A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection

The Effect of the CO32- to Ca2+ Ion activity ratio on calcite precipitation kinetics and Sr2+ partitioning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A proposed strategy for immobilizing trace metals in the subsurface is to stimulate calcium carbonate precipitation and incorporate contaminants by co-precipitation. Such an approach will require injecting chemical amendments into the subsurface to generate supersaturated conditions that promote mineral precipitation. However, the formation of reactant mixing zones will create gradients in both the saturation state and ion activity ratios (i.e., <inline-formula><m:math name="1467-4866-13-1-i1" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>O</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>3</m:mn></m:mrow></m:msub></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">-</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">/</m:mo><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">+</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub></m:math></inline-formula>). To better understand the effect of ion activity ratios on CaCO₃precipitation kinetics and Sr²⁺co-precipitation, experiments were conducted under constant composition conditions where the supersaturation state (Ω) for calcite was held constant at 9.4, but the ion activity ratio <inline-formula><m:math name="1467-4866-13-1-i2" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><m:mrow><m:mo class="MathClass-open">(</m:mo><m:mrow><m:mi>r</m:mi><m:mo class="MathClass-rel">=</m:mo><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>O</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>3</m:mn></m:mrow></m:msub></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">-</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">/</m:mo><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">+</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub></m:mrow><m:mo class="MathClass-close">)</m:mo></m:mrow></m:math></inline-formula> was varied between 0.0032 and 4.15.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Calcite was the only phase observed, by XRD, at the end of the experiments. Precipitation rates increased from 41.3 ± 3.4 μmol m^-2min^-1at <it>r = </it>0.0315 to a maximum rate of 74.5 ± 4.8 μmol m^-2min^-1at <it>r = </it>0.306 followed by a decrease to 46.3 ± 9.6 μmol m^-2min^-1at <it>r </it>= 1.822. The trend was simulated using a simple mass transfer model for solute uptake at the calcite surface. However, precipitation rates at fixed saturation states also evolved with time. Precipitation rates accelerated for low <it>r </it>values but slowed for high <it>r </it>values. These trends may be related to changes in effective reactive surface area. The <inline-formula><m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" name="1467-4866-13-1-i1"><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>O</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>3</m:mn></m:mrow></m:msub></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">-</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">/</m:mo><m:msub><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mi>C</m:mi><m:msup><m:mrow><m:mi>a</m:mi></m:mrow><m:mrow><m:mn>2</m:mn><m:mo class="MathClass-bin">+</m:mo></m:mrow></m:msup></m:mrow></m:msub></m:math></inline-formula> ratios did not affect the distribution coefficient for Sr in calcite (D^P_Sr²⁺), apart from the indirect effect associated with the established positive correlation between D^P_Sr²⁺and calcite precipitation rate.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>At a constant supersaturation state (Ω = 9.4), varying the ion activity ratio affects the calcite precipitation rate. This behavior is not predicted by affinity-based rate models. Furthermore, at the highest ion ratio tested, no precipitation was observed, while at the lowest ion ratio precipitation occurred immediately and valid rate measurements could not be made. The maximum measured precipitation rate was 2-fold greater than the minima, and occurred at a carbonate to calcium ion activity ratio of 0.306. These findings have implications for predicting the progress and cost of remediation operations involving enhanced calcite precipitation where mineral precipitation rates, and the spatial/temporal distribution of those rates, can have significant impacts on the mobility of contaminants.</p

Why do women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care? A qualitative investigation with women attending maternity services

