A deep learning framework for contingent liabilities risk management : predicting Brazilian labor court decisions

Estimar o resultado de um processo em litígio é crucial para muitas organizações. Uma aplicação específica são os "Passivos Contingenciais", que se referem a passivos que podem ou não ocorrer dependendo do resultado de um processo judicial em litígio. A metodologia tradicional para estimar essa probabilidade baseia-se na opinião de um advogado quem determina a possibilidade de um processo judicial ser perdido a partir de uma avaliação quantitativa. Esta tese apresenta a um modelo matemático baseado numa arquitetura de Deep Learning cujo objetivo é estimar a probabilidade de ganho ou perda de um processo de litígio, principalmente para ser utilizada na estimação de Passivos Contingenciais. A arquitetura, diferentemente do método tradicional, oferece um maior grau de confiança ao prever o resultado de um processo legal em termos de probabilidade e com um tempo de processamento de segundos. Além do resultado primário, a arquitetura estima uma amostra dos casos mais semelhantes ao processo estimado, que servem de apoio para a realização de estratégias de litígio. Nossa arquitetura foi testada em duas bases de dados de processos legais: (1) o Tribunal Europeu de Direitos Humanos (ECHR) e (2) o 4º Tribunal Regional do Trabalho brasileiro (4TRT). Ela estimou de acordo com nosso conhecimento, o melhor desempenho já publicado (precisão = 0,906) na base de dados da ECHR, uma coleção amplamente utilizada de processos legais, e é o primeiro trabalho a aplicar essa metodologia em um tribunal de trabalho brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que a arquitetura é uma alternativa adequada a ser utilizada contra o método tradicional de estimação do desfecho de um processo em litígio realizado por advogados. Finalmente, validamos nossos resultados com especialistas que confirmaram as possibilidades promissoras da arquitetura. Assim, nos incentivamos os académicos a continuar desenvolvendo pesquisas sobre modelagem matemática na área jurídica, pois é um tema emergente com um futuro promissor e aos usuários a utilizar ferramentas baseadas como a desenvolvida em nosso trabalho, pois fornecem vantagens substanciais em termos de precisão e velocidade sobre os métodos convencionais.Estimating the likely outcome of a litigation process is crucial for many organizations. A specific application is the “Contingents Liabilities,” which refers to liabilities that may or may not occur depending on the result of a pending litigation process (lawsuit). The traditional methodology for estimating this likelihood is based on the opinion from the lawyer’s experience which is based on a qualitative appreciation. This dissertation presents a mathematical modeling framework based on a Deep Learning architecture that estimates the probability outcome of a litigation process (accepted & not accepted) with a particular use on Contingent Liabilities. The framework offers a degree of confidence by describing how likely an event will occur in terms of probability and provides results in seconds. Besides the primary outcome, it offers a sample of the most similar cases to the estimated lawsuit that serve as support to perform litigation strategies. We tested our framework in two litigation process databases from: (1) the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and (2) the Brazilian 4th regional labor court. Our framework achieved to our knowledge the best-published performance (precision = 0.906) on the ECHR database, a widely used collection of litigation processes, and it is the first to be applied in a Brazilian labor court. Results show that the framework is a suitable alternative to be used against the traditional method of estimating the verdict outcome from a pending litigation performed by lawyers. Finally, we validated our results with experts who confirmed the promising possibilities of the framework. We encourage academics to continue developing research on mathematical modeling in the legal area as it is an emerging topic with a promising future and practitioners to use tools based as the proposed, as they provides substantial advantages in terms of accuracy and speed over conventional methods

The management of COVID-19 cases through telemedicine in Brazil.

