Adaptation to Climate Change: Land Use and Livestock Management Change in the U.S.

Replaced with revised version of paper 01/26/11Climate Change, Stocking Rate, Land Use, Livestock Management, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE RISK OF AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS AND ASSOCIATED ECONOMIC LOSS

This paper examines the effect that climate has on Avian Influenza outbreak probability. The statistical analysis shows across a broad region the probability of an outbreak declines by 0.22% when the temperature rises 1 Celsius degree and increases by 0.34% when precipitation increases by 1millimeter. These results indicate that the realized climate change of the last 20 years not only has been a factor behind recent HPAI outbreaks, but that climate change is likely to play an even greater role in the future. The statistical results indicate that overall, the risk of an AI outbreak has been increased by 51% under past climate change and 3-4% under future climate change. An economic evaluation shows the increased probability of outbreaks has caused damages of about $107 million in China and$29 million in the United States due to past climate change. In the year of 2011-2030, for countries with a high proportion of chicken production, economic loss could reach $105-$146 million in China and $12-$18 million in the United Sates.Climate change, Avian Influenza outbreaks, GDP loss, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Market Volatility and Momentum

This paper provides further evidence to support behavioral explanation of the momentum profit. We use VIX index as an approximate of market participants’ degree of fear, which is contrary to overconfidence level and explore the relation between momentum return and VIX index. We find strong negative correlation between them. VIX index is still statistically significant even after we control the cumulative market return used in previous study. The results are consistent with the behavioral explanation of momentum return

Does Negative Information Always Hurt Meat Demand? An Examination of Avian Influenza Information Impacts on U.S.

Consumers’ consumption patterns could be affected by food safety information, however, it is more important to consider where the food safety issue occurs. If the food safety issue happens in other countries, in other words, it outbreaks out of the target market, negative information may be beneficial; in contrast, if the food safety issue occurs within the market, results may consistent with previous studies. Based on this assumption, this paper reinvestigates the impacts of AI media coverage and BSE cases on the demand of meat in U.S. market. Estimated results provide supports for our assumption, i.e., AI information has positive effect on poultry and turkey demands in short term, and BSE affect beef demand negatively

Adaptation to Climate Change: Land Use and Livestock Management Change in the U.S.

This paper examines possible expected climate adaptations in a U.S. land use and livestock context. By using a Fractional Multinomial Logit model, we find that climate variables are affecting the allocation of land use by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. Our projections indicate that more cropping land would be altered to livestock land under climate change. In addition, cattle stocking rate could increase by the end of this century along with more pasture land or less cattle inventory because of higher temperature

Avian Influenza outbreaks and poultry production mitigation strategies in the U.S.

In this paper, two AI mitigation strategies are examined, quarantine and vaccination. Meanwhile, associated welfare changes are evaluated by using FASOM. Results found that changes of total national welfare of U.S are insignificant with or without vaccination. Once comes to livestock producers, impacts become significant although magnitudes are small. For example, under 20% demand shocks, vaccination strategy dominates no vaccination at the production, market and national level. However, vaccination has no advantage when there is no demand shifts

Avian Influenza outbreaks and poultry production mitigation strategies in the U.S.

In this paper, two AI mitigation strategies are examined, quarantine and vaccination. Meanwhile, associated welfare changes are evaluated by using FASOM. Results found that changes of total national welfare of U.S are insignificant with or without vaccination. Once comes to livestock producers, impacts become significant although magnitudes are small. For example, under 20% demand shocks, vaccination strategy dominates no vaccination at the production, market and national level. However, vaccination has no advantage when there is no demand shifts.AI outbreak, mitigation strategies, vaccination, demand shift, FASOM, welfare, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, Q1,