Tracking mortality in near to real time provides essential information about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa in 2020

Background. Producing timely and accurate estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on mortality is challenging for most countries, but impossible for South Africa (SA) from cause-of-death statistics. Objectives. To quantify the excess deaths and likely magnitude of COVID-19 in SA in 2020 and draw conclusions on monitoring the epidemic in 2021. Methods. Basic details of deaths registered on the National Population Register by the Department of Home Affairs (DoHA) are provided to the South African Medical Research Council weekly. Adjustments are made to the numbers of weekly deaths to account for non-registration on the population register, as well as late registration of death with the DoHA. The weekly number of deaths is compared with the number predicted based on the Holt-Winters time-series analysis of past deaths for provinces and metropolitan areas. Excess deaths were calculated for all-causes deaths and natural deaths, using the predicted deaths as a baseline. In addition, an adjustment was made to the baseline for natural deaths to account for the drop in natural deaths due to lockdown. Results. We estimated that just over 550 000 deaths occurred among persons aged ≥1 year during 2020, 13% higher than the 485 000 predicted before the pandemic. A pronounced increase in weekly deaths from natural causes peaked in the middle of July across all ages except <20 years, and across all provinces with slightly different timing. During December, it became clear that SA was experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 that would exceed the death toll of the first wave. In 2020, there were 70 000 - 76 000 excess deaths from natural causes, depending on the base. Using the adjusted base, the excess death rate from natural causes was 122 per 100 000 population, with a male-to-female ratio of 0.78. Deaths from unnatural causes halved for both males and females during the stringent lockdown level 5. The numbers reverted towards the predicted number with some fluctuations as lockdown restrictions varied. Just under 5 000 unnatural deaths were averted. Conclusions. Tracking the weekly numbers of deaths in near to real time has provided important information about the spatiotemporal impact of the pandemic and highlights that the ~28 000 reported COVID-19 deaths during 2020 substantially understate the death toll from COVID-19. There is an urgent need to re-engineer the system of collecting and processing cause-of-death information so that it can be accessed in a timely way to inform public health actions

Issues in public health: Unnatural deaths, alcohol bans and curfews: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment during COVID-19

Background. Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) restrictions, particularly relating to the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew, have had a marked effect on the temporal pattern of unnatural deaths in South Africa. Methods. Death data were collected over 68 weeks from January 2020 to April 2021, together with information on the nature of restrictions (if any) on the sale of alcohol, and hours of curfew. Data were analysed using a simple ordinary least square (OLS) regression model to estimate the relative contribution of restrictions on the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew to the pattern of excess unnatural deaths. Results. The complete restriction on the sale of alcohol resulted in a statistically significant reduction in unnatural deaths regardless of the length of curfew. To the contrary, periods where no or limited restrictions on alcohol were in force had no significant effect, or resulted in significantly increased unnatural deaths. Conclusion. The present study highlights an association between alcohol availability and the number of unnatural deaths and demonstrates the extent to which those deaths might be averted by disrupting the alcohol supply. While this is not a long-term solution to addressing alcohol-related harm, it further raises the importance of implementing evidence-based alcohol control measures

Psychometric Evaluation and Design of Patient-Centered Communication Measures for Cancer Care Settings

Objective To evaluate the psychometric properties of questions that assess patient perceptions of patient-provider communication and design measures of patient-centered communication (PCC). Methods Participants (adults with colon or rectal cancer living in North Carolina) completed a survey at 2 to 3 months post-diagnosis. The survey included 87 questions in six PCC Functions: Exchanging Information, Fostering Health Relationships, Making Decisions, Responding to Emotions, Enabling Patient Self-Management, and Managing Uncertainty. For each Function we conducted factor analyses, item response theory modeling, and tests for differential item functioning, and assessed reliability and construct validity. Results Participants included 501 respondents; 46% had a high school education or less. Reliability within each Function ranged from 0.90 to 0.96. The PCC-Ca-36 (36-question survey; reliability=0.94) and PCC-Ca-6 (6-question survey; reliability=0.92) measures differentiated between individuals with poor and good health (i.e., known-groups validity) and were highly correlated with the HINTS communication scale (i.e., convergent validity). Conclusion This study provides theory-grounded PCC measures found to be reliable and valid in colorectal cancer patients in North Carolina. Future work should evaluate measure validity over time and in other cancer populations. Practice implications The PCC-Ca-36 and PCC-Ca-6 measures may be used for surveillance, intervention research, and quality improvement initiatives

An investigation of factors associated with the health and well-being of HIV-infected or HIV-affected older people in rural South Africa

BackgroundDespite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people's health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. MethodsData were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. ResultsMedian age of the sample was 60 years (range 50-94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women's adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men's; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and Conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system. <br/

Flexible electronics: The next ubiquitous platform

Thin-film electronics in its myriad forms has underpinned much of the technological innovation in the fields of displays, sensors, and energy conversion over the past four decades. This technology also forms the basis of flexible electronics. Here we review the current status of flexible electronics and attempt to predict the future promise of these pervading technologies in healthcare, environmental monitoring, displays and human-machine interactivity, energy conversion, management and storage, and communication and wireless networks

Stroking modulates noxious-evoked brain activity in human infants

A subclass of C fibre sensory neurons found in hairy skin are activated by gentle touch [1] and respond optimally to stroking at ∼1–10 cm/s, serving a protective function by promoting affiliative behaviours. In adult humans, stimulation of these C-tactile (CT) afferents is pleasant, and can reduce pain perception [2]. Touch-based techniques, such as infant massage and kangaroo care, are designed to comfort infants during procedures, and a modest reduction in pain-related behavioural and physiological responses has been observed in some studies [3]. Here, we investigated whether touch can reduce noxious-evoked brain activity. We demonstrate that stroking (at 3 cm/s) prior to an experimental noxious stimulus or clinical heel lance can attenuate noxious-evoked brain activity in infants. CT fibres may represent a biological target for non-pharmacological interventions that modulate pain in early life

The epidemiological transition in Antananarivo, Madagascar: an assessment based on death registers (1900–2012)

Background: Madagascar today has one of the highest life expectancies in sub-Saharan Africa, despite being among the poorest countries in the continent. There are relatively few detailed accounts of the epidemiological transition in this country due to the lack of a comprehensive death registration system at the national level. However, in Madagascar's capital city, death registration was established around the start of the 20th century and is now considered virtually complete. Objective: We provide an overview of trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Antananarivo to document the timing and pace of the mortality decline and the changes in the cause-of-death structure. Design: Death registers covering the period 1976–2012 were digitized and the population at risk of dying was estimated from available censuses and surveys. Trends for the period 1900–1976 were partly reconstructed from published sources. Results: The crude death rate stagnated around 30‰ until the 1940s in Antananarivo. Mortality declined rapidly after the World War II and then resurged again in the 1980s as a result of the re-emergence of malaria and the collapse of Madagascar's economy. Over the past 30 years, impressive gains in life expectancy have been registered thanks to the unabated decline in child mortality, despite political instability, a lasting economic crisis and the persistence of high rates of chronic malnutrition. Progress in adult survival has been more modest because reductions in infectious diseases and diseases of the respiratory system have been partly offset by increases in cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and other diseases, particularly at age 50 years and over. Conclusions: The transition in Antananarivo has been protracted and largely dependent on anti-microbial and anti-parasitic medicine. The capital city now faces a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. The ongoing registration of deaths in the capital generates a unique database to evaluate the performance of the health system and measure intervention impacts