Complex Network Modelling of Origin–Destination Commuting Flows for the COVID-19 Epidemic Spread Analysis in Italian Lombardy Region

Currently the whole world is affected by the COVID-19 disease. Italy was the first country to be seriously affected in Europe, where the first COVID-19 outbreak was localized in the Lombardy region. The further spreading of the cases led to the lockdown of the most affected regions in northern Italy and then the entire country. In this work we investigated an epidemic spread scenario in the Lombardy region by using the origin–destination matrix with information about the commuting flows among 1450 urban areas within the region. We performed a large-scale simulation-based modeling of the epidemic spread over the networks related to three main motivations, i.e., work, study and occasional transfers to quantify the potential contribution of each category of travellers to the spread of the epidemic process. Our findings outline that the three networks are characterised by different weight dynamic growth rates and that the network "work" has a critical role in the diffusion phenomenon showing the greatest contribution to the epidemic spread

Machine Learning for Cloud Detection of Globally Distributed Sentinel-2 Images

In recent years, a number of different procedures have been proposed for segmentation of remote sensing images, basing on spectral information. Model-based and machine learning strategies have been investigated in several studies. This work presents a comprehensive overview and an unbiased comparison of the most adopted segmentation strategies: Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, Neural networks, Sen2Cor, FMask and MAJA. We used a training set for learning and two different independent sets for testing. The comparison accounted for 135 images acquired from 54 different worldwide sites. We observed that machine learning segmentations are extremely reliable when the training and test are homogeneous. SVM performed slightly better than other methods. In particular, when using heterogeneous test data, SVM remained the most accurate segmentation method while state-of-the-art model-based methods such as MAJA and FMask obtained better sensitivity and precision, respectively. Therefore, even if each method has its specific advantages and drawbacks, SVM resulted in a competitive option for remote sensing applications

Multi-Time-Scale Features for Accurate Respiratory Sound Classification

The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified the urgency of the developments in computer-assisted medicine and, in particular, the need for automated tools supporting the clinical diagnosis and assessment of respiratory symptoms. This need was already clear to the scientific community, which launched an international challenge in 2017 at the International Conference on Biomedical Health Informatics (ICBHI) for the implementation of accurate algorithms for the classification of respiratory sound. In this work, we present a framework for respiratory sound classification based on two different kinds of features: (i) short-term features which summarize sound properties on a time scale of tenths of a second and (ii) long-term features which assess sounds properties on a time scale of seconds. Using the publicly available dataset provided by ICBHI, we cross-validated the classification performance of a neural network model over 6895 respiratory cycles and 126 subjects. The proposed model reached an accuracy of 85%±3% and an precision of 80%±8%, which compare well with the body of literature. The robustness of the predictions was assessed by comparison with state-of-the-art machine learning tools, such as the support vector machine, Random Forest and deep neural networks. The model presented here is therefore suitable for large-scale applications and for adoption in clinical practice. Finally, an interesting observation is that both short-term and long-term features are necessary for accurate classification, which could be the subject of future studies related to its clinical interpretation

Ensemble using different Planetary Boundary Layer schemes in WRF model for wind speed and direction prediction over Apulia region

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model (WRF) was used to simulate hourly 10 m wind speed and direction over the city of Taranto, Apulia region (south-eastern Italy). This area is characterized by a large industrial complex including the largest European steel plant and is subject to a Regional Air Quality Recovery Plan. This plan constrains industries in the area to reduce by 10 % the mean daily emissions by diffuse and point sources during specific meteorological conditions named wind days. According to the Recovery Plan, the Regional Environmental Agency ARPA-PUGLIA is responsible for forecasting these specific meteorological conditions with 72 h in advance and possibly issue the early warning. In particular, an accurate wind simulation is required. Unfortunately, numerical weather prediction models suffer from errors, especially for what concerns near-surface fields. These errors depend primarily on uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions provided by global models and secondly on the model formulation, in particular the physical parametrizations used to represent processes such as turbulence, radiation exchange, cumulus and microphysics. In our work, we tried to compensate for the latter limitation by using different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. Five combinations of PBL and Surface Layer (SL) schemes were considered. Simulations are implemented in a real-time configuration since our intention is to analyze the same configuration implemented by ARPA-PUGLIA for operational runs; the validation is focused over a time range extending from 49 to 72 h with hourly time resolution. The assessment of the performance was computed by comparing the WRF model output with ground data measured at a weather monitoring station in Taranto, near the steel plant. After the analysis of the simulations performed with different PBL schemes, both simple (e.g. average) and more complex post-processing methods (e.g. weighted average, linear and nonlinear regression, and artificial neural network) are adopted to improve the performances with respect to the output of each single setup. The neural network approach comes out as the most promising method

