Cohort Profile: The Flu Watch Study

Influenza is a common, highly contagious respiratory virus which infects all age groups, causing a range of outcomes from asymptomatic infection and mild respiratory disease to severe respiratory disease and death.1 If infected, the adaptive immune system produces a humoral (antibody) and cell-mediated (T cell) immune response to fight the infection.2 Influenza viruses continually evolve through antigenic drift, resulting in slightly different ‘seasonal’ influenza strains circulating each year. Population-level antibody immunity to these seasonal viruses builds up over time, so in any given season only a proportion of the population is susceptible to the circulating strains. Occasionally, influenza A viruses evolve rapidly through antigenic shift by swapping genes with influenza viruses usually circulating in animals. This process creates an immunologically distinct virus to which the population may have little to no antibody immunity. The virus can result in a pandemic if a large portion of the population is susceptible and the virus is easily spread

Alpha-band rhythms in visual task performance: phase-locking by rhythmic sensory stimulation

Oscillations are an important aspect of neuronal activity. Interestingly, oscillatory patterns are also observed in behaviour, such as in visual performance measures after the presentation of a brief sensory event in the visual or another modality. These oscillations in visual performance cycle at the typical frequencies of brain rhythms, suggesting that perception may be closely linked to brain oscillations. We here investigated this link for a prominent rhythm of the visual system (the alpha-rhythm, 8-12 Hz) by applying rhythmic visual stimulation at alpha-frequency (10.6 Hz), known to lead to a resonance response in visual areas, and testing its effects on subsequent visual target discrimination. Our data show that rhythmic visual stimulation at 10.6 Hz: 1) has specific behavioral consequences, relative to stimulation at control frequencies (3.9 Hz, 7.1 Hz, 14.2 Hz), and 2) leads to alpha-band oscillations in visual performance measures, that 3) correlate in precise frequency across individuals with resting alpha-rhythms recorded over parieto-occipital areas. The most parsimonious explanation for these three findings is entrainment (phase-locking) of ongoing perceptually relevant alpha-band brain oscillations by rhythmic sensory events. These findings are in line with occipital alpha-oscillations underlying periodicity in visual performance, and suggest that rhythmic stimulation at frequencies of intrinsic brain-rhythms can be used to reveal influences of these rhythms on task performance to study their functional roles

Long-Term Functionality of Rural Water Services in Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding the Dynamic Interaction of Causal Factors

Research has shown that sustainability of rural water infrastructure in developing countries is largely affected by the dynamic and systemic interactions of technical, social, financial, institutional, and environmental factors that can lead to premature water system failure. This research employs systems dynamic modeling, which uses feedback mechanisms to understand how these factors interact dynamically to influence long-term rural water system functionality. To do this, the research first identified and aggregated key factors from literature, then asked water sector experts to indicate the polarity and strength between factors through Delphi and cross impact survey questionnaires, and finally used system dynamics modeling to identify and prioritize feedback mechanisms. The resulting model identified 101 feedback mechanisms that were dominated primarily by three and four-factor loops that contained some combination of the factors: Water System Functionality, Community, Financial, Government, Management, and Technology. These feedback mechanisms were then scored and prioritized, with the most dominant feedback mechanism identified as Water System Functionality – Community – Finance – Management. This research offers insight into the dynamic interaction of factors impacting sustainability of rural water infrastructure through the identification of these feedback mechanisms and makes a compelling case for future research to longitudinally investigate the interaction of these factors in various contexts

Evaluation of an influenza-like illness case definition in the diagnosis of influenza among patients with acute febrile illness in cambodia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza-like illness (ILI) is often defined as fever (>38.0°C) with cough or sore throat. In this study, we tested the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this case definition in a Cambodia patient population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Passive clinic-based surveillance was established at nine healthcare centers to identify the causes of acute undifferentiated fever in patients aged two years and older seeking treatment. Fever was defined as tympanic membrane temperature >38°C lasting more than 24 hours and less than 10 days. Influenza virus infections were identified by polymerase chain reaction.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From July 2008 to December 2008, 2,639 patients were enrolled. From 884 (33%) patients positive for influenza, 652 presented with ILI and 232 acute fever patients presented without ILI. Analysis by age group identified no significant differences between influenza positive patients from the two groups. Positive predictive values (PPVs) varied during the course of the influenza season and among age groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The ILI case definition can be used to identify a significant percentage of patients with influenza infection during the influenza season in Cambodia, assisting healthcare providers in its diagnosis and treatment. However, testing samples based on the criteria of fever alone increased our case detection by 34%.</p

Respiratory viral pathogens among Singapore military servicemen 2009 - 2012: Epidemiology and clinical characteristics

10.1186/1471-2334-14-204BMC Infectious Diseases141-BIDM

A clinical diagnostic model for predicting influenza among young adult military personnel with febrile respiratory illness in Singapore

10.1371/journal.pone.0017468PLoS ONE63

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS: We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS: The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS: We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficia

A Diverse Group of Previously Unrecognized Human Rhinoviruses Are Common Causes of Respiratory Illnesses in Infants

Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) are the most prevalent human pathogens, and consist of 101 serotypes that are classified into groups A and B according to sequence variations. HRV infections cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infection to severe lower respiratory symptoms. Defining the role of specific strains in various HRV illnesses has been difficult because traditional serology, which requires viral culture and neutralization tests using 101 serotype-specific antisera, is insensitive and laborious.To directly type HRVs in nasal secretions of infants with frequent respiratory illnesses, we developed a sensitive molecular typing assay based on phylogenetic comparisons of a 260-bp variable sequence in the 5' noncoding region with homologous sequences of the 101 known serotypes. Nasal samples from 26 infants were first tested with a multiplex PCR assay for respiratory viruses, and HRV was the most common virus found (108 of 181 samples). Typing was completed for 101 samples and 103 HRVs were identified. Surprisingly, 54 (52.4%) HRVs did not match any of the known serotypes and had 12-35% nucleotide divergence from the nearest reference HRVs. Of these novel viruses, 9 strains (17 HRVs) segregated from HRVA, HRVB and human enterovirus into a distinct genetic group ("C"). None of these new strains could be cultured in traditional cell lines.By molecular analysis, over 50% of HRV detected in sick infants were previously unrecognized strains, including 9 strains that may represent a new HRV group. These findings indicate that the number of HRV strains is considerably larger than the 101 serotypes identified with traditional diagnostic techniques, and provide evidence of a new HRV group