Longitudinal study of computerised cardiotocography in early fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVES: To explore if in early fetal growth restriction (FGR) the longitudinal pattern of short-term fetal heart rate (FHR) variation (STV) can be used for identifying imminent fetal distress and if abnormalities of FHR registration associate with two-year infant outcome. METHODS: The original TRUFFLE study assessed if in early FGR the use of ductus venosus Doppler pulsatility index (DVPI), in combination with a safety-net of very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations, could improve two-year infant survival without neurological impairment in comparison to computerised cardiotocography (cCTG) with STV calculation only. For this secondary analysis we selected women, who delivered before 32 weeks, and who had consecutive STV data for more than 3 days before delivery, and known infant two-year outcome data. Women who received corticosteroids within 3 days of delivery were excluded. Individual regression line algorithms of all STV values except the last one were calculated. Life table analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to calculate the day by day risk for a low STV or very low STV and / or FHR decelerations (DVPI group safety-net) and to assess which parameters were associated to this risk. Furthermore, it was assessed if STV pattern, lowest STV value or recurrent FHR decelerations were associated with two-year infant outcome. RESULTS: One hundred and fourty-nine women matched the inclusion criteria. Using the individual STV regression lines prediction of a last STV below the cCTG-group cut-off had a sensitivity of 0.42 and specificity of 0.91. For each day after inclusion the median risk for a low STV(cCTG criteria) was 4% (Interquartile range (IQR) 2% to 7%) and for a very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations (DVPI safety-net criteria) 5% (IQR 4 to 7%). Measures of STV pattern, fetal Doppler (arterial or venous), birthweight MoM or gestational age did not improve daily risk prediction usefully. There was no association of STV regression coefficients, a last low STV or /and recurrent decelerations with short or long term infant outcomes. CONCLUSION: The TRUFFLE study showed that a strategy of DVPI monitoring with a safety-net delivery indication of very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations could increase infant survival without neurological impairment at two years. This post-hoc analysis demonstrates that in early FGR the day by day risk of an abnormal cCTG as defined by the DVPI protocol safety-net criteria is 5%, and that prediction of this is not possible. This supports the rationale for cCTG monitoring more often than daily in these high-risk fetuses. Low STV and/or recurrent decelerations were not associated with adverse infant outcome and it appears safe to delay intervention until such abnormalities occur, as long as DVPI is in the normal range

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Using the Bayley-III to assess neurodevelopmental delay: which cut-off should be used?

Background: As the latest edition of the Bayley Scales (Bayley-III) produces higher scores than its predecessor (BSID-II), there is uncertainty about how to classify moderate–severe neurodevelopmental delay. We have investigated agreement between classifications of delay made using the BSID-II and Bayley-III. Methods: BSID-II Mental Development Index (MDI) and Bayley-III cognitive and language scales were administered in 185 extremely preterm (<27 wk) children. A combined Bayley-III score (CB-III) was computed. Agreement between delay classified using MDI scores <70 and various Bayley-III cut-offs was assessed. Results: Bayley-III cognitive and language scores were close to the normative mean and were higher than BSID-II MDI scores. Nineteen (10.2%) children had MDI <70. Bayley-III scores <70 significantly underestimated the proportion with MDI <70. Bayley-III cognitive and language scores <85 had 99% agreement with MDI <70 and underestimated delay by 1.1%. CB-III scores <80 had 98% agreement and produced the same proportion with delay. Conclusion: Bayley-III cognitive and language scores <85 or CB-III scores <80 provide the best definition of moderate-severe neurodevelopmental delay for equivalence with MDI <70. CB-III scores have the advantage of producing a single continuous outcome measure but require further validation. The relative accuracy of both tests for predicting long-term outcomes requires investigation. The Bayley Scales are the most frequently used tests in infant developmental assessment. The second edition of the test, the BSID-II (1), was widely used as an outcome measure in epidemiological studies and randomized controlled trials of infant interventions. The sound psychometric properties of the BSID-II Mental Development Index (MDI), a composite measure of nonverbal cognitive and language development, engendered much professional confidence and the MDI rapidly became the gold standard for assessing neurodevelopmental outcome (2). In 2006, the third edition, the Bayley-III (3), was published which has separate cognitive and language scales. Although strong correlations are reported between MDI scores and Bayley-III cognitive and language scores (4,5), concerns have arisen over how to interpret test scores. Bayley-III scores are up to 10 points higher than MDI scores (3,4,5,6). Mean scores of control groups are of a similar magnitude above the normative mean (7,8) and those of clinical populations are higher than anticipated (4,5,8). Thus there is concern that the Bayley-III underestimates developmental delay using conventional cut-offs (4,6,8,9,10,11). However, as yet it is not clear whether the Bayley-III underestimates developmental delay or the BSID-II overestimated it. These issues have significant implications for research and clinical practice. Children with developmental problems may not be identified using the Bayley-III and may thus fail to be referred for intervention. For research, the underestimation of delay leads to reduced statistical power in randomized controlled trials where sample sizes have been calculated using prevalence estimates obtained from studies using the MDI. Some groups have opted to raise Bayley-III SD-banded cut-offs by 15-points (1 SD) to retain power for primary outcomes and to identify children in need of intervention (12). It has also been suggested that raising the cut-off by 10-points maximizes agreement with the MDI (5). However, there still remains the problem of how to use Bayley-III scores to provide a relevant and practical composite outcome for identifying delay in research (13). To address these issues, we have investigated the predictive value of different Bayley-III cut-offs for classifying neurodevelopmental delay as measured by the BSID-II MDI in children born extremely preterm

