Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate fay-herriot model

A Multivariate Fay-Herriot model is used to aid the prediction of small area parameters of dependent variables with sample data aggregated to area level. The empirical best linear unbiased predictor of the parameter vector is used, and an approximation of the elements of the mean cross product error matrix is obtained by an extension of the results of Prasad and Rao (1990) to the multiparameter case. Three different bootstrap approximations of those elements are introduced, and a simulation study is developed in order to compare the efficiency of all presented approximations, including a comparison under lack of normality. Further, the number of replications needed for the bootstrap procedures to get stabilized are studied

A Comparison of Small Area Estimation Methods for Poverty Mapping

Poverty maps are an important source of information on the regional distribution of poverty and are currently used to support regional policy making and to allocate funds to local jurisdictions. But obtaining accurate poverty maps at low levels of disaggregation is not straightforward because of insufficient sample size of official surveys in some of the target regions. Direct estimates, obtained with the region-specific sample data, are unstable in the sense of having very large sampling errors for regions with small sample size. Very unstable poverty estimates might make the seemingly poorer regions in one period appear as the richer in the next period, which can be inconsistent. On the other hand, very stable but biased estimates (e.g., too homogeneous across regions) might make identification of the poorer regions difficult. Here we review the main small area estimation methods for poverty mapping. In particular, we consider direct estimation, the Fay-Herriot area level model, the method of Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2003) used by the World Bank, the empirical Best/Bayes (EB) method of Molina and Rao (2010) and its extension, the Census EB, and finally the hierarchical Bayes proposal of Molina, Nandram and Rao (2014). We put ourselves in the point of view of a practitioner and discuss, as objectively as possible, the benefits and drawbacks of each method, illustrating some of them through simulation studies

Angiotensinogen gene G-6A polymorphism influences idiopathic pulmonary fibrosisdisease progression

Angiotensin II is a growth factor that plays a key role in the physiopathology of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A nucleotide substitution of an adenine instead of a guanine (G-6A) in the proximal promoter region of angiotensinogen (AGT), the precursor of angiotensin II, has been associated with an increased gene transcription rate. In order to investigate whether the G-6A polymorphism of the AGT gene is associated with IPF development, severity and progression, the present study utilised a case–control study design and genotyped G-6A in 219 patients with IPF and 224 control subjects. The distribution of G-6A genotypes and alleles did not significantly differ between cases and controls. The G-6A polymorphism of the AGT gene was not associated with disease severity at diagnosis. The presence of the A allele was strongly associated with increased alveolar arterial oxygen tension difference during follow-up, after controlling for the confounding factors. Higher alveolar arterial oxygen tension changes over time were observed in patients with the AA genotype (0.37¡0.7 mmHg (0.049¡0.093 kPa) per month) compared to GA genotype (0.12¡1 mmHg (0.016¡0.133 kPa) per month) and GG genotype (0.2¡0.6 mmHg (0.027¡0.080 kPa) per month). G-6A polymorphism of the angiotensinogen gene is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis progression but not with disease predisposition. This polymorphism could have a predictive significance in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients.Supported by grants from FIS-PI; FISPI060064, FIS-IDIBAPS CM05/00118, Sociedad Española de Neumologia y Cirugia Torácica (SEPAR)-Fundación Respira and Faculdade Capivari, Spain.Peer reviewe

Propagation of gravity waves and spread F in the low-latitude ionosphere over Tucumán, Argentina, by continuous Doppler sounding: first results

