Backcasting and forecasting biological invasions of inland lakes

Human introduction of nonindigenous species constitutes a serious threat to many ecosystems, particularly lakes. Recent attempts to predict invasions have focused on the supply of propagules of nonindigenous species to recipient ecosystems from source populations. Here we develop a spatially explicit “gravity” model to test this concept for Bythotrephes longimanus, a crustacean waterflea from Eurasia that is rapidly invading lakes in Ontario, Canada. The gravity model predicted spread of Bythotrephes based upon seven identified risk factors (e.g., use of contaminated fishing or boat anchor line) that may allow dispersal of either live individuals or their resting eggs from invaded to noninvaded lakes, as well as based on the spatial arrangement of invaded and noninvaded lakes in Ontario. Discriminant analysis of lake gravity scores successfully identified invasion status for 74% of 170 inland lakes. A retrospective analysis of 31 invaded lakes revealed that the order in which lakes were invaded was directly related to the magnitude of vector inflows from invaded sources. Analysis of the dominant vector inflow to each invaded lake revealed a “stepping stone” pattern in which at least five lakes were sequentially invaded from the source population in Lake Huron. One invaded lake (Muskoka) apparently served as an invasion “hub,” resulting in up to 18 additional direct and 17 indirect invasions. Species spread occurred via a combination of dominant, local diffusion (median distance 12.5 km) and rare, long-distance (\u3e100 km) dispersal. Eleven of 131 lakes that were not invaded in 2000 were reported invaded in 2001. Gravity scores of these lakes were significantly higher than those of other noninvaded systems, indicating that susceptibility to invasion can be related to the magnitude of vector inflows. A GIS model based on gravity scores indicated that distribution of Bythotrephes is expected to expand to eastern and northwestern Ontario, although most new invasions are expected to occur in the central region of the province. Our results indicate that quantitative analysis of human dispersal vectors provides a robust starting point with which to assess vulnerability of discrete ecosystems to invasion. Management efforts focused on reducing the number and magnitude of human-mediated dispersal vectors may reduce the rate of invasion of new ecosystems

Michigan Infrared Combiner (MIRC): commissioning results at the CHARA Array

The Michigan Infrared Combiner (MIRC) has been designed for two primary goals: 1) imaging with all six CHARA telescopes simultaneously in the near-infrared, 2) direct detection of "hot Jupiter" exoplanets using precision closure phases. In September 2005, MIRC was commissioned on-sky at the CHARA Array on Mt. Wilson, CA, successfully combining light from 4 telescopes simultaneously. After a brief overview of MIRC features and design philosophy, we provide detailed description of key components and present results of laboratory tests. Lastly, we present first results from the commissioning run, focusing on engineering performance. We also present remarkable on-sky closure phase results from the first night of recorded data with the best-ever demonstrated closure phase stability and precision (ΔΦ = 0.03 degrees)

Erratum: “stellar diameters and temperatures. II. main-sequence K- and M-stars” (2012, ApJ, 757, 112)

Published versio

Design of a decision support tool for visualising E. coli risks on agricultural land using a stakeholder-driven approach

Enabling knowledge exchange between scientists and decision-makers is becoming increasingly necessary to promote the development of effective decision-support tools (DSTs) for environmental management. Participation of stakeholders in the design process beyond a basic level of consultation is essential for promoting trust in modelled outputs and accelerating eventual uptake of resulting tools and models by end-user communities. This study outlines the development of a DST to visualise and communicate the spatial and temporal patterns ofE. coli(a faecal indicator organism) on agricultural land, as a first step in managing microbial pollution risks to the wider environment. A participatory approach was used to engage regulators, catchment managers, environmental scientists, farmers and farm advisors, researchers in geospatial technologies and water industry staff in the co-design of a novel, user-friendly and accessible DST for guiding on-farm microbial risk assessment. Recommendations for maximising the benefits of a participatory process to DST design are discussed with reference to a series of opportunities and limitations identified by our stakeholder cohort during the development of the Visualising Pathogen & Environmental Risk (ViPER) DST. The resulting toolkit provides environmental managers and farm advisors with one of the first freely-available DSTs for visualising patterns ofE. coliinputs to pasture in space and time, and begins to address the lack of advisory tools currently available for informing decision-making with respect to managing microbial risks in agricultural systems

