Computer-aided communication satellite system analysis and optimization

The capabilities and limitations of the various published computer programs for fixed/broadcast communication satellite system synthesis and optimization are discussed. A satellite Telecommunication analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) for costing and sensitivity analysis work in application of communication satellites to educational development is given. The modifications made to STAMP include: extension of the six beam capability to eight; addition of generation of multiple beams from a single reflector system with an array of feeds; an improved system costing to reflect the time value of money, growth in earth terminal population with time, and to account for various measures of system reliability; inclusion of a model for scintillation at microwave frequencies in the communication link loss model; and, an updated technological environment

Improved simulation of aerosol, cloud, and density measurements by shuttle lidar

Data retrievals are simulated for a Nd:YAG lidar suitable for early flight on the space shuttle. Maximum assumed vertical and horizontal resolutions are 0.1 and 100 km, respectively, in the boundary layer, increasing to 2 and 2000 km in the mesosphere. Aerosol and cloud retrievals are simulated using 1.06 and 0.53 microns wavelengths independently. Error sources include signal measurement, conventional density information, atmospheric transmission, and lidar calibration. By day, tenuous clouds and Saharan and boundary layer aerosols are retrieved at both wavelengths. By night, these constituents are retrieved, plus upper tropospheric, stratospheric, and mesospheric aerosols and noctilucent clouds. Density, temperature, and improved aerosol and cloud retrievals are simulated by combining signals at 0.35, 1.06, and 0.53 microns. Particlate contamination limits the technique to the cloud free upper troposphere and above. Error bars automatically show effect of this contamination, as well as errors in absolute density nonmalization, reference temperature or pressure, and the sources listed above. For nonvolcanic conditions, relative density profiles have rms errors of 0.54 to 2% in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Temperature profiles have rms errors of 1.2 to 2.5 K and can define the tropopause to 0.5 km and higher wave structures to 1 or 2 km

Audits and inspections are never enough: a critique to enhance food safety

Internal and external food safety audits are conducted to assess the safety and quality of food including on-farm production, manufacturing practices, sanitation, and hygiene. Some auditors are direct stakeholders that are employed by food establishments to conduct internal audits, while other auditors may represent the interests of a second party purchaser or a third-party auditing agency. Some buyers conduct their own audits or additional testing, while some buyers trust the results of third-party audits or inspections. Third-party auditors, however, use various food safety audit standards and most do not have a vested interest in the products being sold. Audits are conducted under a proprietary standard, while food safety inspections are generally conducted within a legal framework. There have been many foodborne illness outbreaks linked to food processors that have passed third-party audits and inspections, raising questions about the utility of both. Supporters argue third-party audits are a way to ensure food safety in an era of dwindling economic resources. Critics contend that while external audits and inspections can be a valuable tool to help ensure safe food, such activities represent only a snapshot in time. This paper identifies limitations of food safety inspections and audits and provides recommendations for strengthening the system, based on developing a strong food safety culture, including risk-based verification steps, throughout the food safety system

Cannabis and depression: A twin model approach to co-morbidity

Cannabis use disorder (CUD) co-occurs with major depressive disorder (MDD) more frequently than would be expected by chance. However, studies to date have not produced a clear understanding of the mechanisms underlying this co-morbidity. Genetically informative studies can add valuable insight to this problem, as they allow the evaluation of competing models of co-morbidity. This study uses data from the Australian Twin Registry to compare 13 co-morbidity twin models initially proposed by Neale and Kendler (Am J Hum Genet 57:935–953, 1995). The analysis sample comprised 2410 male and female monozygotic and dizygotic twins (average age 32) who were assessed on CUD and MDD using the SSAGA-OZ interview. Data were analyzed in OpenMx. Of the 13 different co-morbidity models, two fit equally well: CUD causes MDD and Random Multiformity of CUD. Both fit substantially better than the Correlated Liabilities model. Although the current study cannot differentiate between them statistically, these models, in combination, suggest that CUD risk factors may causally influence the risk to develop MDD, but only when risk for CUD is high

