phagocytosed hemozoin accumulated within microvessels containing iRBCs in CM2 cases but were not present in the adjacent neuropil. These findings are consistent with a link between iRBC sequestration and intravascular and perivascular pathology in fatal pediatric CM, resulting in myelin damage, axonal injury, and breakdown of the BBB

Disease-Related Cardiac Troponins Alter Thin Filament Ca2+ Association and Dissociation Rates

The contractile response of the heart can be altered by disease-related protein modifications to numerous contractile proteins. By utilizing an IAANS labeled fluorescent troponin C, , we examined the effects of ten disease-related troponin modifications on the Ca2+ binding properties of the troponin complex and the reconstituted thin filament. The selected modifications are associated with a broad range of cardiac diseases: three subtypes of familial cardiomyopathies (dilated, hypertrophic and restrictive) and ischemia-reperfusion injury. Consistent with previous studies, the majority of the protein modifications had no effect on the Ca2+ binding properties of the isolated troponin complex. However, when incorporated into the thin filament, dilated cardiomyopathy mutations desensitized (up to 3.3-fold), while hypertrophic and restrictive cardiomyopathy mutations, and ischemia-induced truncation of troponin I, sensitized the thin filament to Ca2+ (up to 6.3-fold). Kinetically, the dilated cardiomyopathy mutations increased the rate of Ca2+ dissociation from the thin filament (up to 2.5-fold), while the hypertrophic and restrictive cardiomyopathy mutations, and the ischemia-induced truncation of troponin I decreased the rate (up to 2-fold). The protein modifications also increased (up to 5.4-fold) or decreased (up to 2.5-fold) the apparent rate of Ca2+ association to the thin filament. Thus, the disease-related protein modifications alter Ca2+ binding by influencing both the association and dissociation rates of thin filament Ca2+ exchange. These alterations in Ca2+ exchange kinetics influenced the response of the thin filament to artificial Ca2+ transients generated in a stopped-flow apparatus. Troponin C may act as a hub, sensing physiological and pathological stimuli to modulate the Ca2+-binding properties of the thin filament and influence the contractile performance of the heart

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure