Economic evaluation of alternative farm water sources in the claypan area of Illinois

The claypan area of Illinois is characterized by unreliable water supplies. In addition, water quality problems have recently been recognized in the form of widespread nitrate coliform contamination of water in private wells in Washington County. A ten-square mile area in this county was selected for study. The nature of present water supplies was described and the costs of six alternative supply systems were estimated: (1) present on-farm sources, (2) treatment of pond water, (3) combination of present on-farm sources plus hauling, (4) hauling all water, (5) purchasing water from nearby municipality via pipeline, (6) combination pipeline plus on-farm sources. The six alternatives were examined in terms of the net present value of costs associated with each alternative, considering a 40-year planning period. Although the present sources proved to be the least costly they are unsatisfactory for reasons of health and also reliability. Treatment of pond water was the least-cost source of meeting the quality requirements for water for the total area. However, the reliability of this source and questions of personal preference against drinking pond water may indicate a preference among some users for connection with a municipal system which was somewhat more expensive.U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorOpe

Topological regluing of rational functions

Regluing is a topological operation that helps to construct topological models for rational functions on the boundaries of certain hyperbolic components. It also has a holomorphic interpretation, with the flavor of infinite dimensional Thurston--Teichm\"uller theory. We will discuss a topological theory of regluing, and trace a direction in which a holomorphic theory can develop.Comment: 38 page

Feasibility study and design concept for an orbiting ice-penetrating radar sounder to characterize in three-dimensions the Europan ice mantle down to (and including) any ice/ocean interface

This report presents a radar sounding model based on the range of current working hypotheses for the nature of Europa's icy shell.Institute for Geophysic

M-CSF instructs myeloid lineage fate in single haematopoietic stem cells

Under stress conditions such as infection or inflammation the body rapidly needs to generate new blood cells that are adapted to the challenge. Haematopoietic cytokines are known to increase output of specific mature cells by affecting survival, expansion and differentiation of lineage-committed progenitors, but it has been debated whether long-term haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are susceptible to direct lineage-specifying effects of cytokines. Although genetic changes in transcription factor balance can sensitize HSCs to cytokine instruction, the initiation of HSC commitment is generally thought to be triggered by stochastic fluctuation in cell-intrinsic regulators such as lineage-specific transcription factors, leaving cytokines to ensure survival and proliferation of the progeny cells. Here we show that macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF, also called CSF1), a myeloid cytokine released during infection and inflammation, can directly induce the myeloid master regulator PU.1 and instruct myeloid cell-fate change in mouse HSCs, independently of selective survival or proliferation. Video imaging and single-cell gene expression analysis revealed that stimulation of highly purified HSCs with M-CSF in culture resulted in activation of the PU.1 promoter and an increased number of PU.1(+) cells with myeloid gene signature and differentiation potential. In vivo, high systemic levels of M-CSF directly stimulated M-CSF-receptor-dependent activation of endogenous PU.1 protein in single HSCs and induced a PU.1-dependent myeloid differentiation preference. Our data demonstrate that lineage-specific cytokines can act directly on HSCs in vitro and in vivo to instruct a change of cell identity. This fundamentally changes the current view of how HSCs respond to environmental challenge and implicates stress-induced cytokines as direct instructors of HSC fate

Hull Consistency Under Monotonicity

International audienceWe prove that hull consistency for a system of equations or inequalities can be achieved in polynomial time providing that the underlying functions are monotone with respect to each variable. This result holds including when variables have multiple occurrences in the expressions of the functions, which is usually a pitfall for interval-based contractors. For a given constraint, an optimal contractor can thus be enforced quickly under monotonicity and the practical significance of this theoretical result is illustrated on a simple example

Homologous Flares and Magnetic Field Topology in Active Region NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003