In Dec 2020 Brazil became one of the worldwide epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic with more than 7.2M reported cases. Brazil has a large territory with unequal distribution of healthcare resources including physicians. Resource limitation has been one of the main factors hampering Brazil's response to the COVID-19 crisis. Telemedicine has been an effective approach for COVID-19 management as it allows to reduce the risk of cross-contamination and provides support to remote rural locations. Here we present the analyses of teleconsultations from a countrywide telemedicine service (TelessáudeRS-UFRGS, TRS), that provides physician-to-physician remote support during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We performed a descriptive analysis of the teleconsultation incoming calls and a text analysis from the call transcripts. Our findings indicate that TRS teleconsultations in Brazil experienced an exponential increment of 802.% during a period of 6 days, after the first death due to COVID-19 was reported. However, the number of teleconsultations cases decreased over time, despite the number of reported COVID-19 cases continuously increasing. The results also showed that physicians in low-income municipalities, based on GDP per capita, are less likely to consult the telemedicine service despite facing higher rates of COVID-19 cases. The text analysis of call transcripts from medical teleconsultations showed that the main concern of physicians were "asymptomatic" patients. We suggest an immediate reinforcement of telehealth services in the regions of lower income as a strategy to support COVID-19 management

Macaronesian (except Canaries) vascular plants in the TFC Herbarium

El Herbario TFC es el Herbario Institucional de la Universidad de La Laguna (ULL), Tenerife, Islas Canarias y alberga cinco colecciones principales: algas, hongos, líquenes, briófitos y plantas vasculares. La mayor de ellas es la de plantas vasculares con 53 000 pliegos, 890 de ellos recolectados en los archipiélagos macaronésicos de Azores (45 pliegos), Madeira (401), Salvajes (44) y Cabo Verde (400), correspondientes a 91 familias (dominando Fabaceae, Asteraceae, Lamiaceae, Poaceae y Scrophulariaceae), 279 géneros (dominando Teline, Lavandula, Lotus, Micromeria y Genista), 396 especies, 19 subespecies, 26 variedades y 1 forma. Están representadas más del 50% de las familias botánicas presentes en los archipiélagos de Salvajes y Cabo Verde. El Herbario TFC presenta al menos un pliego de más de la mitad de endemismos de Cabo Verde y más del 40% de los endemismos de Salvajes.TFC Herbarium is the Institutional Herbarium of the University of La Laguna (ULL), Tenerife, Canary Islands. TFC herbarium houses five main collections: algae, fungi, lichens, bryophytes and vascular plants. The largest is vascular plants with 53 000 sheets, 890 of them collected in Macaronesian archipelagos of Azores (45 sheets), Madeira (401), Selvagens (44) and Cabo Verde (400), of 91 families (principally Fabaceae, Asteraceae, Lamiaceae, Poaceae and Scrophulariaceae), 279 genera (principally Teline, Lavandula, Lotus, Micromeria and Genista), 396 species, 19 subspecies, 26 varieties and 1 form. More than 50% of the botanic families of Selvagens and Cabo Verde are present. TFC Herbarium house at least one sheet of more than half of Cabo Verde endemisms and more than 40% Selvagens endemisms

Variabilidad en el contenido de polifenoles, actividad biológica y antihelmíntica de extractos metanol:agua de las hojas de Gymnopodium floribundum Rolfe

The effect of the harvest month and age of the leaves of Gymnopodium floribundum on the content of polyphenolic compounds (total phenols (TP), total tannins (TT) and condensed tannins (CT)) of methanol:water extracts was determined. In addition, the biological activity of polyphenols measured as the ability to precipitate protein (PP), inhibit egg hatching (EH), and larval exsheathment (LEI) of Haemonchus contortus was determined. G. floribundum leaves were harvested in 4 mo of the year: December, March, June and September. Twenty-four methanol:water extracts (70:30) were obtained, 12 produced from leaves of varied age (VA) and 12 from 90-d-old leaves (A90). All extracts caused similar PP regardless of age and harvest month. EH inhibition was only significant for December VA extract (EC50 = 374.4 μg/mL; P 1,500 μg/mL in December, June and September. Although all extracts inhibited larval exsheathment (LEI), the lowest EC50 was that of the VA leaf extract of June (EC50 = 80.4 μg/mL; P 1500 μg/ml en diciembre, junio y septiembre. Aunque todos los extractos inhibieron el desenvaine larval (IDL), la menor CE50 fue la del extracto de hojas EV de junio (CE50 = 80.4 μg/ml; P<0.05). La incubación de extractos con polivinilpolipirrolidona (PVPP) limitó la IDL (P<0.05), pero los polifenoles solo explicaron parte de esa actividad. En conclusión, el contenido de TC de los extractos de hojas de G. floribundum depende de su edad y mes de cosecha. Los polifenoles mostraron actividad de PP y se asociaron parcialmente con la IDL. Sin embargo, los polifenoles no explican la actividad contra huevos de H. contortus