Background Despite the importance attributed to good pre-pregnancy care and its potential to improve pregnancy and child health outcomes, relatively little is known about why women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care. We sought to gain insight into why women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care. Methods We carried out 20 qualitative in-depth interviews with pregnant or recently pregnant women who were drawn from a survey of antenatal clinic attendees in London, UK. Interviewees were purposively sampled to include high and low investors in pre-pregnancy health and care, with variation in age, partnership status, ethnicity and pre-existing medical conditions. Data analysis was conducted using the Framework method. Results We identified three groups in relation to pre-pregnancy health and care: 1) The “prepared” group, who had high levels of pregnancy planning and mostly positive attitudes to micronutrient supplementation outside of pregnancy, carried out pre-pregnancy activities such as taking folic acid and making changes to diet and lifestyle. 2) The “poor knowledge” group, who also had high levels of pregnancy planning, did not carry out pre-pregnancy activities and described themselves as having poor knowledge. Elsewhere in their interviews they expressed a strong dislike of micronutrient supplementation. 3) The “absent pre-pregnancy period” group, had the lowest levels of pregnancy planning and also expressed anti-supplement views. Even discussing the pre-pregnancy period with this group was difficult as responses to questions quickly shifted to focus on pregnancy itself. Knowledge of folic acid was poor in all groups. Conclusion Different pre-pregnancy care approaches are likely to be needed for each of the groups. Among the “prepared” group, who were proactive and receptive to health messages, greater availability of information and better response from health professionals could improve the range of pre-pregnancy activities carried out. Among the “poor knowledge” group, better response from health professionals might yield greater uptake of pre-pregnancy information. A different, general health strategy might be more appropriate for the “absent pre-pregnancy period” group. The fact that general attitudes to micronutrient supplementation were closely related to whether or not women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care was an unanticipated finding and warrants further investigation.This report is independent research commissioned and funded by the Department of Health Policy Research Programme Pre-Pregnancy Health and Care in England: Exploring Implementation and Public Health Impact, 006/0068

The individual and combined effects of obesity- and ageing-induced systemic inflammation on human skeletal muscle properties.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine whether circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines, elevated with increased fat mass and ageing, were associated with muscle properties in young and older people with variable adiposity. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Seventy-five young (18-49 yrs) and 67 older (50-80 yrs) healthy, untrained men and women (BMI: 17-49 kg/m(2)) performed isometric and isokinetic plantar flexor maximum voluntary contractions (MVCs). Volume (Vm), fascicle pennation angle (FPA), and physiological cross-sectional area (PCSA) of the gastrocnemius medialis (GM) muscle were measured using ultrasonography. Voluntary muscle activation (VA) was assessed using electrical stimulation. GM specific force was calculated as GM fascicle force/PCSA. Percentage body fat (BF%), body fat mass (BFM), and lean mass (BLM) were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Serum concentration of 12 cytokines was measured using multiplex luminometry. RESULTS: Despite greater Vm, FPA, and PCSA (P0.05), while IL-8 correlated with VA in older but not young adults (r⩾0.378, P⩽0.027). TNF-alpha correlated with MVC, lean mass, GM FPA and maximum force in older adults (r⩾0.458; P⩽0.048). CONCLUSIONS: The age- and adiposity-dependent relationships found here provide evidence that circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines may play different roles in muscle remodelling according to the age and adiposity of the individual.International Journal of Obesity accepted article preview online, 29 August 2016. doi:10.1038/ijo.2016.151

Why Give Birth in Health Facility? Users' and Providers' Accounts of Poor Quality of Birth Care in Tanzania.

In Tanzania, half of all pregnant women access a health facility for delivery. The proportion receiving skilled care at birth is even lower. In order to reduce maternal mortality and morbidity, the government has set out to increase health facility deliveries by skilled care. The aim of this study was to describe the weaknesses in the provision of acceptable and adequate quality care through the accounts of women who have suffered obstetric fistula, nurse-midwives at both BEmOC and CEmOC health facilities and local community members. Semi-structured interviews involving 16 women affected by obstetric fistula and five nurse-midwives at maternity wards at both BEmOC and CEmOC health facilities, and Focus Group Discussions with husbands and community members were conducted between October 2008 and February 2010 at Comprehensive Community Based Rehabilitation in Tanzania and Temeke hospitals in Dar es Salaam, and Mpwapwa district in Dodoma region. Health care users and health providers experienced poor quality caring and working environments in the health facilities. Women in labour lacked support, experienced neglect, as well as physical and verbal abuse. Nurse-midwives lacked supportive supervision, supplies and also seemed to lack motivation. There was a consensus among women who have suffered serious birth injuries and nurse midwives staffing both BEmOC and CEmOC maternity wards that the quality of care offered to women in birth was inadequate. While the birth accounts of women pointed to failure of care, the nurses described a situation of disempowerment. The bad birth care experiences of women undermine the reputation of the health care system, lower community expectations of facility birth, and sustain high rates of home deliveries. The only way to increase the rate of skilled attendance at birth in the current Tanzanian context is to make facility birth a safer alternative than home birth. The findings from this study indicate that there is a long way to go