We present and interpret observations of two morphologically homologous flares that occurred in active region (AR) NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003. Both flares displayed four homologous H-alpha ribbons and were both accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The central flare ribbons were located at the site of an emerging bipole in the center of the active region. The negative polarity of this bipole fragmented in two main pieces, one rotating around the positive polarity by ~ 110 deg within 32 hours. We model the coronal magnetic field and compute its topology, using as boundary condition the magnetogram closest in time to each flare. In particular, we calculate the location of quasiseparatrix layers (QSLs) in order to understand the connectivity between the flare ribbons. Though several polarities were present in AR 10501, the global magnetic field topology corresponds to a quadrupolar magnetic field distribution without magnetic null points. For both flares, the photospheric traces of QSLs are similar and match well the locations of the four H-alpha ribbons. This globally unchanged topology and the continuous shearing by the rotating bipole are two key factors responsible for the flare homology. However, our analyses also indicate that different magnetic connectivity domains of the quadrupolar configuration become unstable during each flare, so that magnetic reconnection proceeds differently in both events.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, Solar Physics (accepted

A Quantitative Model of Energy Release and Heating by Time-dependent, Localized Reconnection in a Flare with a Thermal Loop-top X-ray Source

We present a quantitative model of the magnetic energy stored and then released through magnetic reconnection for a flare on 26 Feb 2004. This flare, well observed by RHESSI and TRACE, shows evidence of non-thermal electrons only for a brief, early phase. Throughout the main period of energy release there is a super-hot (T>30 MK) plasma emitting thermal bremsstrahlung atop the flare loops. Our model describes the heating and compression of such a source by localized, transient magnetic reconnection. It is a three-dimensional generalization of the Petschek model whereby Alfven-speed retraction following reconnection drives supersonic inflows parallel to the field lines, which form shocks heating, compressing, and confining a loop-top plasma plug. The confining inflows provide longer life than a freely-expanding or conductively-cooling plasma of similar size and temperature. Superposition of successive transient episodes of localized reconnection across a current sheet produces an apparently persistent, localized source of high-temperature emission. The temperature of the source decreases smoothly on a time scale consistent with observations, far longer than the cooling time of a single plug. Built from a disordered collection of small plugs, the source need not have the coherent jet-like structure predicted by steady-state reconnection models. This new model predicts temperatures and emission measure consistent with the observations of 26 Feb 2004. Furthermore, the total energy released by the flare is found to be roughly consistent with that predicted by the model. Only a small fraction of the energy released appears in the super-hot source at any one time, but roughly a quarter of the flare energy is thermalized by the reconnection shocks over the course of the flare. All energy is presumed to ultimately appear in the lower-temperature T<20 MK, post-flare loops

The Ekpyrotic Universe: Colliding Branes and the Origin of the Hot Big Bang

We propose a cosmological scenario in which the hot big bang universe is produced by the collision of a brane in the bulk space with a bounding orbifold plane, beginning from an otherwise cold, vacuous, static universe. The model addresses the cosmological horizon, flatness and monopole problems and generates a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of density perturbations without invoking superluminal expansion (inflation). The scenario relies, instead, on physical phenomena that arise naturally in theories based on extra dimensions and branes. As an example, we present our scenario predominantly within the context of heterotic M-theory. A prediction that distinguishes this scenario from standard inflationary cosmology is a strongly blue gravitational wave spectrum, which has consequences for microwave background polarization experiments and gravitational wave detectors.Comment: 67 pages, 4 figures. v2,v3: minor corrections, references adde

Multicenter Development and Validation of a Model for Predicting Retention in Care Among People with HIV

Predictive analytics can be used to identify people with HIV currently retained in care who are at risk for future disengagement from care, allowing for prioritization of retention interventions. We utilized machine learning methods to develop predictive models of retention in care, defined as no more than a 12 month gap between HIV care appointments in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort. Data were split longitudinally into derivation and validation cohorts. We created logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and gradient boosted machine (XGB) models within a discrete-time survival analysis framework and compared their performance to a baseline model that included only demographics, viral suppression, and retention history. 21,267 Patients with 507,687 visits from 2007 to 2018 were included. The LR model outperformed the baseline model (AUC 0.68 [0.67–0.70] vs. 0.60 [0.59–0.62], P < 0.001). RF and XGB models had similar performance to the LR model. Top features in the LR model included retention history, age, and viral suppression