25 research outputs found

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

    GWAS meta-analysis of over 29,000 people with epilepsy identifies 26 risk loci and subtype-specific genetic architecture

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    Epilepsy is a highly heritable disorder affecting over 50 million people worldwide, of which about one-third are resistant to current treatments. Here we report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study including 29,944 cases, stratified into three broad categories and seven subtypes of epilepsy, and 52,538 controls. We identify 26 genome-wide significant loci, 19 of which are specific to genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE). We implicate 29 likely causal genes underlying these 26 loci. SNP-based heritability analyses show that common variants explain between 39.6% and 90% of genetic risk for GGE and its subtypes. Subtype analysis revealed markedly different genetic architectures between focal and generalized epilepsies. Gene-set analyses of GGE signals implicate synaptic processes in both excitatory and inhibitory neurons in the brain. Prioritized candidate genes overlap with monogenic epilepsy genes and with targets of current antiseizure medications. Finally, we leverage our results to identify alternate drugs with predicted efficacy if repurposed for epilepsy treatment

    Genome-wide identification and phenotypic characterization of seizure-associated copy number variations in 741,075 individuals

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    Copy number variants (CNV) are established risk factors for neurodevelopmental disorders with seizures or epilepsy. With the hypothesis that seizure disorders share genetic risk factors, we pooled CNV data from 10,590 individuals with seizure disorders, 16,109 individuals with clinically validated epilepsy, and 492,324 population controls and identified 25 genome-wide significant loci, 22 of which are novel for seizure disorders, such as deletions at 1p36.33, 1q44, 2p21-p16.3, 3q29, 8p23.3-p23.2, 9p24.3, 10q26.3, 15q11.2, 15q12-q13.1, 16p12.2, 17q21.31, duplications at 2q13, 9q34.3, 16p13.3, 17q12, 19p13.3, 20q13.33, and reciprocal CNVs at 16p11.2, and 22q11.21. Using genetic data from additional 248,751 individuals with 23 neuropsychiatric phenotypes, we explored the pleiotropy of these 25 loci. Finally, in a subset of individuals with epilepsy and detailed clinical data available, we performed phenome-wide association analyses between individual CNVs and clinical annotations categorized through the Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO). For six CNVs, we identified 19 significant associations with specific HPO terms and generated, for all CNVs, phenotype signatures across 17 clinical categories relevant for epileptologists. This is the most comprehensive investigation of CNVs in epilepsy and related seizure disorders, with potential implications for clinical practice

    Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

    Utilità della PET/CT con [18F]-Florbetaben nella diagnosi di amiloidosi cardiaca da catene leggere delle immunoglobuline (AL)

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    Background Amyloidoses are a group of systemic disorders characterized by extracellular deposition of amyloid insoluble fibrils, deriving from proteins encoded by mutated genes or from the misfolding of a normal protein. Cardiac involvement in amyloidosis (CA) is a major determinant of clinical presentation and may be present in primary immunoglobulin light-chain-derived amyloidosis (AL) and transthyretin-related amyloidosis (ATTR), either due to misfolded wild-type TTR or to mutated TTR. AL-CA is related to a clonal plasma cell disorder, it has the worse prognosis and its diagnosis is often delayed. The presentation of AL-CA and ATTR-CA is very similar; 99mTc-diphosphonates scintigraphy provides a non-invasive confirmation of ATTR in selected cases, whereas it is not useful for the diagnosis of AL, which currently relies on the histological demonstration of amyloid fibrils, and requiring invasive maneuvers, such as endomyocardial biopsy. Some PET radio-pharmaceuticals for the detection of beta-amyloid deposits within the brain have shown to be able to detect cardiac amyloid deposits. Methods Twenty patients with a biopsy-proven diagnosis of CA (10 AL and 10 ATTR) and ten patients with initial clinical suspicion of CA and then diagnosed with non-CA conditions, were prospectively enrolled and underwent PET/CT with [18F]-Florbetaben. A dynamic cardiac scan was performed in list-mode for 60 minutes, preceded by a low-dose CT performed throught the heart for attenuation correction. A static cardiac scan (delayed-static) was performed 110 minutes after the radio-pharmaceutical injection. Static cardiac scans were dichotomically (positive or negative) evaluated by two readers blinded to the patient diagnosis. Raw data of the cardiac dynamic scans were exported to be analyzed by the kinetic tool (PKIN) on PMOD software. SUVmean and molecular volume (MV) were calculated within each VOI (region of interest). [18F]-Florbetaben cardiac time/activity curve and plasma time-activity curve were obtained using dynamic reconstructions and by manually drawing, respectively, a myocardial VOI in a transaxial slice, and a circular VOI of one centimeter within the left atrial cavity, in the same slice. Three whole-heart static images were reconstructed from the dynamic list-mode acquisition between: 5 and 15 minutes (early-static), 30 and 40 minutes (intermediate-static), 50 and 60 minutes (late-static). Whole-heart SUVmean, plasma SUVmean (background) and heart-to background ratios, were calculated on early, intermediate, late and delayed scans. The concordance among the two different interpretations was performed using Kappa statistics and standard error; differences among groups were tested by Kruskal-Wallis H test or by Chi-square test. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS. Results SUVmean values evaluated in the late-static scans were significantly different: greater in AL than in ATTR patients (p<0.001) and non-CA patients (p<0.001), and similar between ATTR and non-CA patients (p=0.222). Similar results were obtained at delayed-static acquisitions. A similar pattern was observed for H/background ratio; the MV calculated at 15, 40, 60 and 110 minutes demonstrated a progressive decline in ATTR and in non-CA patients, while it remained stable in AL patients. Conclusions The delayed uptake of [18F]-Florbetaben can discriminate cardiac involvement in AL patients, thus [18F]-Florbetaben PET/CT may represent a non-invasive tool for the diagnosis of AL cardiac amyloidosis

