Does Gibrat's Law Hold Amongst Dairy Farmers in Northern Ireland?

This paper tests whether the Law of Proportionate Effects (Gibrat, 1931), which states that farms grow at a rate that is independent of their size, holds for the dairy farms in Northern Ireland. Previous studies have tended to concentrate on testing whether the law holds for all farms. The methodology used in this study permits investigation of whether the law holds for some farms or all farms according to their size. The approach used avoids the subjective splitting of samples, which tends to bias results. The finding shows that the Gibrat law does hold except in the case of small farms. This is in accordance with previous findings that Gibrat's law tends to hold when only larger farms are considered, but tends to fail when smaller farms are included in the analysis. Implications and further extensions, as well as some alternatives to the proposed methodology are discussed.Gibrat's law, quantile regression, sample selection bias, Integrated Conditional Moments test, Agricultural and Food Policy, C12, C14, O49, Q19,

“Waiting for Godot”- Restructuring on Small Family Farms

This paper examines the extent to which favourable off-farm labour market conditions coupled with growth in land values have contributed to the observed resilience of small scale family farms. We use data from Northern Ireland and employ farm household optimisation models to analyse household decision making processes that contribute to the observed inertia in farm structure. The analysis indicates that farm household behaviour is influenced not just by current farm income, but also expected capital asset returns. Increased wealth, associated with continuing land ownership, gives rise to the proposition that the link between off-farm incomes, increased land values and remaining in farming may be associated with farmers pursuing wealth maximizing objectives, whilst still maintaining a rural way of life. Alongside increased wealth through land ownership the farm household model quantifies the importance of off-farm income removing the pressure from farming income to fund all family consumption needs. This enables households to sustain low-income farming activities in order to pursue other objectives such as wealth management (including tax efficient transfer of wealth) and lifestyle. Consequently, the results indicate that the survival of small-scale family farms may be much less sensitive to agricultural support policies than has been commonly suggested. In an extension that explores the effects of the recent economic turbulence due to the ‘credit crunch’ we find that the households remain resilient even when subjected to a protracted period of reduced off-farm employment.Farm households, resilience, wealth accumulation, off-farm income, Consumer/Household Economics, Productivity Analysis, C61, Q12,

Do EU direct payments to beef producers belong in the ‘blue box’?

In the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, so-called ‘blue box’ support measures were exempted from reduction commitments, provided they were delivered under ‘production-limiting’ programs. Although classified as ‘blue box’, the EU system of direct payments (DP) to beef farmers imposes ‘claim-limiting’ restrictions rather than ‘production-limiting’ restrictions, allowing farmers to keep additional animals over and above the number upon which they are eligible to claim DP. The present paper provides empirical evidence that EU direct payments capitalise into the market prices of male calves and young steers in Ireland. It is also likely that DP capitalises into the prices of beef cows and heifers. Given this capitalisation process, some farmers can obtain ‘capitalised’ DP on animals produced over and above the ‘claim-limiting’ restrictions, by selling these animals through auction markets. Thus, ‘capitalised’ DP probably encourages production over and above the limiting measures.Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

A Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Volatile World Agricultural Prices on European and UK Agriculture

Successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms and trade liberalisation have led to a more market-orientated European agricultural sector, with EU commodity prices now more closely linked to world prices. As a consequence EU prices have become more volatile. Greater price volatility increases uncertainty and raises fresh challenges for projections of policy impacts in the EU. To take account of world price volatility stochastic modelling has been applied to the FAPRI-EU partial equilibrium model, which includes a UK modelling system. Stochastic modelling provides a means to capture some of the inherent uncertainty associated with agricultural production systems. By varying assumptions about certain exogenous variables, stochastic models can be used to examine the different ways markets may behave. Variable world prices are incorporated within the EU GOLD model. This process identifies the impact of a stochastic distribution of world prices on EU agriculture rather than the single point estimates in the conventional deterministic approach. The results outlined in this study demonstrate the impact of volatile world prices on EU and, in particular, UK prices and market control instrumentsAgricultural policy, Stochastic modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Impact of the abolition of EU Milk quotas on Agriculture in the UK

In recent years the CAP has undergone significant reforms, but the dairy sector has largely avoided wholesale changes. The sector, however, is now faced with a significant effort by the Commission to instigate reform. In this study the FAPRI-UK modelling system is simulated to identify the impact of abolishing or phasing out EU milk quotas on the dairy sector in the UK and the results are compared against a 2007 Baseline projection (2007--2016). The results demonstrate that although the impact of the abolition of dairy quotas is fairly modest at the EU-25 level, significant impacts are apparent at the individual country level.Milk Quotas, CAP Reform, Commodity Modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Activation of a novel natriuretic endocrine system in humans with heart failure

