Linking resilience and robustness and uncovering their trade-offs in coupled infrastructure systems

Robustness and resilience are concepts in systems thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Most studies have either focused on qualitative approaches to discuss their connections or considered only one of them under particular classes of disturbances. In this study, we present an analytical framework to address the linkage between robustness and resilience more systematically. Our analysis is based on a stylized dynamical model that operationalizes a widely used conceptual framework for social-ecological systems. The model enables us to rigorously delineate the boundaries of conditions under which the coupled system can be sustained in a long run, define robustness and resilience related to these boundaries, and consequently investigate their connections. The results reveal the trade-offs between robustness and resilience. They also show how the nature of such trade-offs varies with the choice of certain policies (e.g., taxation and investment in public infrastructure), internal stresses, and uncertainty in social-ecological settings.</p

Interbasin Water Transfer, Riverine Connectivity, and Spatial Controls on Fish Biodiversity

BACKGROUND: Large-scale inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are commonly proposed as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. These problems are likely to intensify under future population growth and climate change scenarios. Scarce data on the distribution of freshwater fishes frequently limits the ability to assess the potential implications of an IBWT project on freshwater fish communities. Because connectivity in habitat networks is expected to be critical to species' biogeography, consideration of changes in the relative isolation of riverine networks may provide a strategy for controlling impacts of IBWTs on freshwater fish communities. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using empirical data on the current patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity for rivers of peninsular India, we show here how the spatial changes alone under an archetypal IBWT project will (1) reduce freshwater fish biodiversity system-wide, (2) alter patterns of local species richness, (3) expand distributions of widespread species throughout peninsular rivers, and (4) decrease community richness by increasing inter-basin similarity (a mechanism for the observed decrease in biodiversity). Given the complexity of the IBWT, many paths to partial or full completion of the project are possible. We evaluate two strategies for step-wise implementation of the 11 canals, based on economic or ecological considerations. We find that for each step in the project, the impacts on freshwater fish communities are sensitive to which canal is added to the network. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Importantly, ecological impacts can be reduced by associating the sequence in which canals are added to characteristics of the links, except for the case when all 11 canals are implemented simultaneously (at which point the sequence of canal addition is inconsequential). By identifying the fundamental relationship between the geometry of riverine networks and freshwater fish biodiversity, our results will aid in assessing impacts of IBWT projects and balancing ecosystem and societal demands for freshwater, even in cases where biodiversity data are limited

Spatial effects on species persistence and implications for biodiversity

Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions and yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales of space, time and organizational complexity. Species-area relationships and species-abundance distributions are examples of emerging patterns irrespective of the details of the underlying ecosystem functions. Here we present empirical and theoretical evidence for a new macroecological pattern related to the distributions of local species persistence times, defined as the timespans between local colonizations and extinctions in a given geographic region. Empirical distributions pertaining to two different taxa, breeding birds and herbaceous plants, analyzed in a new framework that accounts for the finiteness of the observational period, exhibit power-law scaling limited by a cut-off determined by the rate of emergence of new species. In spite of the differences between taxa and spatial scales of analysis, the scaling exponents are statistically indistinguishable from each other and significantly different from those predicted by existing models. We theoretically investigate how the scaling features depend on the structure of the spatial interaction network and show that the empirical scaling exponents are reproduced once a two-dimensional isotropic texture is used, regardless of the details of the ecological interactions. The framework developed here also allows to link the cut-off timescale with the spatial scale of analysis, and the persistence-time distribution to the species-area relationship. We conclude that the inherent coherence obtained between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns points at a seemingly general feature of the dynamical evolution of ecosystems.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures. Supplementary materials avaliable on http://www.pnas.org/content/108/11/434

Protracted speciation revitalizes the neutral theory of biodiversity.

