Spatial Endogenous Fire Risk and Efficient Fuel Management and Timber Harvest

This paper integrates a spatial fire behavior model and a stochastic dynamic optimization model to determine the optimal spatial pattern of fuel management and timber harvest. Each years fire season causes the loss of forest values and lives in the western US. This paper uses a multi-plot analysis and incorporates uncertainty about fire ignition locations and weather conditions to inform policy by examining the role of spatial endogenous risk - where management actions on one stand affect fire risk in that and adjacent stands. The results support two current strategies, but question two other strategies, for managing forests with fire risk.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Sex estimation of teeth at different developmental stages using dimorphic enamel peptide analysis

Objectives This study tests, for the first time, the applicability of a new method of sex estimation utilizing enamel peptides on a sample of deciduous and permanent teeth at different stages of mineralization, from nonadults of unknown sex, including perinates. Materials and methods A total of 43 teeth from 29 nonadult individuals aged from 40 gestational weeks to 19 years old were analyzed. The sample included pairs of fully mineralized and just developing teeth from the same individual. The individuals were from four archaeological sites in England: Piddington (1st–2nd centuries AD), Coach Lane, Victoria Gate, and Fewston (all 18th–19th centuries). A method that identifies sex chromosome‐linked isoforms of the peptide amelogenin from human tooth enamel was applied. The method utilizes a minimally destructive acid etching procedure and subsequent nano liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Results It was possible to determine the sex of 28 of the nonadult individuals sampled (males = 20, females = 8, undetermined = 1). Only one sample failed (CL9), due to insufficient mineralization of the sampled tooth enamel. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD021683. Discussion Sufficient peptide material to determine sex can be recovered even from the crowns of developing perinatal teeth that are not fully mineralized. The minimally destructive and inexpensive (compared to ancient DNA) nature of this procedure has significant implications for bioarchaeological studies of infancy and childhood

A spatial, simultaneous model of social capital and poverty

This study explores the interrelationship between social capital and poverty, a negative indicator of well-being, in the Western United States. Econometric models that account for the endogeneity of poverty and social capital, spatial dependence, and cross-equation error correlation were used to explore two questions: is the presence of social capital associated with reduced poverty levels and does the presence of poverty impact social capital stocks? We found evidence that communities with higher social capital levels tend to have lower poverty rates and that poverty may pose barriers to social capital formation. This suggests that policies to reduce poverty will be more effective if coupled with policies to support social capital formation. The study's findings are particularly salient for communities in persistent poverty. These results emerged only after accounting for endogeneity and spatial relationships. Because many factors contributing to well-being are jointly determined with well-being and indicators of well-being are frequently spatially clustered, this situation is likely to be more common than has been typically recognized in the literature

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.Keywords: bio-economic modelling, wildland fire management, forest economics, forest fire polic

Seasonal and predator-prey effects on circadian activity of free-ranging mammals revealed by camera traps

Endogenous circadian and seasonal activity patterns are adapted to facilitate effective utilisation of environmental resources. Activity patterns are shaped by physiological constraints, evolutionary history, circadian and seasonal changes and may be influenced by other factors, including ecological competition and interspecific interactions. Remote-sensing camera traps allow the collection of species presence data throughout the 24 h period and for almost indefinite lengths of time. Here, we collate data from 10 separate camera trap surveys in order to describe circadian and seasonal activity patterns of 10 mammal species, and, in particular, to evaluate interspecific (dis)associations of five predator-prey pairs. We recorded 8,761 independent detections throughout Northern Ireland. Badgers, foxes, pine martens and wood mice were nocturnal; European and Irish hares and European rabbits were crepuscular; fallow deer and grey and red squirrels were diurnal. All species exhibited significant seasonal variation in activity relative to the timing of sunrise/sunset. Foxes in particular were more crepuscular from spring to autumn and hares more diurnal. Lagged regression analyses of predator-prey activity patterns between foxes and prey (hares, rabbits and wood mice), and pine marten and prey (squirrel and wood mice) revealed significant annual and seasonal cross-correlations. We found synchronised activity patterns between foxes and hares, rabbits and wood mice and pine marten and wood mice, and asynchrony between squirrels and pine martens. Here, we provide fundamental ecological data on endemic, invasive, pest and commercially valuable species in Ireland, as well as those of conservation importance and those that could harbour diseases of economic and/or zoonotic relevance. Our data will be valuable in informing the development of appropriate species-specific methodologies and processes and associated policies

APC/C-Mediated Degradation of dsRNA-Binding Protein 4 (DRB4) Involved in RNA Silencing

Background: Selective protein degradation via the ubiquitin-26S proteasome is a major mechanism underlying DNA replication and cell division in all Eukaryotes. In particular, the APC/C (Anaphase Promoting Complex or Cyclosome) is a master ubiquitin protein ligase (E3) that targets regulatory proteins for degradation allowing sister chromatid separation and exit from mitosis. Interestingly, recent work also indicates that the APC/C remains active in differentiated animal and plant cells. However, its role in post-mitotic cells remains elusive and only a few substrates have been characterized. Methodology/Principal Findings: In order to identify novel APC/C substrates, we performed a yeast two-hybrid screen using as the bait Arabidopsis APC10/DOC1, one core subunit of the APC/C, which is required for substrate recruitment. This screen identified DRB4, a double-stranded RNA binding protein involved in the biogenesis of different classes of small RNA (sRNA). This protein interaction was further confirmed in vitro and in plant cells. Moreover, APC10 interacts with DRB4 through the second dsRNA binding motif (dsRBD2) of DRB4, which is also required for its homodimerization and binding to its Dicer partner DCL4. We further showed that DRB4 protein accumulates when the proteasome is inactivated and, most importantly, we found that DRB4 stability depends on APC/C activity. Hence, depletion of Arabidopsis APC/C activity by RNAi leads to a strong accumulation of endogenous DRB4, far beyond its normal level of accumulation. However, we could not detect any defects in sRNA production in lines where DRB4 was overexpressed

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered

Using appreciative inquiry to develop, implement and evaluate a multi-organisation ‘Cultivating Compassion’ programme for health professionals and support staff

The ‘Cultivating Compassion’ project was developed in response to a research and innovation call relating to compassion training for National Health Service staff in the South East of England. The project aims included the following: the use of Appreciative Inquiry to develop, implement and evaluate a sustainable and evidence-based programme of compassion awareness training through engaging with a diverse group of health professionals and support staff; an evaluation of a ‘train the trainers’ approach; and an evaluation of ‘compassion lead’ roles and a multi-modal compassion toolkit. The project team included academics from two universities and one medical school, NHS staff from three separate organisations and service users. The participants recruited to the study included doctors, nurses, receptionists, chaplains and others working in close contact with service users from within four NHS organisations in the South East of England. The main findings from the project using thematic analysis from participant focus groups and interviews identified project enablers and inhibitors, the value of project resources, and shifts in perspectives. Project conclusions highlighted the importance of effective senior-level support and organisational leadership in cultivating compassion within a healthcare organisation and the importance of the integration of compassion-promoting resources within existing staff development initiatives