Food supply chain consequences of new responses to livestock epidemics

This article studies supply chain consequences from applying the new-more socially acceptable -strategy of emergency vaccination instead of the large-scale killing of healthy animals for controlling livestock epidemics. We consider an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in a densely populated livestock area of the Netherlands. From an epidemiological perspective, simulation results show that emergency vaccination significantly reduces the size of an epidemic, both in terms of the length of an outbreak and in the number of animals killed. However, in a worst-case situation, not destroying the vaccinated animals after the end of the epidemic leads to additional consequential losses for food supply chains involved of about Euro 200 million. A business case illustrates that the exact size of these losses depends on specific supply volumes and marketing strategies. Calculations provide a basis for addressing cost sharing issues and loss reducing opportunities of new responses to livestock epidemics.livestock epidemics, financial impact, consumer acceptance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Review on Dog Rabies Vaccination Coverage in Africa: A Question of Dog Accessibility or Cost Recovery?

Rabies is one of the most fatal diseases in both humans and animals. A bite by a rabid dog is the main cause of human rabies in Africa. Parenteral mass dog vaccination is the most cost-effective tool to prevent rabies in humans. Our main objective was to review research articles on the parenteral dog rabies vaccination coverage in Africa. We aimed to review published research articles on percentage of dogs owned and percentage of dogs vaccinated against rabies, and on the relation between vaccination coverage and cost recovery.We followed the standard procedures of a systematic literature review resulting in a final review of 16 scientific articles. Our review results indicate that only a small percentage of African dogs is ownerless. Puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion of the African dog population. There are considerably more male dogs than female dogs present within the dog population. The dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage following a “free of charge” vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to World Health Organization recommended threshold coverage rate (70%) compared to the coverage rate achieved in “owner-charged” dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%). In conclusion, most dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for vaccination once the necessary financial arrangements have been made

Associations between dairy farm performance indicators and culling rates under policy-driven herd size constraints

Introduction: This article aimed to study cross-sectional associations between the performance of dairy farms and their corresponding culling proportions under the herd size constraint as imposed in 2018 by the new phosphate regulation in the Netherlands. Methods: To this end, production data from 10,540 Dutch dairy farms were analyzed to capture the inflow and outflow of both primiparous and multiparous cows. Farm performance was measured by 10 indicators structured in four areas of longevity, production, reproduction, and udder health. Farm culling proportions were represented by the overall culling (OC) and the number of culled primiparous cows in relation to (i) the total number of producing cows (PC), (ii) the number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and (iii) the number of culled producing cows (POC). Spearman's rank correlation and weighted logistic regression were adopted to study associations. Results: In 2018, on average, 28% of producing cows were culled (OC). The number of primiparous cows culled represented 4.5% of the total number of producing cows (PC) and the mean proportion of culled primiparous cows was 18.8% of the total number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and, of the total number of producing culled cows, 15% were primiparous cows (POC). However, the variance around the mean, and among individual farms, was high (SD 4–15% for all four culling proportions). Results from rank correlation showed very low-rank conformity (<12%) between the areas of production, reproduction, and udder health to the culling proportions. Results from logistic regression showed that higher farm levels of production and higher percentages of cows with poor udder health were associated with more overall culling but with less primiparous culling. For reproduction indicators, the associations were similar for overall and primiparous culling. However, except for the average age of culled animals, the odds ratios for indicators were close to 1 (range: 0.92–1.07 and 0.68–1.07 for OC and PPC, respectively), indicating only weak associations to culling proportions. Discussion: In conclusion, although the introduction of phosphate regulation resulted in an increased outflow of cattle, corresponding culling proportions were not associated with the level of farm performance measured in terms of production, reproduction, or udder health

Implementing an Advanced Laparoscopic Procedure by Monitoring with a Visiting Surgeon

