The TOMCAT global chemical transport model v1.6: description of chemical mechanism and model evaluation

This paper documents the tropospheric chemical mechanism scheme used in the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. The current scheme includes a more detailed representation of hydrocarbon chemistry than previously included in the model, with the inclusion of the emission and oxidation of ethene, propene, butane, toluene and monoterpenes. The model is evaluated against a range of surface, balloon, aircraft and satellite measurements. The model is generally able to capture the main spatial and seasonal features of high and low concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen. However, model biases are found in some species, some of which are common to chemistry models and some that are specific to TOMCAT and warrant further investigation. The most notable of these biases are (1) a negative bias in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter and spring CO and a positive bias in Southern Hemisphere (SH) CO throughout the year, (2) a positive bias in NH O3 in summer and a negative bias at high latitudes during SH winter and (3) a negative bias in NH winter C2 and C3 alkanes and alkenes. TOMCAT global mean tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations are higher than estimates inferred from observations of methyl chloroform but similar to, or lower than, multi-model mean concentrations reported in recent model intercomparison studies. TOMCAT shows peak OH concentrations in the tropical lower troposphere, unlike other models which show peak concentrations in the tropical upper troposphere. This is likely to affect the lifetime and transport of important trace gases and warrants further investigation

Peroxy radicals in the summer free troposphere: seasonality and potential for heterogeneous loss

The sum of peroxy radicals (HO<sub>2</sub>+Σ<sub><i>i</i></sub>R<sub><i>i</i></sub>O<sub>2</sub>) and supporting trace gases were measured on the Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.) during the late summer of 2005. The period was marked by extended times of heavy snow which led to reduction in the observed peroxy radicals during the snowy periods that was greater than the concomitant reduction in <i>j</i>(O<sup>1</sup>D). In the limit a first order loss rate of 0.0063 s<sup>−1</sup> can be derived for the peroxy radical loss in the snowy conditions that could be potentially ascribed to a heterogenous loss process. On snow free days photolysis of HCHO is shown to be a significant peroxy radical source. The seasonal trends of the peroxy radical concentrations have been mapped from the winter to summer transition in line with previous experiments. Net ozone production in late summer at the Jungfraujoch was net neutral to marginally ozone destructive. A value of 28±4 pptv is calculated for the ozone compensation point for the snow free days

Seasonal dependence of peroxy radical concentrations at a northern hemisphere marine boundary layer site during summer and winter: evidence for photochemical activity in winter

International audiencePeroxy radicals (HO2+?RO2) were measured at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory (52° N, 1° E), Norfolk using a PEroxy Radical Chemical Amplifier (PERCA) during the winter and summer of 2002. The peroxy radical diurnal cycles showed a marked difference between the winter and summer campaigns with maximum concentrations of 12 pptv at midday in the summer and maximum concentrations as high as 30 pptv (10 min averages) in winter at night. The corresponding nighttime peroxy radical concentrations were not as high in summer (3 pptv). The peroxy radical concentration shows a distinct anti-correlation with increasing NOx during the daylight hours. At night, peroxy radicals increase with increasing NOx indicative of the role of NO3 chemistry. The average diurnal cycles for net ozone production, N(O3) show a large variability in ozone production, P(O3), and a large ozone loss, L(O3) in summer relative to winter. For a daylight average, net ozone production in summer than winter (1.51±0.5 ppbv h?1 and 1.11±0.47 ppbv h?1 respectively) but summer shows more variability of (meteorological) conditions than winter. The variability in NO concentration has a much larger effect on N(O3) than the peroxy radical concentrations. Photostationary state (PSS) calculations show an NO2 lifetime of 5 min in summer and 21 min in the winter, implying that steady-state NO-NO2 ratios are not always attained during the winter months. The results show an active peroxy radical chemistry at night and the ability of winter to make oxidant. The net effect of this with respect to production of ozone in winter is unclear owing to the breakdown in the photostationary state

Beyond ratios - flexible and resilient nurse staffing options to deliver cost-effective hospital care and address staff shortages: a simulation and economic modelling study