Results of systematic analysis of propagation directions and horizontal velocities of gravity waves (GWs) and spread F structures in low-latitude ionosphere (magnetic inclination ~27°) in Tucumán region, Argentina, are presented. Measurements were carried out by multipoint continuous Doppler system during 1 year from December 2012 to November 2013. It was found that meridian propagation of GWs dominated and that southward propagation prevailed in the local summer. Oblique spread structures observed in Doppler shift spectrograms and associated with spread F propagated roughly eastward at velocities from ~70 to ~180 m/s and were observed at night from ~ September to ~ March. The velocities were computed for 182 events and the azimuths for 64 events. Continuous Doppler sounding makes it possible to analyze more events compared to optical observations often used for propagation studies since the measurements do not depend on weather.Fil: Chum, J.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Miranda Bonomi, Fernando Alberto. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Electricidad, Electrónica y Computación. Laboratorio de Telecomunicaciones; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Fišer, J.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Cabrera, M. A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Electricidad, Electrónica y Computación. Laboratorio de Telecomunicaciones; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Tucuman; ArgentinaFil: Ezquer, Rodolfo Gerardo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Tucuman; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Física. Laboratorio de Ionosfera; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Burešová, D.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Laštovička, J.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Baše, J.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Hruška, F.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República ChecaFil: Molina, Maria Graciela. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Ise, Juan Eduardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Electricidad, Electrónica y Computación. Laboratorio de Telecomunicaciones; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Cangemi, José Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología. Departamento de Electricidad, Electrónica y Computación. Laboratorio de Telecomunicaciones; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Šindelářová, T.. Institute of Atmospheric Physics; República Chec

Integration–segregation dynamics in functional networks of individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia

Schizophrenia has been associated with dysfunction in information integration/ segregation dynamics. One of the neural networks whose role has been most investigated in schizophrenia is the default mode network (DMN). In this study, we have explored the possible alteration of integration and segregation dynamics in individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia with respect to healthy controls, based on the study of the topological properties of the graphs derived from the functional connectivity between the nodes of the DMN in the resting state. Our results indicate that the patients show a diminution of the modularity of the DMN and a higher global efficiency, in sparse graphs. Our data emphasise the interest in studying temporal changes in network measures and are compatible with the hypothesis of randomization of functional networks in schizophrenia.Agencia Estatal de Investigacion, AEI PID2019-105145RB-I0

Fusarium head blight detection, spikelet estimation, and severity assessment in wheat using 3D convolutional neural networks

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the most significant diseases affecting wheat and other small grain cereals worldwide. The development of resistant varieties requires the laborious task of field and greenhouse phenotyping. The applications considered in this work are the automated detection of FHB disease symptoms expressed on a wheat plant, the automated estimation of the total number of spikelets and the total number of infected spikelets on a wheat head, and the automated assessment of the FHB severity in infected wheat. The data used to generate the results are 3-dimensional (3D) multispectral point clouds (PC), which are 3D collections of points - each associated with a red, green, blue (RGB), and near-infrared (NIR) measurement. Over 300 wheat plant images were collected using a multispectral 3D scanner, and the labelled UW-MRDC 3D wheat dataset was created. The data was used to develop novel and efficient 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) models for FHB detection, which achieved 100% accuracy. The influence of the multispectral information on performance was evaluated, and our results showed the dominance of the RGB channels over both the NIR and the NIR plus RGB channels combined. Furthermore, novel and efficient 3D CNNs were created to estimate the total number of spikelets and the total number of infected spikelets on a wheat head, and our best models achieved mean absolute errors (MAE) of 1.13 and 1.56, respectively. Moreover, 3D CNN models for FHB severity estimation were created, and our best model achieved 8.6 MAE. A linear regression analysis between the visual FHB severity assessment and the FHB severity predicted by our 3D CNN was performed, and the results showed a significant correlation between the two variables with a 0.0001 P-value and 0.94 R-squared

Method effects associated with negatively and positively worded items on the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) : results from a cross-sectional survey with a representative sample of Catalonian workers

