High Effective Coverage of Vector Control Interventions in Children After Achieving Low Malaria Transmission in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

\ud \ud Formerly a high malaria transmission area, Zanzibar is now targeting malaria elimination. A major challenge is to avoid resurgence of malaria, the success of which includes maintaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions such as bed nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS). In this study, caretakers' continued use of preventive measures for their children is evaluated, following a sharp reduction in malaria transmission. A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted in June 2009 in North A and Micheweni districts in Zanzibar. Households were randomly selected using two-stage cluster sampling. Interviews were conducted with 560 caretakers of under-five-year old children, who were asked about perceptions on the malaria situation, vector control, household assets, and intention for continued use of vector control as malaria burden further decreases. Effective coverage of vector control interventions for under-five children remains high, although most caretakers (65%; 363/560) did not perceive malaria as presently being a major health issue. Seventy percent (447/643) of the under-five children slept under a long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) and 94% (607/643) were living in houses targeted with IRS. In total, 98% (628/643) of the children were covered by at least one of the vector control interventions. Seasonal bed-net use for children was reported by 25% (125/508) of caretakers of children who used bed nets. A high proportion of caretakers (95%; 500/524) stated that they intended to continue using preventive measures for their under-five children as malaria burden further reduces. Malaria risk perceptions and different perceptions of vector control were not found to be significantly associated with LLIN effective coverage While the majority of caretakers felt that malaria had been reduced in Zanzibar, effective coverage of vector control interventions remained high. Caretakers appreciated the interventions and recognized the value of sustaining their use. Thus, sustaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions, which is crucial for reaching malaria elimination in Zanzibar, can be achieved by maintaining effective delivery of these interventions

Reversibility of Frailty After Bridge-to-Transplant Ventricular Assist Device Implantation or Heart Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: We recently reported that frailty is independently predictive of increased mortality in patients with advanced heart failure referred for heart transplantation (HTx). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of frailty on short-term outcomes after bridge-to-transplant ventricular assist device (BTT-VAD) implantation and/or HTx and to determine if frailty is reversible after these procedures. METHODS: Between August 2013 and August 2016, 100 of 126 consecutive patients underwent frailty assessment using Fried's Frailty Phenotype before surgical intervention: 40 (21 nonfrail, 19 frail) BTT-VAD and 77 (60 nonfrail, 17 frail) HTx-including 17 of the 40 BTT-VAD supported patients. Postprocedural survival, intubation time, intensive care unit, and hospital length of stay were compared between frail and nonfrail groups. Twenty-six frail patients were reassessed at 2 months or longer postintervention. RESULTS: Frail patients had lower survival (63 ± 10% vs 94 ± 3% at 1 year, P = 0.012) and experienced significantly longer intensive care unit (11 vs 5 days, P = 0.002) and hospital (49 vs 25 days, P = 0.003) length of stay after surgical intervention compared with nonfrail patients. Twelve of 13 frail patients improved their frailty score after VAD (4.0 ± 0.8 to 1.4 ± 1.1, P < 0.001) and 12 of 13 frail patients improved their frailty score after HTx (3.2 ± 0.4 to 0.9 ± 0.9, P < 0.001). Handgrip strength and depression improved postintervention. Only a slight improvement in cognitive function was seen postintervention. CONCLUSIONS: Frail patients with advanced heart failure experience increased mortality and morbidity after surgical intervention with BTT-VAD or HTx. Among those who survive frailty is partly or completely reversible underscoring the importance of considering this factor as a dynamic not fixed entity