Economic Interplay Forecasting Business Success

A startup ecosystem is a dynamic environment in which several actors, such as investors, venture capitalists, angels, and facilitators, are the protagonists of a complex interplay. Most of these interactions involve the flow of capital whose size and direction help to map the intricate system of relationships. This quantity is also considered a good proxy of economic success. Given the complexity of such systems, it would be more desirable to supplement this information with other informative features, and a natural choice is to adopt mathematical measures. In this work, we will specifically consider network centrality measures, borrowed by network theory. In particular, using the largest publicly available dataset for startups, the Crunchbase dataset, we show how centrality measures highlight the importance of particular players, such as angels and accelerators, whose role could be underestimated by focusing on collected funds only. We also provide a quantitative criterion to establish which firms should be considered strategic and rank them. Finally, as funding is a widespread measure for success in economic settings, we investigate to which extent this measure is in agreement with network metrics; the model accurately forecasts which firms will receive the highest funding in future years

Territorial Development as an Innovation Driver: A Complex Network Approach

Rankings are a well-established tool to evaluate the performance of actors in different sectors of the economy, and their use is increasing even in the context of the startup ecosystem, both on a regional and on a global scale. Although rankings meet the demand for measurability and comparability, they often provide an oversimplified picture of the status quo, which, in particular, overlooks the variability of the socio-economic conditions in which the quantified results are achieved. In this paper, we describe an approach based on constructing a network of world countries, in which links are determined by mutual similarity in terms of development indicators. Through the instrument of community detection, we perform an unsupervised partition of the considered set of countries, aimed at interpreting their performance in the StartupBlink rankings. We consider both the global ranking and the specific ones (quality, quantity, business). After verifying if community membership is predictive of the success of a country in the considered ranking, we rate country performances in terms of the expectation based on community peers. We are thus able to identify cases in which performance is better than expected, providing a benchmark for countries in similar conditions, and cases in which performance is below the expectation, highlighting the need to strengthen the innovation ecosystem

A complex network approach reveals pivotal sub-structure of genes linked to Schizophrenia

Research on brain disorders with a strong genetic component and complex heritability, like schizophrenia and autism, has promoted the development of brain transcriptomics. This research field deals with the deep understanding of how gene-gene interactions impact on risk for heritable brain disorders. With this perspective, we developed a novel data-driven strategy for characterizing genetic modules, i.e., clusters, also called community, of strongly interacting genes. The aim is to uncover a pivotal module of genes by gaining biological insight upon them. Our approach combined network topological properties, to highlight the presence of a pivotal community, matchted with information theory, to assess the informativeness of partitions. Shannon entropy of the complex networks based on average betweenness of the nodes is adopted for this purpose. We analyzed the publicly available BrainCloud dataset, containing post-mortem gene expression data and we focused on the Dopamine Receptor D2, encoded by the DRD2 gene. To parse the DRD2 community into sub-structure, we applied and compared four different community detection algorithms. A pivotal DRD2 module emerged for all procedures applied and it represented a considerable reduction, compared with the beginning network size. Dice index 80% for the detected community confirmed the stability of the results, in a wide range of tested parameters. The detected community was also the most informative, as it represented an optimization of the Shannon entropy. Lastly, we verified that the DRD2 was strongly connected to its neighborhood, stronger than any other randomly selected community and more than the Weighted Gene Coexpression Network Analysis (WGCNA) module, commonly considered the standard approach for these studies