    Development of Innovative Structured Catalysts for the Catalytic Decomposition of N<sub>2</sub>O at Low Temperatures

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    Nitrous oxide (N2O), produced from several human activities, is considered a greenhouse gas with significant environmental impacts. The most promising abatement technology consists of the catalytic decomposition of N2O into nitrogen and oxygen. Many recently published papers dealing with N2O catalytic decomposition over Ni-substituted Co3O4 are related to the treatment of N2O concentrations less than 2 vol% in the feed stream. The present work is focused on developing catalysts active in the presence of a gaseous stream richer in N2O, up to 20 vol%, both as powder and in structured configurations suitable for industrial application. With this aim, different nickel-cobalt mixed oxides (NixCo1−xCo2O4) were prepared, characterized, and tested. Subsequently, since alumina-based slurries assure successful deposition of the catalytic species on the structured carrier, a screening was performed on three nickel-cobalt-alumina mixed oxides. As the latter samples turned out to be excellent catalysts for the N2O decomposition reaction, the final catalytic formulation was transferred to a silicon carbide monolith. The structured catalyst led to the following very promising results: total N2O conversion and selectivity towards N2 and O2 were reached at 510 °C by feeding 20 vol% of N2O. It represents an important achievement in the view of developing a more concretely applicable catalytic system for industrial processes

    Development of Innovative Structured Catalysts for the Catalytic Decomposition of N2O at Low Temperatures

    No full text
    Nitrous oxide (N2O), produced from several human activities, is considered a greenhouse gas with significant environmental impacts. The most promising abatement technology consists of the catalytic decomposition of N2O into nitrogen and oxygen. Many recently published papers dealing with N2O catalytic decomposition over Ni-substituted Co3O4 are related to the treatment of N2O concentrations less than 2 vol% in the feed stream. The present work is focused on developing catalysts active in the presence of a gaseous stream richer in N2O, up to 20 vol%, both as powder and in structured configurations suitable for industrial application. With this aim, different nickel-cobalt mixed oxides (NixCo1&minus;xCo2O4) were prepared, characterized, and tested. Subsequently, since alumina-based slurries assure successful deposition of the catalytic species on the structured carrier, a screening was performed on three nickel-cobalt-alumina mixed oxides. As the latter samples turned out to be excellent catalysts for the N2O decomposition reaction, the final catalytic formulation was transferred to a silicon carbide monolith. The structured catalyst led to the following very promising results: total N2O conversion and selectivity towards N2 and O2 were reached at 510 &deg;C by feeding 20 vol% of N2O. It represents an important achievement in the view of developing a more concretely applicable catalytic system for industrial processes

    FLUORESCENT IN SITU HYBRIDIZATION (FISH) ON PERIPHERAL BLOOD AND BONE MARROW SMARS: 120 MINUTES FOR DETECTION OF PML/RARa FUSION GENE

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    Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorder characterized by a chromosomal translocation involving the retinoic acid receptor-a gene on chromosome 17 (RARA). In 95% of cases of APL, RARA gene is involved in a balanced reciprocal translocation with the promyelocytic leukemia gene (PML) on chromosome 15, a translocation denoted as t(15;17)(q22;q12). The long-term outlook is now favorable for the majority of APL patients, when treatment is instituted promptly, due to the availability of therapies such as all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) with anthracycline-based chemotherapy (idarubicin) and arsenic trioxide (ATO). Therefore, rapid diagnosis of APL contributes to a highly effective therapy. The conventional cytogenetic analysis is an excellent method for detecting the t(15;17)(q22;q12) in APL but it is subject to limitations. Since only dividing cells can be analyzed, sometimes there is no useful results for some patients, because of poor chromosome morphology and/or an insufficient amounts of assessable metaphases; furthermore the conventional chromosome analysis is labour-intensive and time consuming. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) overcomes some of these limitations and enables the detection of chromosomal rearrangements even on interphase cells, avoiding the requirement of metaphase obtention. Typically, the technique involves multiple step of sample preparation and hybridization of the sample and the probe so taking about 24 hours to analyze the data. Given the need for a rapid diagnosis in patients with APL, we investigated the usefulness and the accuracy of FISH, performed with a commercial probe, to identify the PML-RAR fusion gene, using a quick method applied on peripheral blood and bone marrow smears. Using this 120 minutes lasting procedure, we obtained bright, distinct, compact and easily evaluable hybridization signals with low background and we were able to clearly and unambiguously detect the fusion gene PML/ RARa in 90% of the cases, due to the variable quality of the material available. This study suggests that FISH performed on peripheral blood and bone marrow smears is a reliable method for the rapid detection of PML/RARa rearrangement
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