Study Objective: To investigate the feasibility of safely implementing a total laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) in established gynecologists' practices with on-site coaching and monitoring of the learning curve by an experienced visiting surgeon. Design: Multicenter prospective feasibility and implementation study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). Setting: Eleven general gynecologists in 8 hospitals (1 university hospital and 7 regional hospitals) participated. Patients: Laparoscopic hysterectomy was performed in 83 patients during the learning curve, and in 83 patients after the learning curve. Interventions: During the learning curve, an experienced visiting laparoscopist was available for coaching during each LH. A competence score was marked on an Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) form. Complications were recorded intraoperatively and postoperatively for 6 weeks after surgery in all patients. Measurements and Main Results: Nine of 11 gynecologists reached the competence score of at least 28 points during the study, from January 2005 to January 2007. A major complication occurred in 3 of 83 LH procedures (4%) performed during the learning curve, and in 5 of 83 LH procedures (6%) performed after the learning curve (p = .72). Conclusion: The concept of a visiting surgeon for on-site coaching and monitoring of established gynecologists during the learning curve of an advanced laparoscopic procedure using Objectively Structured Assessment of Technical Skills is feasible. According to the observed complication rate during and after the learning curve, on-site coaching is a useful tool when implementing a new laparoscopic technique in established gynecologists' practices. Journal of Minimally Invasive Gynecology (2010) 17, 771-778 (C) 2010 AAGL. All rights reserved

Cost-benefit analysis of foot and mouth disease control in Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurs endemically in Ethiopia. Quantitative insights on its national economic impact and on the costs and benefits of control options are, however, lacking to support decision making in its control. The objectives of this study were, therefore, to estimate the annual costs of FMD in cattle production systems of Ethiopia, and to conduct an ex ante cost-benefit analysis of potential control alternatives.<br/><br/>The annual costs of FMD were assessed based on production losses, export losses and control costs. The total annual costs of FMD under the current status quo of no official control program were estimated at 1354 (90% CR: 864–2042) million birr. The major cost (94%) was due to production losses. The costs and benefits of three potential control strategies: 1) ring vaccination (reactive vaccination around outbreak area supported by animal movement restrictions, 2) targeted vaccination (annual preventive vaccination in high risk areas plus ring vaccination in the rest of the country), and 3) preventive mass vaccination (annual preventive vaccination of the whole national cattle population) were compared with the baseline scenario of no official control program. Experts were elicited to estimate the influence of each of the control strategies on outbreak incidence and number of cases per outbreak. Based on these estimates, the incidence of the disease was simulated stochastically for 10 years. Preventive mass vaccination was epidemiologically the most efficient control strategy by reducing the national outbreak incidence below 5% with a median time interval of 3 years, followed by targeted vaccination strategy with a corresponding median time interval of 5 years. On average, all evaluated control strategies resulted in positive net present values. The ranges in the net present values were, however, very wide, including negative values. The targeted vaccination strategy was the most economic strategy with a median benefit cost ratio of 4.29 (90%CR: 0.29–9.63). It was also the least risky strategy with 11% chance of a benefit cost ratio of less than one.<br/><br/>The study indicates that FMD has a high economic impact in Ethiopia. Its control is predicted to be economically profitable even without a full consideration of gains from export. The targeted vaccination strategy is shown to provide the largest economic return with a relatively low risk of loss. More studies to generate data, especially on production impact of the disease and effectiveness of control measures are needed to improve the rigor of future analysis.<br/

Systems approaches to innovation in pest management: reflections and lessons learned from an integrated research program on parasitic weeds in rice

This paper provides a retrospective look at a systems-oriented research program, on the increasing occurrence of parasitic weeds in rainfed rice in sub-Saharan Africa, to qualitatively assess merits and identify challenges of such approach. We gained a broad contextual overview of the problem and different stakeholders' roles, which enabled identification of entry points for innovations in parasitic weed management. At the crop level parasitic weed infestation is associated with poor soil fertility and water management. Farmers' infrequent use of inputs to control them was caused by various factors, ranging from fears of undesired side effects (agronomic) to a lack of quality control of products (institutional). Furthermore, there may be enough extension agents, but they lack the required training on (parasitic) weed management to provide farmers with advice, while their organizations do not provide them with the necessary means for farm visits. At even higher organizational levels we observed a lack of coherent policies on parasitic weed control and implementation of them. Merits and challenges of an integrated multi-stakeholder and multi-level research project are discussed

The effect of hormone therapy on breast density following risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in women with an increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of tibolone to conjugated estrogens with medroxyprogesterone-acetate (CEE + MPA) on breast density, as a predictor for breast cancer risk, in women with a high risk of breast and ovarian cancer. METHODS: Women aged 30-50 (N = 114) who had undergone risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) were randomized to tibolone or CEE + MPA. RESULTS: Breast density decreased 46% after RRSO in untreated women, 39% after treatment with tibolone, and 17% after treatment with CEE + MPA; the decrease in breast density after CEE + MPA was significantly different compared with that of untreated women (P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: A decline in breast density is seen after premenopausal RRSO despite the use of both CEE + MPA or tibolone, although lower breast density is seen after tibolone use