Systematic review of grounded theory studies in physiotherapy

Aim: This systematic review aimed at appraising the methodological rigor of grounded theory research published in the field of physiotherapy to assess how the methodology is understood and applied. A secondary aim was to provide research implications drawn from the findings to guide future grounded theory methodology research. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINHAL, SPORT Discus, Science Direct, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science to identify studies in the field of physiotherapy that reported using grounded theory methodology and/or methods in the study title and/or abstract. The descriptive characteristics and methodological quality of eligible studies were examined using the assessment guidelines developed by Hutchison, Johnston and Breckon (2011). Findings: The review included sixty-eight studies conducted between 1998 and 2017. The findings showed that grounded theory methodology is becoming increasingly used by physiotherapy researchers. Thirty-six studies (53%) demonstrated a good understanding and appropriate application of grounded theory methodology. Thirty-two studies (47%) presented descriptive findings and were considered to be of poor methodological quality. Conclusions: There are several key tenets of grounded theory methodology that are integral to the iterative process of qualitative theorizing and need to be applied throughout all research practices including sampling, data collection and analysis

The relationship between the symptoms of female gonococcal infections and serum progesterone level and the genotypes of Neisseria gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence type (NG-MAST) in Wuhan, China

The objective of this investigation was to study the relationship between the symptoms of female gonococcal infections and serum progesterone level and the genotypes of Neisseria gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence type (NG-MAST) in Wuhan, China. Eighty-one strains of N. gonorrhoeae were harvested from the vaginal discharge of 975 adult females in Wuhan and were genotyped by using NG-MAST. Serum progesterone (P) and estradiol (E2) levels were measured by radio immunoassay (RIA) in 39 gonorrhea-infected patients with slight symptoms (asymptomatic group) and 42 patients with conspicuous symptoms (symptomatic group). The average levels of serum progesterone in the asymptomatic group were significantly higher than in the symptomatic group (p < 0.05), while no significant difference was found in serum estradiol between the two groups. Of 81 wild-type isolates, 50 NG-MAST sequence types were associated with female infections in Wuhan, and N. gonorrhoeae ST2951, ST735, and ST436 were principally found in asymptomatic patients. ST809 and ST369, however, were mainly detected in asymptomatic female subjects. Gonococcal genetic island (GGI)-positive and GGI-negative strains were found in both the asymptomatic group and the symptomatic group. In females with gonococcal infection, high serum progesterone level is associated with the absence of symptoms, but no association was revealed between genotypes and the presence of symptoms. The GGI bears no relation to the absence of symptoms in the patients

QTL analysis for resistance to foliar damage caused by Thrips tabaci and Frankliniella schultzei (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) feeding in cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.]

Three quantitative trait loci (QTL) for resistance to Thrips tabaci and Frankliniella schultzei were identified using a cowpea recombinant inbred population of 127 F2:8 lines. An amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genetic linkage map and foliar feeding damage ratings were used to identify genomic regions contributing toward resistance to thrips damage. Based on Pearson correlation analysis, damage ratings were highly correlated (r ≥ 0.7463) across seven field experiments conducted in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Using the Kruskall–Wallis and Multiple-QTL model mapping packages of MapQTL 4.0 software, three QTL, Thr-1, Thr-2, and Thr-3, were identified on linkage groups 5 and 7 accounting for between 9.1 and 32.1% of the phenotypic variance. AFLP markers ACC-CAT7, ACG-CTC5, and AGG-CAT1 co-located with QTL peaks for Thr-1, Thr-2, and Thr-3, respectively. Results of this study will provide a resource for molecular marker development and the genetic characterization of foliar thrips resistance in cowpea