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: This paper draws on research and data reported in more detail in the NIHR Journals Library Health Services and Delivery Research. The data for this paper consist of anonymous ward and hospital parameters and simulation results. All data requests should be submitted to the corresponding author for consideration. Access to available anonymised data may be granted following review. The simulation model and accompanying documentation are available from the author on reasonable request.Background In the face of pressure to contain costs and make best use of scarce nurses, flexible staff deployment (floating staff between units and temporary hires) guided by a patient classification system may appear an efficient approach to meeting variable demand for care in hospitals. Objectives We modelled the cost-effectiveness of different approaches to planning baseline numbers of nurses to roster on general medical/surgical units while using flexible staff to respond to fluctuating demand. Design and setting We developed an agent-based simulation, where hospital inpatient units move between being understaffed, adequately staffed or overstaffed as staff supply and demand (as measured by the Safer Nursing Care Tool patient classification system) varies. Staffing shortfalls are addressed by floating staff from overstaffed units or hiring temporary staff. We compared a standard staffing plan (baseline rosters set to match average demand) with a higher baseline ‘resilient’ plan set to match higher than average demand, and a low baseline ‘flexible’ plan. We varied assumptions about temporary staff availability and estimated the effect of unresolved low staffing on length of stay and death, calculating cost per life saved. Results Staffing plans with higher baseline rosters led to higher costs but improved outcomes. Cost savings from lower baseline staff mainly arose because shifts were left understaffed and much of the staff cost saving was offset by costs from longer patient stays. With limited temporary staff available, changing from low baseline flexible plan to the standard plan cost £13,117 per life saved and changing from the standard plan to the higher baseline ‘resilient’ plan cost £8,653 per life saved. Although adverse outcomes from low baseline staffing reduced when more temporary staff were available, higher baselines were even more cost-effective because the saving on staff costs also reduced. With unlimited temporary staff, changing from low baseline plan to the standard cost £4,520 per life saved and changing from the standard plan to the higher baseline cost £3,693 per life saved. Conclusion Shift-by-shift measurement of patient demand can guide flexible staff deployment, but the baseline number of staff rostered must be sufficient. Higher baseline rosters are more resilient in the face of variation and appear cost-effective. Staffing plans that minimise the number of nurses rostered in advance are likely to harm patients because temporary staff may not be available at short notice. Such plans, which rely heavily on flexible deployments, do not represent an efficient or effective use of nurses.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Intercomparison of aircraft instruments on board the <i>C-130</i> and <i>Falcon 20</i> over southern Germany during EXPORT 2000

International audienceIn the summer 2000 Export aircraft campaign (European eXport of Precursors and Ozone by long-Range Transport), two comprehensively instrumented research aircraft measuring a variety of chemical species flew wing tip to wing tip for a period of one and a quarter hours. During this interval a comparison was undertaken of the measurements of nitrogen oxide (NO), odd nitrogen species (NOy), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3). The comparison was performed at two different flight levels, which provided a 10-fold variation in the concentrations of both NO (10 to 1000 parts per trillion by volume (pptv)) and NOy (200 to over 2500 pptv). Large peaks of NO and NOy observed from the Falcon 20, which were at first thought to be from the exhaust of the C-130, were also detected on the 4 channel NOx,y instrument aboard the C-130. These peaks were a good indication that both aircraft were in the same air mass and that the Falcon 20 was not in the exhaust plume of the C-130. Correlations and statistical analysis are presented between the instruments used on the two separate aircraft platforms. These were found to be in good agreement giving a high degree of correlation for the ambient air studied. Any deviations from the correlations are accounted for in the estimated inaccuracies of the instruments. These results help to establish that the instruments aboard the separate aircraft are reliably able to measure the corresponding chemical species in the range of conditions sampled and that data collected by both aircraft can be co-ordinated for purposes of interpretation