FOREVER Future Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicles on European Roads Final technical summary report

The FOREVER (Future OpeRational impacts of Electric Vehicles on national European Roads) project was commissioned, as part of the CEDR Transnational Road Research Programme Call 2012 on Noise, to provide information to NRAs with respect to this issue. The project was developed with three key objectives: - To identify the noise emission levels from electric and hybrid vehicles. This has been achieved through practical measurements of noise from electric and hybrid cars, vans and trucks. The information has been used to develop correction factors to allow such vehicles to be included within state-of-the-art noise prediction models and to investigate subjective responses to these vehicles when part of traffic on NRA roads. - To identify the noise emission of tyres used on electric and hybrid vehicles. This has been achieved through practical measurements of noise for different types of tyres, with the aim of identifying whether specific tyres are/can be used for electric vehicles. - To assess the potential future noise impacts of electric and hybrid vehicles. A state-of-the-art noise prediction model has been used, with data from the practical trials, to assess the noise impacts close to the road for a range of different road type/traffic speed/traffic composition scenarios

Early stage anal margin cancer: towards evidence-based management.

Anal squamous cell carcinoma is an uncommon Human Papilloma Virus (HPV)‐related malignancy, the incidence of which has increased two‐ to four‐fold over the past three decades. Results from the first three phase III trials, performed in the 1990s (the largest being the ACT I trial in the UK), established concurrent mitomycin C (MMC), 5‐fluorouracil chemotherapy and radiotherapy (CRT) as the main primary treatment. Three subsequent trials (including ACT II in the UK, performed between 1998 and 2008, demonstrated evidence of no benefit from the use of additional chemotherapy before or after CRT, or concurrent cisplatin

The Canadian Society of Nephrology Methods in Developing and Adapting Clinical Practice Guidelines: A Review

Introduction: The Canadian Society of Nephrology (CSN) was established to promote the highest quality of care for patients with renal diseases and to encourage research related to the kidney and its disorders. The CSN Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG) Committee develops guidelines with clear recommendations to influence physicians' practice and improve the health of patients with kidney disease in Canada. Review: In this review we describe the CSN process in prioritizing CPGs topics. We document the CSN experience using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. We then detail the CSN process in developing de novo CPGs and in adapting existing CPGs and developing accompanying commentaries. We also discuss challenges faced during this process and suggest solutions. Furthermore, we summarize the CSN effort in disseminating and implementing their guidelines. Additionally, we describe recent development and partnerships that allow evaluation of the effect of the CSN guidelines and commentaries. Conclusion: The CSN follows a comprehensive process in identifying priority areas to be addressed in CPGs. In 2010, the CSN adopted GRADE, which enhanced the rigor and transparency of guideline development. This process focuses on systematically identifying best available evidence and carefully assessing its quality, balancing benefits and harms, considering patients' and societies' values and preferences, and when possible considering resource implications. Recent partnership allows wider dissemination and implementation among end users and evaluation of the effects of CPG and commentaries on the health of Canadians

The Canadian Society of Nephrology methods in developing and adapting clinical practice guidelines: a review

Abstract Introduction The Canadian Society of Nephrology (CSN) was established to promote the highest quality of care for patients with renal diseases and to encourage research related to the kidney and its disorders. The CSN Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG) Committee develops guidelines with clear recommendations to influence physicians’ practice and improve the health of patients with kidney disease in Canada. Review In this review we describe the CSN process in prioritizing CPGs topics. We document the CSN experience using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. We then detail the CSN process in developing de novo CPGs and in adapting existing CPGs and developing accompanying commentaries. We also discuss challenges faced during this process and suggest solutions. Furthermore, we summarize the CSN effort in disseminating and implementing their guidelines. Additionally, we describe recent development and partnerships that allow evaluation of the effect of the CSN guidelines and commentaries. Conclusion The CSN follows a comprehensive process in identifying priority areas to be addressed in CPGs. In 2010, the CSN adopted GRADE, which enhanced the rigor and transparency of guideline development. This process focuses on systematically identifying best available evidence and carefully assessing its quality, balancing benefits and harms, considering patients’ and societies’ values and preferences, and when possible considering resource implications. Recent partnership allows wider dissemination and implementation among end users and evaluation of the effects of CPG and commentaries on the health of Canadians