This study focused on the examination of the latent structure underlying the responses to the GHQ-12, considering the role of method effects associated with both, PW and NW items, and using two alternative parameterisations of the CFA measurement models. What should first be noted is that the studies that have included method effects in the measurement model of the GHQ-12 have been more the exception than the rule in previous research into the factor structure of this questionnaire. According to the results of the present study, we conclude that the GHQ-12 factor structure is best characterised by introducing latent method factors that capture both the method effects associated with NW and PW items (model 7). These results support the conclusion from previous research that the good fit obtained by multidimensional models (mainly the two-factor model and the three-factor Graetz's model) could simply be explained by the artificial grouping of PW and NW items. However, the interpretation of the latent (method) factors as purely integrating method bias due to wording is not straightforward. It is obvious that NW and PW items share the wording. It is also clear that this three bifactor model (one trait and two method factors) fitted the data best. And finally, there is a lot of empirical evidence on these wording effects. However, it is also relevant to discuss the large loadings of many items on the method factors, being these loadings sometimes larger than their loadings in the trait factor. The general factor explains a 52% of the shared variance, but there are some items that deserve careful attention. For example, items 3 ('playing useful part in things') and 4 ('capable of making decisions') had very low loadings on the trait factor. If we understand PW method factor as the only method bias, then it follows that these two items are purely method effects, but surely they must share some trait variance. In the same vein, items 10 ('losing confidence in yourself') and 11 ('thinking of yourself as a worthless person') load very high in the NW method factor and, as a reviewer pointed out, a likely (post-hoc) explanation is that wording bias are still confounded with a confidence/self-image factor. Therefore, the interpretation of these effects as purely method and, accordingly, the interpretation of an overall score for the scale difficult may be compromised. The second aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the method factors associated with both NW and PW items and three demographic variables, namely sex, age and educational level of the respondents. Regarding the sex, we found a statistically significant, but weak, relationship between PW and sex, so that men were more likely than women to endorse PW items. These results are in line with previous works that, in the context of RSES, have found sex differences in wording effects. 56 57 As for the explanatory role of age on method effects, we found that the relationship between age and the NW effect was not statistically significant, which supports previous research using other questionnaires (eg, self-esteem scales, 50 Hospital Anxiety & Depression Scale 64). Moreover, our results give support to previous studies which had stated that, in older adults, the strongest method effects would be associated with PW items, rather than NW items. 55 58 As to the educational level, we found that there was not a significant correlation of this variable on the two method factors. This result supports and extends the evidence obtained in Tomás et al 50 who found that the educational level of the respondents had no effect on the negative method factor using self-esteem questionnaires. This results contradicts previous research on the relationship of the NW factor and the educational level/verbal ability with different questionnaires and samples. 41 64-69 Overall, the significant effects of sex and age on trait and method factors point out that women have a worse well-being, but this effect is partly modified by a method effect on the PW items, whereas the results for age suggest that older respondents have worse well-being and this effect is magnified by a method effect on the PW factor. The results on the individual differences related to the demographic variables considered in this study cannot only help to understand the presence of wording method effects but also to identify respondents who are prone to answering PW and NW items differently. In this sense, the relationship that appears as more evident is for the age and sex variables. Another practical consequence of our study concerns the relationship between the intended measure of the GHQ-12 (ie, the GPH factor) and other constructs of interest. Several studies have shown that method effects can inflate, deflate or have no effect at all on estimates of the relationship between two constructs (see Podsakoff et al 70 for a further review of the effects that method biases have on individual measures and on the covariation between different constructs). Thus, it is desirable that both the constructs of interest as well as the effects of method factors, like PW and NW, are considered in SEM models as a means of controlling these systematic sources of bias, and thus avoiding the drawing of inaccurate conclusions about the relationship between the substantive factors. Previous research on the GHQ-12 31 36 has outlined the asymmetry in the participants' responses as a function of the wording of the items, as well as the different responses scales for the PW and NW items. This asymmetry in the participants' responses as a function of the wording of the items is consistent with results from previous research into wording effects for contrastive survey questions. 71 The extent to which the presence of method effects is linked to the asymmetric pattern of responses and/or to the different response scales for the PW and NW items in the GHQ-12 should be examined in future research. Comparing the current work with previous studies into the factorial structure of the GHQ-12, to our knowledge, this is the first study that tests a comprehensive set of models including method effects associated with both PW and NW items and also explores some demographic correlates of these method effects. Another strength of this work was the fact that it used a large representative sample of workers, but the results might not be generalised to other specific populations, for example, adolescents and elderly retired people. Twitter @jmlosilla, @VivesJ_Research Contributors All authors meet the criteria recommended by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE). All authors made substantial contributions to conception and design, acquisition of data or analysis and interpretation of data. MFR and JGM: drafted the article. JV and JML: critically revised the draft for important intellectual content. JMT: worked in the statistical analysis and interpretation of data. All authors agreed on the final version. Funding This work was supported by the Grant PGC2018-100675-B-I00, Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (Spain). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Disclaimer All authors have agreed to authorship in the indicated order. All authors declare that this paper is an original unpublished work and it is not being submitted elsewhere. All authors do not have any financial interests that might be interpreted as influencing the research, and APA ethical standard were followed in the conduct of the study. Competing interests None declared. Patient consent for publication Not required. Ethics approval The research was not submitted to approval by an institutional review board since this is not a requirement at our universities for this type of study. Ethics approval was not sought for this study since this was a secondary analysis of anonymised data. Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed. Data availability statement Data are available upon reasonable request.Objective Recent studies into the factorial structure of the 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) have shown that it was best represented by a single substantive factor when method effects associated with negatively worded (NW) items are considered. The purpose of the present study was to examine the presence of method effects, and their relationships with demographic covariates, associated with positively worded (PW) and/or NW items. Design A cross-sectional, observational study to compare a comprehensive set of confirmatory factor models, including method effects associated with PW and/or NW items with GHQ-12 responses. Setting Representative sample of all employees living in Catalonia (Spain). Participants 3050 participants (44.6% women) who responded the Second Catalonian Survey of Working Conditions. Results A confirmatory factor analysis showed that the best fitting model was a unidimensional model with two additional uncorrelated method factors associated with PW and NW items. Furthermore, structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed that method effects were differentially related to both the sex and age of the respondents. Conclusion Individual differences related to sex and age can help to identify respondents who are prone to answering PW and NW items differently. Consequently, it is desirable that both the constructs of interest as well as the effects of method factors are considered in SEM models as a means of avoiding the drawing of inaccurate conclusions about the relationships between the substantive factors