Intercomparison and evaluation of satellite peroxyacetyl nitrate observations in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is an important chemical species in the troposphere as it aids the long-range transport of NOx and subsequent formation of O3 in relatively clean remote regions. Over the past few decades observations from aircraft campaigns and surface sites have been used to better understand the regional distribution of PAN. However, recent measurements made by satellites allow for a global assessment of PAN in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS). In this study, we investigate global PAN distributions from two independent retrieval methodologies, based on measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument, on board Envisat from the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester (UoL). Retrieving PAN from MIPAS is challenging due to the weak signal in the measurements and contamination from other species. Therefore, we compare the two MIPAS datasets with observations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS), in situ aircraft data and the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. MIPAS shows peak UTLS PAN concentrations over the biomass burning regions (e.g. ranging from 150 to  >  200 pptv at 150 hPa) and during the summertime Asian monsoon as enhanced convection aids the vertical transport of PAN from the lower atmosphere. At 150 hPa, we find significant differences between the two MIPAS datasets in the tropics, where IMK PAN concentrations are larger by 50–100 pptv. Comparisons between MIPAS and ACE-FTS show better agreement with the UoL MIPAS PAN concentrations at 200 hPa, but with mixed results above this altitude. TOMCAT generally captures the magnitude and structure of climatological aircraft PAN profiles within the observational variability allowing it to be used to investigate the MIPAS PAN differences. TOMCAT–MIPAS comparisons show that the model is both positively (UoL) and negatively (IMK) biased against the satellite products. These results indicate that satellite PAN observations are able to detect realistic spatial variations in PAN in the UTLS, but further work is needed to resolve differences in existing retrievals to allow quantitative use of the products

Seasonal dependence of peroxy radical concentrations at a Northern hemisphere marine boundary layer site during summer and winter: evidence for radical activity in winter

Peroxy radicals (HO2+Σ RO2) were measured at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory (52° N, 1° E), Norfolk using a PEroxy Radical Chemical Amplifier (PERCA) during the winter and summer of 2002. The peroxy radical diurnal cycles showed a marked difference between the winter and summer campaigns with maximum concentrations of 12 pptv at midday in the summer and maximum concentrations as high as 30 pptv (10 min averages) in winter at night. The corresponding nighttime peroxy radical concentrations were not as high in summer (3 pptv). The peroxy radical concentration shows a distinct anti-correlation with increasing NOx during the daylight hours. At night, peroxy radicals increase with increasing NOx indicative of the role of NO3 chemistry. The average diurnal cycles for net ozone production, N(O3) show a large variability in ozone production, P(O3), and a large ozone loss, L(O3) in summer relative to winter. For a daylight average, net ozone production in summer was higher than winter (1.51±0.5 ppbv h−1 and 1.11±0.47 ppbv h−1, respectively). The variability in NO concentration has a much larger effect on N(O3) than the peroxy radical concentrations. Photostationary state (PSS) calculations show an NO2 lifetime of 5 min in summer and 21 minutes in the winter, implying that steady-state NO-NO2 ratios are not always attained during the winter months. The results show an active peroxy radical chemistry at night and that significant oxidant levels are sustained in winter. The net effect of this with respect to production of ozone in winter is unclear owing to the breakdown in the photostationary state

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Satellite Peroxyacetyl Nitrate Observations in the Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is an important chemical species in the troposphere as it aids the long-range transport of NOx and subsequent formation of O3 in relatively clean remote regions. Over the past few decades observations from aircraft campaigns and surface sites have been used to better understand the regional distribution of PAN. However, recent measurements made by satellites allow for a global assessment of PAN in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS). In this study, we investigate global PAN distributions from two independent retrieval methodologies, based on measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument, on board Envisat from the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester (UoL). Retrieving PAN from MIPAS is challenging due to the weak signal in the measurements and contamination from other species. Therefore, we compare the two MIPAS datasets with observations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS), in situ aircraft data and the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. MIPAS shows peak UTLS PAN concentrations over the biomass burning regions (e.g. ranging from 150 to \u3e 200 pptv at 150 hPa) and during the summertime Asian monsoon as enhanced convection aids the vertical transport of PAN from the lower atmosphere. At 150 hPa, we find significant differences between the two MIPAS datasets in the tropics, where IMK PAN concentrations are larger by 50-100 pptv. Comparisons between MIPAS and ACE-FTS show better agreement with the UoL MIPAS PAN concentrations at 200 hPa, but with mixed results above this altitude. TOMCAT generally captures the magnitude and structure of climatological aircraft PAN profiles within the observational variability allowing it to be used to investigate the MIPAS PAN differences. TOMCAT-MIPAS comparisons show that the model is both positively (UoL) and negatively (IMK) biased against the satellite products. These results indicate that satellite PAN observations are able to detect realistic spatial variations in PAN in the UTLS, but further work is needed to resolve differences in existing retrievals to allow quantitative use of the products. © Author(s) 2016