The aging male: investigation, treatment and monitoring of late-onset hypogonadism in males

Androgen deficiency in the aging male has become a topic of increasing interest and debate throughout the world. The demographics clearly demonstrate the increasing percentage of the population that is in the older age groups. The data also support the concept that testosterone falls progressively with age and that a significant percentage of men over the age of 60 years have serum testosterone levels that are below the lower limits of young adults (age 20-30 years) men. The principal questions raised by these observations are whether older hypogonadal men will benefit from testosterone treatment and what will be the risks associated with such intervention. The past decade has brought evidence of benefit of androgen treatment on multiple target organs of hypogonadal men and recent studies show short-term beneficial effects of testosterone in older men that are similar to those in younger men. Long-term data on the effects of testosterone treatment in the older population are limited and specific risk data on the prostate and cardiovascular systems are needed. Answers to key questions of functional benefits that may retard frailty of the elderly are not yet available. The recommendations described below were prepared for the International Society of Andrology (ISA) and the International Society for the Study of the Aging Male (ISSAM) following a panel discussion with active participation from the audience sponsored by the ISA on the topic at the 4th ISSAM Congress in Prague in February 2004.peer-reviewe

Evidence for high levels of vertical transmission in Toxoplasma gondii

Toxoplasma gondii is a highly ubiquitous and prevalent parasite. Despite the cat being the only definitive host, it is found in almost all geographical areas and warm blooded animals. Three routes of transmission are recognised: ingestion of oocysts shed by the cat, carnivory and congenital transmission. In natural populations, it is difficult to establish the relative importance of these routes. This paper reviews recent work in our laboratory which suggests that congenital transmission may be much more important than previously thought. Using PCR detection of the parasite, studies in sheep show that congenital transmission may occur in as many as 66% of pregnancies. Furthermore, in families of sheep on the same farm, exposed to the same sources of oocysts, significant divergent prevalences of Toxoplasma infection and abortion are found between different families. The data suggest that breeding from infected ewes increases the risk of subsequent abortion and infection in lambs. Congenital transmission rates in a natural population of mice were found to be 75%. Interestingly, congenital transmission rates in humans were measured at 19.8%. The results presented in these studies differ from those of other published studies and suggest that vertical transmission may be much more important than previously thought

Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework

To assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near the first Lagrangian point. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of Space Weather Modeling Framework and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40‐member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym‐H index and ground magnetic disturbances due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym‐H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym‐H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2 nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in ground magnetic disturbances. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted dBH/dt is low. The confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced dBH/dt. The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. This work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.Plain Language SummaryForecasts of space weather usually rely on spacecraft measurements of the solar wind from about a million miles away from Earth. Like water flowing toward a rock in a stream, measurements at a single point upstream may not reflect exactly what will hit the Earth. Forecasts that are driven by these measurements have uncertainty due to the uncertainty in the measurements driving the forecast models. We have developed a technique to estimate the uncertainty on space weather predictions using 7 years of solar wind measurements from two satellites. We have performed computer simulations of the same geomagnetic storm 41 times. In each simulation, the inputs were modified slightly each time to reflect the uncertainty in the measurements. By considering the set of simulations as a whole, we have shown that space weather forecasts can be improved by accounting for the uncertainty in the input data. We have also shown that accounting for uncertainty in the data driving, the model can highlight where incorrect forecasts are due to the uncertainty, as well as where they are due to inadequacies in the model itself. This work shows the importance of ensemble methods and accounting for uncertainties in space weather simulation and forecasting.Key PointsA new nonparametric method for drawing different realizations of solar wind data to drive magnetospheric models is derivedThe new method is used to obtain uncertainties on predicted geophysical indices from the operational Space Weather Modeling FrameworkModel skill can be improved by considering the uncertainty on model inputPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146472/1/swe20747_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146472/2/swe20747.pd