An Experimental Investigation of the Adsorption of a Phosphonic Acid on the Anatase TiO2(101) Surface

A combination of synchrotron radiation photoelectron spectroscopy and near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy has been used to study the adsorption of phenylphosphonic acid (PPA) on anatase TiO2(101) single crystal at coverages of 0.15 monolayer (ML) and 0.85 ML. The photoelectron spectroscopy data suggest that at 0.15 ML coverage PPA adsorbs in a bidentate geometry following deprotonation of both phosphonate hydroxyl groups, leaving the P═O group unbound. At 0.85 ML there is a shift to a mixed bidentate/monodentate binding mode. The carbon K-edge NEXAFS spectra were recorded at two azimuths. Our calculations show that for PPA on anatase TiO2(101) the phenyl ring is oriented 65 ± 4° away from the surface plane with an azimuthal twist of 57 ± 11° away from the [101] azimuth

Selenium content in soils from Murcia Region (SE, Spain)

The objective of this study was to determine the selenium content in soils from the Region of Murcia (SE, Spain) and to study the possible relationship between mineralogical composition, soil properties and selenium content. In addition, generic reference level (GRL) for selenium was determined according to Spanish legislation. For this study, 490 samples were selected in areas subjected to agricultural activity or abandoned agricultural soils with natural vegetation. Five different zones were established in order to study selenium variability. Four different mineralogical groups were established, based on significant relationship with the mineralogical composition, and each sample was included in one mineralogical group. The results showed that the concentration of selenium is correlated with the electrical conductivity, sulphate content and with the mineralogical composition, particularly positively with quartz and in a negative way with calcite percentage. In addition, selenium level was positively correlated with the phyllosilicate content. Established GRL for selenium varies with the mineralogical group, having a great transcendence from the legal and economic points of view