Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5° C and 2° C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’

Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). We evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena and F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately

A unifying model for isoprene emission by plants

Isoprene is the most important biogenic organic volatile compound emitted by terrestrial vegetation into the atmosphere, in term of amount and effects on atmospheric chemistry. Primary environmental drivers of isoprene production are photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), leaf temperature (T) and internal CO2 concentration (Ci). Robust process-based modelling approaches are needed to assess how future changes in these environmental drivers may affect isoprene emissions and consequently atmospheric chemistry, air quality and (indirectly) the radiative forcing of climate. I present an original, conceptually simple model for isoprene emission by plants based on the hypothesis that the electron flux available for isoprene biosynthesis depends on the balance between the supply of reducing power generated by the light reactions of photosynthesis and the demand for reducing power in carbon fixation and photorespiration. I explain the physiological reasoning that led me to propose this. Using various leaf-scale measurements of carbon assimilation and isoprene emission, including a laboratory study I conducted on black poplar, I show that the model can reproduce well the variations of isoprene emission with PPFD, temperature, and Ci. The model also reproduces the tendency for the fraction of carbon re-emitted as isoprene to increase with increasing PPFD, and for the quantum efficiency of isoprene emission to decrease with increasing CO2 concentration. The model is shown to systematically outperform mo§dels that are in common use today. I also analysed the PPFD and temperature responses of carbon assimilation and isoprene emission as measured above the forest canopy. The model was upscaled and shown to reproduce key responses shown in two long-term flux monitoring datasets from temperate mixed forests. I discuss future research needs and the potential for this model to be further scaled up for global analyses.Open Acces

A fully integrated isoprenoid emissions model

The lack of a mechanistic basis has hampered modelling isoprene emission responses to environmental drivers, in particular the simulation of isoprene emissions under different CO₂ concentrations. Here, we advance previous semi-mechanistic model formulations by introducing a model that explicitly links electron availability for other purpose than carbon assimilation (or available energy for secondary metabolism processes; supply-constraint) and enzyme activity (capacity-constraint) to emissions. We furthermore investigate the sensitivity of the model to variations in photosynthetic and emission-specific parameters. By comparing species-specific simulations with experimental data, we demonstrate that differences in photosynthetic characteristics can explain inter-species differences in emissions. Interestingly, the seasonal development of emissions could also be explained to some degree by the change in energy supply from photosynthesis throughout the season. In addition, we show that the principal responses are not limited to isoprene but can be formulated to describe the emission of other light-dependent volatile species. The proposed model is suitable for implementation into regional and global models, particularly those that already provide species-specific photosynthesis estimates

A Fully integrated isoprenoid emissions model coupling emissions to photosynthetic characteristics

The lack of a mechanistic basis has hampered modelling isoprene emission responses to environmental drivers, in particular the simulation of isoprene emissions under different CO₂ concentrations. Here, we advance previous semi-mechanistic model formulations by introducing a model that explicitly links electron availability for other purpose than carbon assimilation (or available energy for secondary metabolism processes; supply-constraint) and enzyme activity (capacity-constraint) to emissions. We furthermore investigate the sensitivity of the model to variations in photosynthetic and emission-specific parameters. By comparing species-specific simulations with experimental data, we demonstrate that differences in photosynthetic characteristics can explain inter-species differences in emissions. Interestingly, the seasonal development of emissions could also be explained to some degree by the change in energy supply from photosynthesis throughout the season. In addition, we show that the principal responses are not limited to isoprene but can be formulated to describe the emission of other light-dependent volatile species. The proposed model is suitable for implementation into regional and global models, particularly those that already provide species-specific photosynthesis estimates.16 page(s

A unifying conceptual model for the environmental responses of isoprene emissions from plants.

Background and aimsIsoprene is the most important volatile organic compound emitted by land plants in terms of abundance and environmental effects. Controls on isoprene emission rates include light, temperature, water supply and CO2 concentration. A need to quantify these controls has long been recognized. There are already models that give realistic results, but they are complex, highly empirical and require separate responses to different drivers. This study sets out to find a simpler, unifying principle.MethodsA simple model is presented based on the idea of balancing demands for reducing power (derived from photosynthetic electron transport) in primary metabolism versus the secondary pathway that leads to the synthesis of isoprene. This model's ability to account for key features in a variety of experimental data sets is assessed.Key resultsThe model simultaneously predicts the fundamental responses observed in short-term experiments, namely: (1) the decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission; (2) a continued increase in isoprene emission with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at high PAR, after carbon assimilation has saturated; (3) a maximum of isoprene emission at low internal CO2 concentration (ci) and an asymptotic decline thereafter with increasing ci; (4) maintenance of high isoprene emissions when carbon assimilation is restricted by drought; and (5) a temperature optimum higher than that of photosynthesis, but lower than that of isoprene synthase activity.ConclusionsA simple model was used to test the hypothesis that reducing power available to the synthesis pathway for isoprene varies according to the extent to which the needs of carbon assimilation are satisfied. Despite its simplicity the model explains much in terms of the observed response of isoprene to external drivers as well as the observed decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission. The concept has the potential to improve global-scale modelling of vegetation isoprene emission

Vegetation responses to climate extremes recorded by remotely sensed atmospheric formaldehyde

International audienceAccurate monitoring of vegetation stress is required for better modelling and forecasting of primary production, in a world where heatwaves and droughts are expected to become increasingly prevalent. Variability in formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations in the troposphere is dominated by local emissions of short-lived biogenic (BVOC) and pyrogenic volatile organic compounds. BVOCs are emitted by plants in a rapid protective response to abiotic stress, mediated by the energetic status of leaves (the excess of reducing power when photosynthetic light and dark reactions are decoupled, as occurs when stomata close in response to water stress). Emissions also increase exponentially with leaf temperature. New analytical methods for the detection of spatiotemporally contiguous extremes in remote-sensing data are applied here to satellite-derived atmospheric HCHO columns. BVOC emissions are shown to play a central role in the formation of the largest positive HCHO anomalies. Although vegetation stress can be captured by various remotely sensed quantities, spaceborne HCHO emerges as the most consistent recorder of vegetation responses to the largest climate extremes, especially in forested regions

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

We project hydrological and ecological impacts in transient climate simulations at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using impacts models driven by new, higher-resolution (approximately 40km – 60km resolution) global atmospheric General Circulation Models driven by patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Temperature-related warm extremes become even warmer, while precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. Hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions, with increased river flooding risk and less severe low flows. However, there are regional uncertainties due to different climate models producing different outcomes, and even when a majority model consensus indicates higher low flows, decreased low flows are still simulated by some models. Risk assessments should therefore consider both wetter and drier outcomes. For terrestrial ecosystems, a key factor may be the level of CO2 concentration that accompanies a specific level of global warming.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet

Approximately 1–2% of net primary production by land plants is re-emitted to the atmosphere as isoprene and monoterpenes. These emissions play major roles in atmospheric chemistry and air pollution–climate interactions. Phenomenological models have been developed to predict their emission rates, but limited understanding of the function and regulation of these emissions has led to large uncertainties in model projections of air quality and greenhouse gas concentrations. We synthesize recent advances in diverse fields, from cell physiology to atmospheric remote sensing, and use this information to propose a simple conceptual model of volatile isoprenoid emission based on regulation of metabolism in the chloroplast. This may provide a robust foundation for scaling up emissions from the cellular to the global scale