Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa

Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women

Population genomics of domestic and wild yeasts

The natural genetics of an organism is determined by the distribution of sequences of its genome. Here we present one- to four-fold, with some deeper, coverage of the genome sequences of over seventy isolates of the domesticated baker's yeast, _Saccharomyces cerevisiae_, and its closest relative, the wild _S. paradoxus_, which has never been associated with human activity. These were collected from numerous geographic locations and sources (including wild, clinical, baking, wine, laboratory and food spoilage). These sequences provide an unprecedented view of the population structure, natural (and artificial) selection and genome evolution in these species. Variation in gene content, SNPs, indels, copy numbers and transposable elements provide insights into the evolution of different lineages. Phenotypic variation broadly correlates with global genome-wide phylogenetic relationships however there is no correlation with source. _S. paradoxus_ populations are well delineated along geographic boundaries while the variation among worldwide _S. cerevisiae_ isolates show less differentiation and is comparable to a single _S. paradoxus_ population. Rather than one or two domestication events leading to the extant baker's yeasts, the population structure of _S. cerevisiae_ shows a few well defined geographically isolated lineages and many different mosaics of these lineages, supporting the notion that human influence provided the opportunity for outbreeding and production of new combinations of pre-existing variation

A national survey of medical education fellowships

Purpose: The purpose of our study was to determine the prevalence, focus, time commitment, graduation requirements and programme evaluation methods of medical education fellowships throughout the United States. Medical education fellowships are defined as a single cohort of medical teaching faculty who participate in an extended faculty development programme. Methods: A 26-item online questionnaire was distributed to all US medical schools (n=127) in 2005 and 2006. The questionnaire asked each school if it had a medical education fellowship and the characteristics of the fellowship programme. Results: Almost half (n=55) of the participating schools (n=120, response rate 94.5 %) reported having fellowships. Duration (10–584 hours) and length (<1 month–48 months) varied; most focused on teaching skills, scholarly dissemination and curriculum design, and required the completion of a scholarly project. A majority collected participant satisfaction; few used other programme evaluation strategies. Conclusions: The number of medical education fellowships increased rapidly during the 1990s and 2000s. Across the US, programmes are similar in participant characteristics and curricular focus but unique in completion requirements. Fellowships collect limited programme evaluation data, indicating a need for better outcome data. These results provide benchmark data for those implementing or revising existing medical education fellowships

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

Performance of Three LED-Based Fluorescence Microscopy Systems for Detection of Tuberculosis in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Direct smear microscopy using Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) staining is the mainstay of tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in most high burden countries, but is limited by low sensitivity in routine practice, particularly in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings. METHODS: We compared the performance of three commercial light emitting diode (LED)-based microscopy systems (Primostar™ iLED, Lumin™ and AFTER®) for fluorescent detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with ZN microscopy on slides prepared from sputum of TB suspects. Examination time for LED-based fluorescent microscopy (LED FM) and ZN slides was also compared, and a qualitative user appraisal of the LED FM systems was carried out. RESULTS: LED FM was between 5.6 and 9.4% more sensitive than ZN microscopy, although the difference was not statistically significant. There was no significant difference in the sensitivity or specificity of the three LED FM systems, although the specificity of Fraen AFTER was somewhat lower than the other LED FM methods. Examination time for LED FM was 2 and 4 times less than for ZN microscopy. LED FM was highly acceptable to Ugandan technologists, although differences in operational performance of the three systems were reported. CONCLUSIONS: LED FM compares favourably with ZN microscopy, with equivalent specificity and a modest increase in sensitivity. Screening of slides was substantially quicker using LED FM than ZN, and LED FM was rated highly by laboratory technologists. Available commercial systems have different operational characteristics which should be considered prior to programmatic implementation

Exoplanet Atmosphere Measurements from Transmission Spectroscopy and other Planet-Star Combined Light Observations

It is possible to learn a great deal about exoplanet atmospheres even when we cannot spatially resolve the planets from their host stars. In this chapter, we overview the basic techniques used to characterize transiting exoplanets - transmission spectroscopy, emission and reflection spectroscopy, and full-orbit phase curve observations. We discuss practical considerations, including current and future observing facilities and best practices for measuring precise spectra. We also highlight major observational results on the chemistry, climate, and cloud properties of exoplanets.Comment: Accepted review chapter; Handbook of Exoplanets, eds. Hans J. Deeg and Juan Antonio Belmonte (Springer-Verlag). 22 pages, 6 figure

Further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years: a systematic review.

Background: Further investigation of confirmed UTI in children aims to prevent renal scarring and future complications. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to determine the most effective approach to the further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years of age. Results: 73 studies were included. Many studies had methodological limitations or were poorly reported. Effectiveness of further investigations: One study found that routine imaging did not lead to a reduction in recurrent UTIs or renal scarring. Diagnostic accuracy: The studies do not support the use of less invasive tests such as ultrasound as an alternative to renal scintigraphy, either to rule out infection of the upper urinary tract (LR- = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.47, 0.68) and thus to exclude patients from further investigation or to detect renal scarring (LR+ = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.5, 4.8). None of the tests investigated can accurately predict the development of renal scarring. The available evidence supports the consideration of contrast-enhanced ultrasound techniques for detecting vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR), as an alternative to micturating cystourethrography (MCUG) (LR+ = 14.1, 95% CI: 9.5, 20.8; LR- = 0.20, 95%CI: 0.13, 0.29); these techniques have the advantage of not requiring exposure to ionising radiation. Conclusion: There is no evidence to support the clinical effectiveness of routine investigation of children with confirmed UTI. Primary research on the effectiveness, in terms of improved patient outcome, of testing at all stages in the investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection is urgently required

Chapter 8: Meta-analysis of Test Performance When There is a “Gold Standard”

Synthesizing information on test performance metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios is often an important part of a systematic review of a medical test. Because many metrics of test performance are of interest, the meta-analysis of medical tests is more complex than the meta-analysis of interventions or associations. Sometimes, a helpful way to summarize medical test studies is to provide a “summary point”, a summary sensitivity and a summary specificity. Other times, when the sensitivity or specificity estimates vary widely or when the test threshold varies, it is more helpful to synthesize data using a “summary line” that describes how the average sensitivity changes with the average specificity. Choosing the most helpful summary is subjective, and in some cases both summaries provide meaningful and complementary information. Because sensitivity and specificity are not independent across studies, the meta-analysis of medical tests is fundamentaly a multivariate problem, and should be addressed with multivariate methods. More complex analyses are needed if studies report results at multiple thresholds for positive tests. At the same time, quantitative analyses are used to explore and explain any observed dissimilarity (heterogeneity) in the results of the examined studies. This can be performed in the context of proper (multivariate) meta-regressions

Vector assembly of colloids on monolayer substrates

The key to spontaneous and directed assembly is to encode the desired assembly information to building blocks in a programmable and efficient way. In computer graphics, raster graphics encodes images on a single-pixel level, conferring fine details at the expense of large file sizes, whereas vector graphics encrypts shape information into vectors that allow small file sizes and operational transformations. Here, we adapt this raster/vector concept to a 2D colloidal system and realize 'vector assembly' by manipulating particles on a colloidal monolayer substrate with optical tweezers. In contrast to raster assembly that assigns optical tweezers to each particle, vector assembly requires a minimal number of optical tweezers that allow operations like chain elongation and shortening. This vector approach enables simple uniform particles to form a vast collection of colloidal arenes and colloidenes, the spontaneous dissociation of which is achieved with precision and stage-by-stage complexity by simply removing the optical tweezers