Longitudinal study of computerized cardiotocography in early fetal growth restriction

Objectives: To explore whether, in early fetal growth restriction (FGR), the longitudinal pattern of fetal heart rate (FHR) short-term variation (STV) can be used to identify imminent fetal distress and whether abnormalities of FHR recordings are associated with 2-year infant outcome. Methods: The original TRUFFLE study assessed whether, in early FGR, delivery based on ductus venosus (DV) Doppler pulsatility index (PI), in combination with safety-net criteria of very low STV on cardiotocography (CTG) and/or recurrent FHR decelerations, could improve 2-year infant survival without neurological impairment in comparison with delivery based on CTG monitoring only. This was a secondary analysis of women who delivered before 32 weeks and had consecutive STV data recorded > 3 days before delivery and known infant outcome at 2 years of age. Women who received corticosteroids within 3 days of delivery were excluded. Individual regression line algorithms of all STV values, except the last one before delivery, were calculated. Life tables and Cox regression analysis were used to calculate the daily risk for low STV or very low STV and/or FHR decelerations (below DV group safety-net criteria) and to assess which parameters were associated with this risk. Furthermore, it was assessed whether STV pattern, last STV value or recurrent FHR decelerations were associated with 2-year infant outcome. Results: One hundred and forty-nine women from the original TRUFFLE study met the inclusion criteria. Using the individual STV regression lines, prediction of a last STV below the cut-off used by the CTG monitoring group had sensitivity of 42% and specificity of 91%. For each day after study inclusion, the median risk for low STV (CTG group cut-off) was 4% (interquartile range (IQR), 2–7%) and for very low STV and/or recurrent FHR decelerations (below DV group safety-net criteria) was 5% (IQR, 4–7%). Measures of STV pattern, fetal Doppler (arterial or venous), birth-weight multiples of the median and gestational age did not usefully improve daily risk prediction. There was no association of STV regression coefficients, a low last STV and/or recurrent FHR decelerations with short- or long-term infant outcomes. Conclusion: The TRUFFLE study showed that a strategy of DV monitoring with safety-net criteria of very low STV and/or recurrent FHR decelerations for delivery indication could increase 2-year infant survival without neurological impairment. This post-hoc analysis demonstrates that, in early FGR, the daily risk of abnormal CTG, as defined by the DV group safety-net criteria, is 5%, and that prediction is not possible. This supports the rationale for CTG monitoring more often than daily in these high-risk fetuses. Low STV and/or recurrent FHR decelerations were not associated with adverse infant outcome and it appears safe to delay intervention until such abnormalities occur, as long as DV-PI is within normal range

Ward & Branstetter ESM figures from The acacia ants revisited: convergent evolution and biogeographic context in an iconic ant/plant mutualism

Electronic supplementary material, figures S1-S