The management of COVID-19 cases through telemedicine in Brazil

In Dec 2020 Brazil became one of the worldwide epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic with more than 7.2M reported cases. Brazil has a large territory with unequal distribution of healthcare resources including physicians. Resource limitation has been one of the main factors hampering Brazil’s response to the COVID-19 crisis. Telemedicine has been an effective approach for COVID-19 management as it allows to reduce the risk of cross-contamination and provides support to remote rural locations. Here we present the analyses of teleconsultations from a countrywide telemedicine service (Telessa´udeRS-UFRGS, TRS), that provides physician-to-physician remote support during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We performed a descriptive analysis of the teleconsultation incoming calls and a text analysis from the call transcripts. Our findings indicate that TRS teleconsultations in Brazil experienced an exponential increment of 802.% during a period of 6 days, after the first death due to COVID-19 was reported. However, the number of teleconsultations cases decreased over time, despite the number of reported COVID-19 cases continuously increasing. The results also showed that physicians in low-income municipalities, based on GDP per capita, are less likely to consult the telemedicine service despite facing higher rates of COVID-19 cases. The text analysis of call transcripts from medical teleconsultations showed that the main concern of physicians were “asymptomatic” patients. We suggest an immediate reinforcement of telehealth services in the regions of lower income as a strategy to support COVID-19 management.Telemedicin

Bio-guided fractionation to identify Senegalia gaumeri leaf extract compounds with anthelmintic activity against Haemonchus contortus eggs and larvae

Small ruminants browsing in tropical forests readily consume the foliage of Senegalia gaumeri. A S. gaumeri methanol:water extract was recently shown to have ovicidal activity against Haemonchus contortus eggs in vitro. In the present study, the fraction of a S. gaumeri methanol:water extract with ovicidal activity against H. contortus eggs and the metabolites potentially involved in this activity were identified. Bio-guided fractionation of the S. gaumeri methanol:water extract identified high ovicidal activity (80.29%, EC50 = 58.9 μg/mL) in the non-polar sub-fraction P1. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC–MS) identified several fatty acids: pentacosane (18.05%), heneicosane (18.05%), triacontane (30.94%), octacosane (18.05%), and hexanedioic acid bis-(2-ethylhexyl) ester (32.72%). Purification of the polar components of sub-fraction P1 led to the identification of p-coumaric acid as a major constituent. In egg hatch tests, 400 μg/mL p-coumaric acid resulted in an ovicidal effect of 8.7%, a larvae failing eclosion effect of 2.9%, and of the emerged larvae (88.4%), many were damaged. In conclusion, the low AH activity of p-coumaric acid against H. contortus eggs indicates that it is not solely responsible for the ovicidal activity of sub-fraction P1 but might act in synergy with other compounds in this fraction. However, p-coumaric acid showed potential anthelmintic effects against the larval stage of H. contortus

Emotional experiences and psychological well-being in 51 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to psychological well-being, but how can we predict when people suffer or cope during sustained stress? Here, we test the prediction that specific types of momentary emotional experiences are differently linked to psychological well-being during the pandemic. Study 1 used survey data collected from 24,221 participants in 51 countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that, across countries, wellbeing is linked to individuals’ recent emotional experiences, including calm, hope, anxiety, loneliness, and sadness. Consistent results are found in two age, sex, and ethnicity-representative samples in the United Kingdom (n = 971) and the United States (n = 961) with preregistered analyses (Study 2). A prospective 30-day daily diary study conducted in the United Kingdom (n = 110) confirms the key role of these five emotions and demonstrates that emotional experiences precede changes in well-being (Study 3). Our findings highlight differential relationships between specific types of momentary emotional experiences and well-being and point to the cultivation of calm and hope as candidate routes for well-being interventions during periods of sustained stress

