The Economic Impact of Substantial Sea-Level Rise

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES storylines. This model balances the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to greater damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results. Equity weighting allows the damages to be modified to reflect the wealth of those impacted by sea-level rise. Taking these distributional issues into account increases damage estimates by a factor of three, reflecting that the costs of sea-level rise fall disproportionately on poorer developing countries.Sea-level rise;Socio-economic scenarios;costs;protection;equity weighting

Investment efficiency, state-owned enterprises and privatisation: Evidence from Viet Nam in Transition

Our research firstly tests the difference in investment efficiency between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms and secondly evaluates the effect of privatisiation and equitisation policies on the investment efficiency of former state owned enterprises (SOEs). We use a novel dataset from Viet Nam which covers large and non-listed SMEs across construction, manufacturing, and services sectors. Our methodology uses a structural model to test the relationship between Tobin’s Q and capital spending. We find no evidence of investment spending being linked to marginal returns by SOEs across all sectors and size classes. However, former SOEs who have been privatised and equitized with a minority state shareholding display positive links between Q and investment. In fact, the link is stronger for these firms than for private firms

Modelling the medium- to long-term potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Ireland

There is almost a complete consensus in the international literature that Brexit will have a negative effect on the UK economy both in the short and long run. The UK is one of Ireland’s closest economic partners and little is known about the potential macroeconomic impact that Brexit could have on the Irish economy. In this paper, we use the new COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy (COSMO) to attempt to quantify the medium- to long-run impact of Brexit on the Irish economy under a series of alternative scenarios. These scenarios are intended to cover a range of potential agreements between the UK and the EU. We find that the level of Irish output is permanently below what it otherwise would have been in the absence of Brexit

Regional airport business models: The Shannon Group as a case study

Regional airports, despite their significant economic and social contribution to the communities in which they operate, have low profitability and performance. Scholars have been investigating the connection between ownership models to profitability and performance, without reaching definitive results. Case studies can contribute to a better understanding of how structure and ownership is connected to airport performance, by looking into local specificities. This chapter reviews The Shannon Group, which includes Shannon Airport, and examines its regionally based business model. Shannon Airport’s strategic position is also analysed, and future prospects are considered. Finally, the chapter discusses how active stakeholder engagement and increased local economic activity can contribute to improved performance and new air routes

Modelling the medium- to long-term potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Ireland

There is almost a complete consensus in the international literature that Brexit will have a negative effect on the UK economy both in the short and long run. The UK is one of Ireland’s closest economic partners and little is known about the potential macroeconomic impact that Brexit could have on the Irish economy. In this paper, we use the new COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy (COSMO) to attempt to quantify the medium- to long-run impact of Brexit on the Irish economy under a series of alternative scenarios. These scenarios are intended to cover a range of potential agreements between the UK and the EU. We find that the level of Irish output is permanently below what it otherwise would have been in the absence of Brexit

How sensitive is Irish income tax revenue to underlying economic activity?

In this paper we examine the elasticity of Irish personal income taxation revenue with respect to aggregate national output – both GDP and GNP. This enables us to estimate the sensitivity of this key taxation aggregate with respect to changes in economic activity. Understanding the elasticity of the different taxation components vis-à-vis their underlying economic activity should enable policymakers to place the public finances on a more sustainable footing and hence avoid the sharp booms and busts that have characterised Irish taxation receipts over the past 20 years

International Aspects of Public Infrastructure Investment.

Modelling infrastructure as an international public good in a two-country model of trade where each country’s social planner behaves strategically, we show that the equilibrium levels of infrastructure are sub-optimal from a global perspective. Utilising an appropriate econometric framework and data from 16 European countries over the period 1987-95, we find evidence that accords well with the main predictions of our theory. Thus, we are able to offer a plausible theoretical explanation why public capital may be undersupplied, as suggested by previous empirical literature