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

SPECULOOS exoplanet search and its prototype on TRAPPIST

One of the most significant goals of modern science is establishing whether life exists around other suns. The most direct path towards its achievement is the detection and atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with potentially habitable surface conditions. The nearest ultracool dwarfs (UCDs), i.e. very-low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with effective temperatures lower than 2700 K, represent a unique opportunity to reach this goal within the next decade. The potential of the transit method for detecting potentially habitable Earth-sized planets around these objects is drastically increased compared to Earth-Sun analogs. Furthermore, only a terrestrial planet transiting a nearby UCD would be amenable for a thorough atmospheric characterization, including the search for possible biosignatures, with near-future facilities such as the James Webb Space Telescope. In this chapter, we first describe the physical properties of UCDs as well as the unique potential they offer for the detection of potentially habitable Earth-sized planets suitable for atmospheric characterization. Then, we present the SPECULOOS ground-based transit survey, that will search for Earth-sized planets transiting the nearest UCDs, as well as its prototype survey on the TRAPPIST telescopes. We conclude by discussing the prospects offered by the recent detection by this prototype survey of a system of seven temperate Earth-sized planets transiting a nearby UCD, TRAPPIST-1.Comment: Submitted as a chapter in the "Handbook of Exoplanets" (editors: H. Deeg & J.A. Belmonte; Section Editor: N. Narita). 16 pages, 4 figure

A canonical correlation analysis of the association between carcass and ham traits in pigs used to produce dry-cured ham

The association between carcass and ham traits in a pig population used to produce dry-cured ham was studied using canonical correlation analysis. The carcass traits examined were hot carcass weight (HCW), backfat thickness (BT) and loin depth (LD), and the ham traits studied were gross ham weight (GHW), trimmed ham weight (THW), ham inner layer fat thickness (HIFT), ham outer layer fat thickness (HOFT), pH (pH) and the Göfo value. Carcass and ham traits are not independent. The canonical correlations (r) between the carcass and ham traits at 130 kg were 0.77, 0.24 and 0.20 for the first, second and third canonical pair, respectively, and were all significant (p < 0.01) by the Wilks test. The corresponding canonical correlations between the three canonical variate pairs for the carcass and ham traits at 160 kg were 0.88, 0.42 and 0.14, respectively (p < 0.05 for all, except the third). The correlations between the traits and their canonical variate showed an association among HCW, GHW and THW, and between BT and HOFT. These results indicate that carcass traits should be used to cull pigs that are not suitable for dry-cured ham production

Lead exposure in adult males in urban Transvaal Province, South Africa during the apartheid era

Human exposure to lead is a substantial public health hazard worldwide and is particularly problematic in the Republic of South Africa given the country’s late cessation of leaded petrol. Lead exposure is associated with a number of serious health issues and diseases including developmental and cognitive deficiency, hypertension and heart disease. Understanding the distribution of lifetime lead burden within a given population is critical for reducing exposure rates. Femoral bone from 101 deceased adult males living in urban Transvaal Province (now Gauteng Province), South Africa between 1960 and 1998 were analyzed for lead concentration by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Of the 72 black and 29 white individuals sampled, chronic lead exposure was apparent in nearly all individuals. White males showed significantly higher median bone lead concentration (ME = 10.04 µg·g−1), than black males (ME = 3.80 µg·g−1) despite higher socioeconomic status. Bone lead concentration covaries significantly, though weakly, with individual age. There was no significant temporal trend in bone lead concentration. These results indicate that long-term low to moderate lead exposure is the historical norm among South African males. Unexpectedly, this research indicates that white males in the sample population were more highly exposed to lead

Systematic Evaluation of the Descriptive and Predictive Performance of Paediatric Morphine Population Models

Purpose: A framework for the evaluation of paediatric population models is proposed and applied to two different paediatric population pharmacokinetic models for morphine. One covariate model was based on a systematic covariate analysis, the other on fixed allometric scaling principles. Methods: The six evaluation criteria in the framework were 1) number of parameters and condition number, 2) numerical diagnostics, 3) prediction-based diagnostics, 4) η-shrinkage, 5) simulation-based diagnostics, 6) diagnostics of individual and population parameter estimates versus covariates, including measurements of bias and precision of the population values compared to the observed individual values. The framework entails both an internal and external model evaluation procedure. Results: The application of the framework to the two models resulted in the detection of overparameterization and misleading diagnostics based on individual predictions caused by high shrinkage. The diagnostic of individual and population parameter estimates versus covariates proved to be highly informative in assessing obtained covariate relationships. Based on the framework, the systematic covariate model proved to be superior over the fixed allometric model in terms of predictive performance. Conclusions: The proposed framework is suitable for the evaluation of paediatric (covariate) models and should be applied to corroborate the descriptive and predictive properties of these models