Emotional experiences and psychological well-being in 51 countries during the covid-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to psychological well-being, but how can we predict when people suffer or cope during sustained stress? Here, we test the prediction that specific types of momentary emotional experiences are differently linked to psychological well-being during the pandemic. Study 1 used survey data collected from 24,221 participants in 51 countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that, across countries, well-being is linked to individuals’ recent emotional experiences, including calm, hope, anxiety, loneliness, and sadness. Consistent results are found in two age, sex, and ethnicity-representative samples in the United Kingdom (n = 971) and the United States (n = 961) with preregistered analyses (Study 2). A prospective 30-day daily diary study conducted in the United Kingdom (n = 110) confirms the key role of these five emotions and demonstrates that emotional experiences precede changes in well-being (Study 3). Our findings highlight differential relationships between specific types of momentary emotional experiences and well-being and point to the cultivation of calm and hope as candidate routes for well-being interventions during periods of sustained stress

A influência dos valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva

A surpresa positiva tem sido citada como um elemento responsável pelos altos níveis da satisfação do consumidor. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos valores humanos com a satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva. Para esse fim, foi efetuada uma survey aleatória online via a plataforma de Amazon Mechanichal Turk. A partir disso, foram mensurados os construtos conceituais surpresa, satisfação do consumidor e a tipologia de valores humanos de Schwartz. Uma vez coletados os resultados, passou-se a analisar as relações lineares através do método de Equações Estruturais não Paramétricas. A primeira relação analisada foi entre os valores humanos e a surpresa positiva, resultando estatisticamente significantes os valores benevolência, estimulação e poder. A segunda relação foi entre os valores humanos com a satisfação, sendo significativos os valores autodeterminação, benevolência, tradição, e negativamente o hedonismo. Por último, foram verificadas as interações entre a surpresa positiva e valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor, resultando significante positivamente o valor hedonismo.Surprise has been referred as one of the main elements of consumer delight satisfaction. The purpose of the present work was to study the influence of individual’s human values on consumer´s satisfaction when a positive surprise occurs. An online survey through Amazon´s Mechanical Turk was conducted in order to measure a possible relationship between surprise, satisfaction, and Schwartz’s human values constructs. Statistical linear analyses with a non-parametric Structural Equation Modelling procedure were performed. Three relationships among the constructs were analysed. The first one was between human values and positive surprise; the values that showed significance were benevolence, stimulation, and power. The second relationship analysed were between values and satisfaction; the values that show statistical significance were achievement, benevolence, tradition and negatively hedonism. Moreover, a third analysis was conducted to check possible interactions between positive surprise and human values into satisfaction. Results displayed hedonism as a human value with statistical significance

A influência dos valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva

A surpresa positiva tem sido citada como um elemento responsável pelos altos níveis da satisfação do consumidor. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos valores humanos com a satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva. Para esse fim, foi efetuada uma survey aleatória online via a plataforma de Amazon Mechanichal Turk. A partir disso, foram mensurados os construtos conceituais surpresa, satisfação do consumidor e a tipologia de valores humanos de Schwartz. Uma vez coletados os resultados, passou-se a analisar as relações lineares através do método de Equações Estruturais não Paramétricas. A primeira relação analisada foi entre os valores humanos e a surpresa positiva, resultando estatisticamente significantes os valores benevolência, estimulação e poder. A segunda relação foi entre os valores humanos com a satisfação, sendo significativos os valores autodeterminação, benevolência, tradição, e negativamente o hedonismo. Por último, foram verificadas as interações entre a surpresa positiva e valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor, resultando significante positivamente o valor hedonismo.Surprise has been referred as one of the main elements of consumer delight satisfaction. The purpose of the present work was to study the influence of individual’s human values on consumer´s satisfaction when a positive surprise occurs. An online survey through Amazon´s Mechanical Turk was conducted in order to measure a possible relationship between surprise, satisfaction, and Schwartz’s human values constructs. Statistical linear analyses with a non-parametric Structural Equation Modelling procedure were performed. Three relationships among the constructs were analysed. The first one was between human values and positive surprise; the values that showed significance were benevolence, stimulation, and power. The second relationship analysed were between values and satisfaction; the values that show statistical significance were achievement, benevolence, tradition and negatively hedonism. Moreover, a third analysis was conducted to check possible interactions between positive surprise and human values into satisfaction. Results displayed hedonism as a human value with statistical significance