Understanding the maintenance and origin of biodiversity is a formidable task, yet many ubiquitous ecological patterns are predicted by a surprisingly simple and widely studied neutral model that ignores functional differences between species. However, this model assumes that new species arise instantaneously as singletons and consequently makes unrealistic predictions about species lifetimes, speciation rates and number of rare species. Here, we resolve these anomalies - without compromising any of the original models existing achievements and retaining computational and analytical tractability - by modelling speciation as a gradual, protracted, process rather than an instantaneous event. Our model also makes new predictions about the diversity of incipient species and rare species in the metacommunity. We show that it is both necessary and straightforward to incorporate protracted speciation in future studies of neutral models, and argue that non-neutral models should also model speciation as a gradual process rather than an instantaneous one

Network isolation and local diversity in neutral metacommunities

Biologists seek an understanding of the biological and environmental factors determining local community diversity. Recent advances in metacommunity ecology, and neutral theory in particular, highlight the importance of dispersal processes interacting with the spatial structure of a landscape for generating spatial patterns and maintaining biodiversity. The relative spatial isolation of a community is traditionally thought to have a large influence on local diversity. However, isolation remains an elusive concept to quantify, particularly in metacommunities with complex spatial structure. We represent the metacommunity as a network of local communities, and use network centrality measures to quantify the isolation of a local community. Using spatially explicit neutral theory, we examine how node position predicts variation in alpha diversity across a metacommunity. We find that diversity increases with node centrality in the network, but only when centrality is measured on a given scale in the network that widens with increasing dispersal rates and narrows with increasing evolutionary rates. More generally, complex biodiversity patterns form only when the underlying geography has structure on this critical scale. This provides a framework for understanding the influence of spatial geographic structure on global biodiversity patterns.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79225/1/j.1600-0706.2010.18272.x.pd

On Capturing Human Agency and Methodological Interdisciplinarity in socio-hydrology Research

Socio-hydrology has expanded and been effective in exposing the hydrological community to ideas and approaches from other scientific disciplines, and social sciences in particular. Yet it still has much to explore regarding how to capture human agency and how to combine different methods and disciplinary views from both the hydrological and the social sciences to develop knowledge. A useful starting ground is noting that the complexity of human–water relations is due to interactions not only across spatial and temporal scales but also across different organizational levels of social systems. This calls for consideration of another analytical scale, the human organizational scale, and interdisciplinarity in study methods. Based on the papers published in this journal’s Special Issue Advancing Socio-hydrology over 2019–2022, this paper illuminates how the understanding of coupled human–water systems can be strengthened by capturing the multi-level nature of human decision making and by applying an interdisciplinary multi-method approach

The effect of spatial configuration of habitat capacity on β diversity

Patterns of β diversity are commonly used to infer underlying ecological processes. In this study, we examined the effect of spatial configuration of habitat capacity on different metrics of β diversity, i.e., β diversity measured as turnover and as variation. For β diversity as turnover, a monotonic species spatial turnover pattern is typically considered as a benchmark for species distributions driven only by dispersal process. Deviations from a monotonic curve are attributed to local environmental filtering (i.e., the same environmental factors affecting different species differently). However, we found non-monotonicity in species spatial turnover in models without environmental filtering effect. This non-monotonicity was caused by variation in α diversity, introduced by spatial configuration of habitat capacity. After applying a recent null-model approach—designed to tease out the effect of variation in α diversity—species spatial turnover remained non-monotonic. This non-monotonicity makes it problematic to use species spatial turnover to infer the underlying processes for species distribution, i.e., whether it is driven by environmental filtering or dispersal processes. Spatial configuration of habitat capacity also influences landscape connectivity. Small-habitat capacity sites may constrain movements of organisms (i.e., dispersal) between sites supporting high capacity habitats. We showed that in a landscape where small-habitat capacity sites were located in positions important for dispersal (e.g., in the center as opposed to on the edge of a landscape) has a higher spatial variation of species composition, hence, higher β diversity. Ecologists who use different measures of β diversity should be aware of these effects introduced by spatial configuration of habitat capacity

Maximum entropy model for business cycle synchronization

The global economy is a complex dynamical system, whose cyclical fluctuations can mainly be characterized by simultaneous recessions or expansions of major economies. Thus, the researches on the synchronization phenomenon are key to understanding and controlling the dynamics of the global economy. Based on a pairwise maximum entropy model, we analyze the business cycle synchronization of the G7 economic system. We obtain a pairwise-interaction network, which exhibits certain clustering structure and accounts for 45% of the entire structure of the interactions within the G7 system. We also find that the pairwise interactions become increasingly inadequate in capturing the synchronization as the size of economic system grows. Thus, higher-order interactions must be taken into account when investigating behaviors of large economic systems