Proguanylin and prouroguanylin are the inactive precursors of guanylin and uroguanylin, natriuretic peptides involved in the regulation of sodium balance. Urinary uroguanylin levels have been found previously to be elevated in patients with HF (heart failure). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether plasma proguanylin and prouroguanylin levels are increased in patients with HF and to evaluate their relationship with cardiac and renal function. In this prospective observational study, we recruited 243 patients with HF (151 men) and 72 healthy controls. In patients with HF, plasma levels of proguanylin [median, 7.2 (range, 0.9–79.0) μg/l] and prouroguanylin [8.3 (1.7–53.0 μg/l)] were both significantly (P<0.0005) higher compared with levels in healthy controls [5.5 (0.4–22.3 μg/l) for proguanylin and 6.3 (2.5–16.9) μg/l for prouroguanylin]. In patients with HF, increased age, a history of hypertension, diabetes and atrial fibrillation, use of diuretics, a higher NYHA (New York Heart Association) class and a lower eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) were significant univariate predictors of proguanylin and prouroguanylin levels. In multivariate analysis, a history of hypertension and low eGFR both had strong independent associations with proguanylin and prouroguanylin levels. Proguanylin and prouroguanylin varied significantly between NYHA class with a trend of increasing plasma concentrations with worsening severity of symptoms. In conclusion, plasma proguanylin and prouroguanylin are elevated in patients with HF. Elevated plasma proguanylin and prouroguanylin levels are associated with hypertension, renal impairment and increasing severity of HF. This novel endocrine system may contribute to the pathophysiology of HF

A Geographically-Restricted but Prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strain Identified in the West Midlands Region of the UK between 1995 and 2008

Background: We describe the identification of, and risk factors for, the single most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in the West Midlands region of the UK.Methodology/Principal Findings: Prospective 15-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping of all M. tuberculosis isolates in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 was undertaken. Two retrospective epidemiological investigations were also undertaken using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The first study of all TB patients in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 identified a single prevalent strain in each of the study years (total 155/3,056 (5%) isolates). This prevalent MIRU-VNTR profile (32333 2432515314 434443183) remained clustered after typing with an additional 9-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. The majority of these patients (122/155, 79%) resided in three major cities located within a 40 km radius. From the apparent geographical restriction, we have named this the "Mercian" strain. A multivariate analysis of all TB patients in the West Midlands identified that infection with a Mercian strain was significantly associated with being UK-born (OR = 9.03, 95% CI = 4.56-17.87, p 65 years old (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.09-0.67, p < 0.01). A second more detailed investigation analyzed a cohort of 82 patients resident in Wolverhampton between 2003 and 2006. A significant association with being born in the UK remained after a multivariate analysis (OR = 9.68, 95% CI = 2.00-46.78, p < 0.01) and excess alcohol intake and cannabis use (OR = 6.26, 95% CI = 1.45-27.02, p = .01) were observed as social risk factors for infection.Conclusions/Significance: The continued consistent presence of the Mercian strain suggests ongoing community transmission. Whilst significant associations have been found, there may be other common risk factors yet to be identified. Future investigations should focus on targeting the relevant risk groups and elucidating the biological factors that mediate continued transmission of this strain

Potential Economic Viability of Two Proposed Rifapentine-Based Regimens for Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Rationale: Rifapentine-based regimens for treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are being considered for future clinical trials, but even if they prove effective, high drug costs may limit their economic viability. Objectives: To inform clinical trial design by estimating the potential costs and effectiveness of rifapentine-based regimens for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Methods: We used a Markov model to estimate cost and societal benefits for three regimens for treating LTBI: Isoniazid/ rifapentine daily for one month, isoniazid/rifapentine weekly for three months (self-administered and directly-observed), and isoniazid daily for nine months; a strategy of ‘‘no treatment’ ’ used for comparison. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and instances of active tuberculosis averted were calculated for all arms. Results: Both daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months were less expensive and more effective than other strategies under a wide variety of clinically plausibly parameter estimates. Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month was the least expensive and most effective regimen. Conclusions: Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months should be studied in a large-scale clinical trial for efficacy. Because both regimens performed well even if their efficacy is somewhat reduced

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Allele-Specific HLA Loss and Immune Escape in Lung Cancer Evolution

Immune evasion is a hallmark of cancer. Losing the ability to present neoantigens through human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loss may facilitate immune evasion. However, the polymorphic nature of the locus has precluded accurate HLA copy-number analysis. Here, we present loss of heterozygosity in human leukocyte antigen (LOHHLA), a computational tool to determine HLA allele-specific copy number from sequencing data. Using LOHHLA, we find that HLA LOH occurs in 40% of non-small-cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) and is associated with a high subclonal neoantigen burden, APOBEC-mediated mutagenesis, upregulation of cytolytic activity, and PD-L1 positivity. The focal nature of HLA LOH alterations, their subclonal frequencies, enrichment in metastatic sites, and occurrence as parallel events suggests that HLA LOH is an immune escape mechanism that is subject to strong microenvironmental selection pressures later in tumor evolution. Characterizing HLA LOH with LOHHLA refines neoantigen prediction and may have implications for our understanding of resistance mechanisms and immunotherapeutic approaches targeting neoantigens. Video Abstract [Figure presented] Development of the bioinformatics tool LOHHLA allows precise measurement of allele-specific HLA copy number, improves the accuracy in neoantigen prediction, and uncovers insights into how immune escape contributes to tumor evolution in non-small-cell lung cancer